Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by Midbay:
Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
USA Today mock draft has Denver drafting a QB.
3rd year chance of being a contender with that route... I'm going with %15
Though there is a lot of young talent on that team, it would seem a waste of some very productive years to saddle the team with the time that would be required to get a draftee up to speed.
I just dont understand why it seems to be a foregone conclusion from you, midbay and others that whoever the Broncos could draft wont be good until year 3. There have been plenty of examples throughout history (and multiple in recent history) of QBs having productive rookie years and being really good in year 2.
This is considered a poor draft class and the hit rate on QBs good enough to make you a contender just isn't that good in any event. Examples of exceptions exist, but the probability is not great. I'm not dismissing the possibility, but trying to be realistic about the chances.
At some point teams have to figure in some probability of success into their decision matrix. If Jimmy gives you some % chance of being a contender next year, how does that compare to your chances through a draft?
Your average year doesn't have a guy with Jimmy's % come up for bid.
Combine that with dj43's point about the current roster quality... what are the chances the roster is still contender quality by the time your young QB becomes the person you hope he can be. Now stack probabilities and make a choice.