Originally posted by BamaNiner:
Originally posted by NinerBuff:Originally posted by BamaNiner:Originally posted by Franchise408:Originally posted by 91til:I got your point but you don't know "for certain" that those two extra picks that we gave up (since we would have had to use one pick anyway, even if we picked someone else) would somehow make this huge difference in the talent on the roster as you contend.
Its two first round picks, which are valuable, I get it. But in the case of this year it's the 29th overall pick, far from a "sure thing." The draft as I'm sure you know is a crap shoot anyway.
We don't know how good Trey is going to be. The team is betting he'll be good enough to offset the two first rounders we used to move up for him. They showed their confidence in the player partly by how much they were willing to give up for him. You can disagree with that evaluation but we're just going to have to see how it works out. As others have pointed out, first round picks can just as easily turn into Solomon Thomas as Nick Bosa.
In addition you don't factor in the ~$27M savings from moving Jimmy, or the draft pick compensation from that eventual deal, which will both help to offset the loss of draft capital and allow us to add talent to the roster.
I'm not saying it wasn't a risk, but any pick is a risk. If we'd kept that pick 29 overall this year whoever we picked would be a risk. The FO is betting on Trey and only time will tell.
In addition to the extra 2 first rounders, there was also a 3rd rounder in there as well. It was a total of 4 picks, for 1 player, to give us an improvement from about a 12-15ish range QB, to a 7-16ish QB.
I don't think that sort of narrow gap is worth FOUR picks.
I am 100% on board with selecting a new QB to move on from Jimmy. I like him a lot, but I also recognize that he is - at best - around a 12ish range QB, and probably more consistently, lower than that. We had the #12 pick - a great opportunity to get a QB that we could develop behind him.
That #29 pick (and next year's first and third rounders) could have been depth for our secondary, which was probably our weakest unit all year. It could have been used for o-line depth, another area of need, especially considering Laken Tomlinson's pending free agency, the age factor of Alex Mack, and whatever happens with McGlinchey, if we retain him, or let him walk to try to get something better. That's 3 significant picks for a team that has far more than one position of need.
If we still had Brian Hoyer, or god forbid our best QB was someone like CJ Beathard, making a trade to move up would have been a lot different. But we have a good QB already, one that we are already Super Bowl contenders with. That doesn't mean sign him to another 5 year contract and keep him for the long haul, but it does mean that trading away a large amount of high draft picks to marginally improve the position at best is very short sighted. We may end up with a slightly better QB, but with less resources to address other positions of need, are very likely to have a weaker overall roster. The team then traded away assets to get weaker.
No, #29 is hardly a lock to be a sure fire hall of famer, sure. But we traded away 3 additional chances at good, quality players, on a roster that needs good, quality players.
You talk about Jimmy's cap #, and that is a great benefit. But now that we don't have draft picks, we need to use free agency to fill those holes on our roster, which can likely mean overspending.
I would have felt much more comfortable with the 49ers sticking at #12, selecting whoever fell there, whether it was Mac Jones, or even if Trey Lance fell that far as some people have speculated he could have, kept the future draft picks, and ensured a stronger overall roster, even if it meant having a slightly less exciting QB prospect.
Not to mention, how long is it going to take Trey Lance to even reach that 7-16 range? Because as it stands right now, we STILL have the worst QB in the division, and very likely have the worst QB on the field in any game we play next year. So we can probably just wipe out one entire year from our already dwindling window because of the decision to trade away everything to get off of Jimmy.
Beautiful post
I guess it comes down to what your goal is. If being competitive and making the playoffs year in and year out, but never truly being a SB contender is adequate, then the Mac Jones / Jimmy Garoppolo' of the world will work.
If actually winning a championship is the goal, then you need more from your QB. Will Lance be that guy, who knows. But at a minimum, he has the potential to be a Josh Allen, Pat Mahomes, Justin Herbert type. The type of QB vying for championships over the next decade. The Pats with Mac will compete, but in similar fashion to Jimmy, when it comes down to it, the running game and defense won't get you all the way over the hump.
If we picked Jones at 12, we'd secure ourselves a decade of winning seasons and maybe even a few SB runs, but like Jimmy, those seasons would come up short when the run game and defense slips and the game is won or lost with the QB.
I hope Lance will get there, I'm assuming most here agree. Even if he fails, we at least took a shot with a QB that COULD get there, not settling for one that cannot, even if his floor is higher.
Unless it's Brady or Manning, the team around you is winning Super Bowls. Here are the active qbs that have done so:
Mahomes-he's shown the last two years you can't do it alone
Flacco
Foles
Wilson
Rodgers- almost in Brady and Manning's league
Jimmy G and Matt Ryan were a Kyle Shannahan 4th quarter away from a super bowl.
Now we have a qb who has a long way to go before being able to hit the intermediate, drive sustaining throws to even being a serviceable starter. And it costs 3 1st round and 1 3rd round chance to draft a starter ti strengthen the roster. They weakened a super bowl roster for a chance at a better qb in the future, it possibly cost us a championship this year/ could've drafted a starter at 12.
What makes you say he has a long way to go?
The Suoer Volw caliber roster around him will only get stronger with t b e money saved at the QB position.
