QB Brock Purdy Thread

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
So how much did the Deebo TD pass that was dead on the money weigh into the equation? That was clutch and essentially put the game away. The other TD pass to Bell was clutch also. Just trying to wrap my head around how a QB with zero clutch passes and was simply along for the ride scored higher against the same defense?

What is there to wrap your head around? He didn't look good for much of the 1st half. Is the formula supposed to just scratch that out?

It had him at 8-9% better than average. Live with it. You don't ask numbers to match up with one's own personal feelings. This isin't the point of formulas like QBR.

Attacking QBR isin't going to suddenly make him a better QB than he is right now.

He looked pretty good in the face incessant blitzing. Of course our comments are subjective, but he looked good given what he was dealing with.

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
I was watching Around The Horn yesterday, and they said the weakness for the 49ers was Purdy, I don't see it.

The 49ers weakness is their OL. The fact that Purdy is still performing without time to throw shows he's a strength, not a weakness.

Originally posted by Niners99:

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
I was watching Around The Horn yesterday, and they said the weakness for the 49ers was Purdy, I don't see it.

The 49ers weakness is their OL. The fact that Purdy is still performing without time to throw shows he's a strength, not a weakness.

Anybody with eyes can see Purdy is a great strength. He's playing like one of the best QB'S in the league. These other fools need to get their glasses checked.

Not talking about anyone on here, but I'm already seeing people criticizing Brock Purdy the same way they were Jimmy Garoppolo. Makes me laugh. Stick to NBC Bay Area for your 49ers coverage

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:

Originally posted by Niners99:

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
I was watching Around The Horn yesterday, and they said the weakness for the 49ers was Purdy, I don't see it.

The 49ers weakness is their OL. The fact that Purdy is still performing without time to throw shows he's a strength, not a weakness.

Anybody with eyes can see Purdy is a great strength. He's playing like one of the best QB'S in the league. These other fools need to get their glasses checked.

Theyre a mouthpiece for these butthurt scouts that badly missed on their draft evaluation on Purdy

the sick part though is if he was a Giant or Jet, he would EASILY be the biggest story in sports

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by swayze:

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
So how much did the Deebo TD pass that was dead on the money weigh into the equation? That was clutch and essentially put the game away. The other TD pass to Bell was clutch also. Just trying to wrap my head around how a QB with zero clutch passes and was simply along for the ride scored higher against the same defense?

What is there to wrap your head around? He didn't look good for much of the 1st half. Is the formula supposed to just scratch that out?

It had him at 8-9% better than average. Live with it. You don't ask numbers to match up with one's own personal feelings. This isin't the point of formulas like QBR.

Attacking QBR isin't going to suddenly make him a better QB than he is right now.

From purely a statistical analysis standpoint, it would help to know what the standard deviation around average/ QBR 50 is. Is 58 one standard deviation better than average ? Likely somewhat less.

The other thing about QBR is that I believe the successful plays are weighted by how much they changed the teams expected win % (and negative plays such as turnovers by how much they hurt win %). So the Deebo TD, since our expected win % was already high at that point, probably didn't move the needle very much and is thereby weighted less.

To me QBR is a nice data point, but QBR and a lot of other stats like PFF's stats have a lot of judgment bias (in a sense) in them. I.e. What exactly is air yards, a turnover worthy play, etc... those, to me are, more about judgement vs just being a Scrivner and jotting down facts. Did he make the catch or not. Did he throw a pass, or not. Those are less judgement calls than what the advanced analytical metrics' call for - in my opinion. So they have to be taken with a lot of salt (in a sense).

There's NEVER going to be 1 stat that tells us everything. Why is everyone looking for that??

Give it a season and QBR gives you ALOT better of an idea than the effect a QB is having on the game than passer rating.

Doesn't mean it's the holy grail of all stats. If someone thinks they have a better one,....by all means please post it so we can break it down.

At the end of the day, numbers don't make the argument,...they support it!

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by swayze:

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
So how much did the Deebo TD pass that was dead on the money weigh into the equation? That was clutch and essentially put the game away. The other TD pass to Bell was clutch also. Just trying to wrap my head around how a QB with zero clutch passes and was simply along for the ride scored higher against the same defense?

What is there to wrap your head around? He didn't look good for much of the 1st half. Is the formula supposed to just scratch that out?

It had him at 8-9% better than average. Live with it. You don't ask numbers to match up with one's own personal feelings. This isin't the point of formulas like QBR.

Attacking QBR isin't going to suddenly make him a better QB than he is right now.

From purely a statistical analysis standpoint, it would help to know what the standard deviation around average/ QBR 50 is. Is 58 one standard deviation better than average ? Likely somewhat less.

The other thing about QBR is that I believe the successful plays are weighted by how much they changed the teams expected win % (and negative plays such as turnovers by how much they hurt win %). So the Deebo TD, since our expected win % was already high at that point, probably didn't move the needle very much and is thereby weighted less.

To me QBR is a nice data point, but QBR and a lot of other stats like PFF's stats have a lot of judgment bias (in a sense) in them. I.e. What exactly is air yards, a turnover worthy play, etc... those, to me are, more about judgement vs just being a Scrivner and jotting down facts. Did he make the catch or not. Did he throw a pass, or not. Those are less judgement calls than what the advanced analytical metrics' call for - in my opinion. So they have to be taken with a lot of salt (in a sense).

There's NEVER going to be 1 stat that tells us everything. Why is everyone looking for that??

Give it a season and QBR gives you ALOT better of an idea than the effect a QB is having on the game than passer rating.

Doesn't mean it's the holy grail of all stats. If someone thinks they have a better one,....by all means please post it so we can break it down.

At the end of the day, numbers don't make the argument,...they support it!

Its not just one stat. It is a group of efficiency stats that are important to me. TD%, TWP%, BTT%, 1STD% and 3rd down passing conversion rate are those stats. Passer rating and QBR are merely stats for those who do not wish to do their own research. They're cool to look at and all but they don't mean much.

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by swayze:

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
So how much did the Deebo TD pass that was dead on the money weigh into the equation? That was clutch and essentially put the game away. The other TD pass to Bell was clutch also. Just trying to wrap my head around how a QB with zero clutch passes and was simply along for the ride scored higher against the same defense?

What is there to wrap your head around? He didn't look good for much of the 1st half. Is the formula supposed to just scratch that out?

It had him at 8-9% better than average. Live with it. You don't ask numbers to match up with one's own personal feelings. This isin't the point of formulas like QBR.

Attacking QBR isin't going to suddenly make him a better QB than he is right now.

From purely a statistical analysis standpoint, it would help to know what the standard deviation around average/ QBR 50 is. Is 58 one standard deviation better than average ? Likely somewhat less.

The other thing about QBR is that I believe the successful plays are weighted by how much they changed the teams expected win % (and negative plays such as turnovers by how much they hurt win %). So the Deebo TD, since our expected win % was already high at that point, probably didn't move the needle very much and is thereby weighted less.

To me QBR is a nice data point, but QBR and a lot of other stats like PFF's stats have a lot of judgment bias (in a sense) in them. I.e. What exactly is air yards, a turnover worthy play, etc... those, to me are, more about judgement vs just being a Scrivner and jotting down facts. Did he make the catch or not. Did he throw a pass, or not. Those are less judgement calls than what the advanced analytical metrics' call for - in my opinion. So they have to be taken with a lot of salt (in a sense).

There's NEVER going to be 1 stat that tells us everything. Why is everyone looking for that??

Give it a season and QBR gives you ALOT better of an idea than the effect a QB is having on the game than passer rating.

Doesn't mean it's the holy grail of all stats. If someone thinks they have a better one,....by all means please post it so we can break it down.

At the end of the day, numbers don't make the argument,...they support it!

Its not just one stat. It is a group of efficiency stats that are important to me. TD%, TWP%, BTT%, 1STD% and 3rd down passing conversion rate are those stats. Passer rating and QBR are merely stats for those who do not wish to do their own research. They're cool to look at and all but they don't mean much.

Where does he rank this season in the stats that you think are important?

Originally posted by YACBros85:
So a few off throws in the first quarter weighs heavier than anything he did afterward including the 2 TD passes? And a QB against the same defense that was simply along for the ride and had very little to no impact on the outcome of the game is graded higher?

Not really trying to defend QBR, but discussing for my own understanding and hopefully to help share it. So, for instance, it looks like the throw that Kittle had to break up on the first drive dropped our win probability by 1%--that's without knowing how much they penalize for a TWP--whereas by the time he threw the TD pass to Deebo our win probably was already over 98%.

Goofy? Yeah, sure. But if they grade every QB that way it should shake out. A big part of the problem with QBR is that they aren't transparent so we can't see how they graded any given throw or play, who they attributed blame to, etc. In the NYG/DAL game Dak had a deep throw early on that seems to have boosted their win probability by about 8% which is seems to weigh heavily in his QBR for that game.

Originally posted by RiceOwensStokes:

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:

Originally posted by Niners99:

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
I was watching Around The Horn yesterday, and they said the weakness for the 49ers was Purdy, I don't see it.

The 49ers weakness is their OL. The fact that Purdy is still performing without time to throw shows he's a strength, not a weakness.

Anybody with eyes can see Purdy is a great strength. He's playing like one of the best QB'S in the league. These other fools need to get their glasses checked.

Theyre a mouthpiece for these butthurt scouts that badly missed on their draft evaluation on Purdy

the sick part though is if he was a Giant or Jet, he would EASILY be the biggest story in sports

A lot of that is correct and happening.

Originally posted by swayze:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
So a few off throws in the first quarter weighs heavier than anything he did afterward including the 2 TD passes? And a QB against the same defense that was simply along for the ride and had very little to no impact on the outcome of the game is graded higher?

Not really trying to defend QBR, but discussing for my own understanding and hopefully to help share it. So, for instance, it looks like the throw that Kittle had to break up on the first drive dropped our win probability by 1%--that's without knowing how much they penalize for a TWP--whereas by the time he threw the TD pass to Deebo our win probably was already over 98%.

Goofy? Yeah, sure. But if they grade every QB that way it should shake out. A big part of the problem with QBR is that they aren't transparent so we can't see how they graded any given throw or play, who they attributed blame to, etc. In the NYG/DAL game Dak had a deep throw early on that seems to have boosted their win probability by about 8% which is seems to weigh heavily in his QBR for that game.

That's good context. Any stat that tries to sum up a QBs overall performance into a single number is going to be flawed to some degree. At the end of the day, the best QBs should also be reflected as the best QBs in either QBR or QB rating, but the path to get there can be problematic and filled with outliers that don't match with observable reality.

Purdy's PFF grades are weird to me too.

Week 1 @ Steelers - 73.2
Week 2 @ Rams - 65.5
Week 3 vs Giants - 61.1

That would rank him 15th overall among NFL QBs for PFF. He certainly is playing better than 15th.

So, we've seen Purdy in about 11 games now (excluding mop up last year and Eagles game with no elbow). So far he's yet to have a bad game, which to me is unprecedented. I think he'll have one at some point soon, and this place will probably implode that day, but for now let's not worry about that.

So, if this is our QB—this guy who has led this team these last 11 games—who do we have? Let's extrapolate these 11 games out for a career, and assume for the sake of simplicity that Purdy performs no better or worse; he doesn't improve, nor does he regress. The Purdy of today is the Purdy of the next ten years. What does that give us?

I think this gives us a HOF QB. If this is Purdy's baseline, this level of play, at what point is it okay to start acknowledging that he's got HOF talent? After 16 games, two seasons, three? Obviously it still feels so premature, but this guy won't give us a bad game to sink our teeth into, after 2/3s of a season's worth of games. Crazy.

People are having a hard time realizing they're witnessing something historic.

Freak athletic traits are only a means to an end. Purdy gets the same results a different way. The path does not matter, only the destination. Enjoy it.

Originally posted by swayze:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
So a few off throws in the first quarter weighs heavier than anything he did afterward including the 2 TD passes? And a QB against the same defense that was simply along for the ride and had very little to no impact on the outcome of the game is graded higher?

Not really trying to defend QBR, but discussing for my own understanding and hopefully to help share it. So, for instance, it looks like the throw that Kittle had to break up on the first drive dropped our win probability by 1%--that's without knowing how much they penalize for a TWP--whereas by the time he threw the TD pass to Deebo our win probably was already over 98%.

Goofy? Yeah, sure. But if they grade every QB that way it should shake out. A big part of the problem with QBR is that they aren't transparent so we can't see how they graded any given throw or play, who they attributed blame to, etc. In the NYG/DAL game Dak had a deep throw early on that seems to have boosted their win probability by about 8% which is seems to weigh heavily in his QBR for that game.

So what QB's do early in the game weighs more than what he does in the 2nd half of a game?