QB Brock Purdy Thread

Originally posted by RiceOwensStokes:

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:

Originally posted by Niners99:

Originally posted by AB81Rules:
I was watching Around The Horn yesterday, and they said the weakness for the 49ers was Purdy, I don't see it.

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The 49ers weakness is their OL. The fact that Purdy is still performing without time to throw shows he's a strength, not a weakness.

Anybody with eyes can see Purdy is a great strength. He's playing like one of the best QB'S in the league. These other fools need to get their glasses checked.

Theyre a mouthpiece for these butthurt scouts that badly missed on their draft evaluation on Purdy

the sick part though is if he was a Giant or Jet, he would EASILY be the biggest story in sports

You are right about this.

Originally posted by Chance:
So, we've seen Purdy in about 11 games now (excluding mop up last year and Eagles game with no elbow). So far he's yet to have a bad game, which to me is unprecedented. I think he'll have one at some point soon, and this place will probably implode that day, but for now let's not worry about that.

So, if this is our QB—this guy who has led this team these last 11 games—who do we have? Let's extrapolate these 11 games out for a career, and assume for the sake of simplicity that Purdy performs no better or worse; he doesn't improve, nor does he regress. The Purdy of today is the Purdy of the next ten years. What does that give us?

I think this gives us a HOF QB. If this is Purdy's baseline, this level of play, at what point is it okay to start acknowledging that he's got HOF talent? After 16 games, two seasons, three? Obviously it still feels so premature, but this guy won't give us a bad game to sink our teeth into, after 2/3s of a season's worth of games. Crazy.

He's Hall of Fame if he plays like this and he will probably get better.

Originally posted by 49ersRing:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by swayze:

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
So how much did the Deebo TD pass that was dead on the money weigh into the equation? That was clutch and essentially put the game away. The other TD pass to Bell was clutch also. Just trying to wrap my head around how a QB with zero clutch passes and was simply along for the ride scored higher against the same defense?

What is there to wrap your head around? He didn't look good for much of the 1st half. Is the formula supposed to just scratch that out?

It had him at 8-9% better than average. Live with it. You don't ask numbers to match up with one's own personal feelings. This isin't the point of formulas like QBR.

Attacking QBR isin't going to suddenly make him a better QB than he is right now.

From purely a statistical analysis standpoint, it would help to know what the standard deviation around average/ QBR 50 is. Is 58 one standard deviation better than average ? Likely somewhat less.

The other thing about QBR is that I believe the successful plays are weighted by how much they changed the teams expected win % (and negative plays such as turnovers by how much they hurt win %). So the Deebo TD, since our expected win % was already high at that point, probably didn't move the needle very much and is thereby weighted less.

To me QBR is a nice data point, but QBR and a lot of other stats like PFF's stats have a lot of judgment bias (in a sense) in them. I.e. What exactly is air yards, a turnover worthy play, etc... those, to me are, more about judgement vs just being a Scrivner and jotting down facts. Did he make the catch or not. Did he throw a pass, or not. Those are less judgement calls than what the advanced analytical metrics' call for - in my opinion. So they have to be taken with a lot of salt (in a sense).

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There's NEVER going to be 1 stat that tells us everything. Why is everyone looking for that??

Give it a season and QBR gives you ALOT better of an idea than the effect a QB is having on the game than passer rating.

Doesn't mean it's the holy grail of all stats. If someone thinks they have a better one,....by all means please post it so we can break it down.

At the end of the day, numbers don't make the argument,...they support it!

Its not just one stat. It is a group of efficiency stats that are important to me. TD%, TWP%, BTT%, 1STD% and 3rd down passing conversion rate are those stats. Passer rating and QBR are merely stats for those who do not wish to do their own research. They're cool to look at and all but they don't mean much.

Where does he rank this season in the stats that you think are important?

Lets wait until after this weeks games so that everyone has had a chance to play their 3rd game. I will do the work and I will post my resluts.

Yet another 30 points....

I'm going to laugh at all these hater pundits and meatheads on social media who hate on him. When he wins the Super Bowl and is named MVP it's going to be a glorious night.

I'd rather everyone keeps on criticizing, undermining, and underestimating Brock and the 49ers. We should continue playing with chips on our shoulders, continue being humble and being the underdog, and continue moving under the radar.

Originally posted by 49erF90:
I'd rather everyone keeps on criticizing, undermining, and underestimating Brock and the 49ers. We should continue playing with chips on our shoulders, continue being humble and being the underdog, and continue moving under the radar.

If we beat DAL, there is no moving under the radar.

Originally posted by YACBros85:
So what QB's do early in the game weighs more than what he does in the 2nd half of a game?

It would depend on if the game is close or not in the second half.

There are other factors in play as well--QBR seems to give more credit for plays made on the road than at home, for instance.

There's other subjectivity and/or stuff we can't see--the entire ESPN win probability framework depends on a number they assign at the beginning of a game, and we don't have clear insight into how that number is generated either. It is basically a measure of opponent strength, but (especially early in the season) thats a guess, not a fact. I don't think they retroactively go back and adjust that, either, so if they thought the giants were very good in game 1 and recognized they stink by week 3, Dak gets a better score for that opponent than Brock does. But once again if it's applied across the board it should be a wash--Brock gets credit for beating a Pittsburgh team that may not be as good as we thought, etc

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by 49erF90:
I'd rather everyone keeps on criticizing, undermining, and underestimating Brock and the 49ers. We should continue playing with chips on our shoulders, continue being humble and being the underdog, and continue moving under the radar.

If we beat DAL, there is no moving under the radar.

Yeah but I bet you even if we beat Dallas, there will still be a lot of non- believers.

Originally posted by WestCoastForever:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Giedi:
Agree about the lotto aspect of Brock getting drafted. Anytime you can get a (potentially) generational talent like Purdy, that's pretty much a lotto pick. I'll give a ton of Credit to Kyle, though, for basically cutting Sudfeld and keeping Brock.

Can we please pump the breaks for gods sake? LOL

Generational talent? Yeah, Brock is not a generational talent. As good as I think he is and expect him to be, this is not a realistic label for him.

Nah. All gas, no brakes. When you finally see what he sees, you've missed out on a lot of joy.

I don't think you and Giedi understand what generational talent means lol.

Originally posted by GoreGoreGore:

Originally posted by WestCoastForever:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by Giedi:
Agree about the lotto aspect of Brock getting drafted. Anytime you can get a (potentially) generational talent like Purdy, that's pretty much a lotto pick. I'll give a ton of Credit to Kyle, though, for basically cutting Sudfeld and keeping Brock.

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Can we please pump the breaks for gods sake? LOL

Generational talent? Yeah, Brock is not a generational talent. As good as I think he is and expect him to be, this is not a realistic label for him.

Nah. All gas, no brakes. When you finally see what he sees, you've missed out on a lot of joy.

I don't think you and Giedi understand what generational talent means lol.

To me generational means upper-echelon of the HOF QBs. Guys like Mahomes, Brady, Montana. It's certainly within Purdy's ceiling thusfar, but far too early for that moniker. Guys like Brees, Aikman, Elway, Young, Favre, Kelly, Wilson, etc all all examples of HOF (or HOF caliber) QBs that I would not consider generational. Being generational means you transcend the game, and bring it to a new level.

30 for 30 for 30 Purdy

They could've had 2 scores more in each of those games

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by 49erF90:
I'd rather everyone keeps on criticizing, undermining, and underestimating Brock and the 49ers. We should continue playing with chips on our shoulders, continue being humble and being the underdog, and continue moving under the radar.

If we beat DAL, there is no moving under the radar.

Somehow you'll have folks riding Philly's d**k still

Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
Here's one for the "weakest arm in the NFL" crowd

After all the misfires on the first drive, Purdy hit a nice throw to Kittle ona corner route by scooting to his left to buy another half second before layering this throw to Kittle. Against a 6-man rush. Slow-mo so you can see it. #49ers #FTTB pic.twitter.com/mldlzvZasR

— Rich (@richjmadrid) September 22, 2023

Great 49ers gift ideas ⇨

Ball placement was stellar.

Originally posted by 49erF90:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by 49erF90:
I'd rather everyone keeps on criticizing, undermining, and underestimating Brock and the 49ers. We should continue playing with chips on our shoulders, continue being humble and being the underdog, and continue moving under the radar.

If we beat DAL, there is no moving under the radar.

Yeah but I bet you even if we beat Dallas, there will still be a lot of non- believers.

He already beat Dallas, IN THE PLAYOFFS. And they still refuse to give him his credit. He will need to at least get a pro bowl on his resume to shut the haters up