QB Brock Purdy Thread

Originally posted by RiceOwensStokes:

Originally posted by Heroism:
"I'm talking about a top 10, maybe top 5, quarterback in the NFL right now."

"This young man has it."@nateburleson says Brock Purdy might be a Top 5 QB in the NFL 👀 pic.twitter.com/PM1iw0bEFj

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 24, 2023

Some NFL scout just punched a hole into the wall.

Heh, more like 31+.

Originally posted by RiceOwensStokes:
Some NFL scout just punched a hole into the wall.

A Chicago Bears fan just dropped to his knees in a Wal-Mart.

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by YACBros85:


I am still trying to figure out how ALMOST INT's weigh heavy in that QBR stat but ALMOST TD's don't weigh anything.

Because QBR doesn't make any sense. It's arbitrary and subjective. His rating tells you more.

Wrong. If you go to ESPN and look at the rating, it lists EPA from both passing and rushing, as well as sacks and penalties (EPA includes situational data). Additionally, it lists the points above an average QB that the QB in question did. The only things not listed there are how all those inputs are put together.

As EPA is decently explained on many sites (such as this one: https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/breakdowns/epa-explained/ ), the only thing "arbitrary" is the degree to which someone is willing to put in the effort to understand what is available to understand (in your case, that is a hard 0). As far as subjectivity, the data they gather is done by a bot, so it's only as subjective as the program itself. The real subjectivity in Total QBR is just how each of the input data is weighted.

It tells FAR more than passer rating about the QUARTERBACK.

Originally posted by RiceOwensStokes:
Jimmy G haters are slowly transitioning into Purdy haters in real time. Sad to see, really.

No, what we have is people who can't grasp nuance will continue to fail to grasp nuance. I am a Purdy FAN, a big one, and have said he plays like Mahomes in the 15 yeard window, but the question was specific to Total QBR, and so I answered the question to the best of my ability based on what I know about it. I pointed out the FACT OF REALITY that while Brock's touchdown to Deebo was beautiful and perfect (which I even argued against 9moon about, as he seems to think it was a bad pass, LMAO, when it was clearly a deliberate back shoulder throw), it was also thrown at a point in which winning the game was almost a certainty, thereby making it quite the opposite of "clutch." As such, if we assume Total QBR weights every pass by how much it affects whether or not a team wins or loses, it would be clear that Brock's first third down converting pass probably was more important than the touchdown to Deebo in terms of its effect on win probability. That would rationally explain in part why Prescott got the higher Total QBR, which was the entire point of the discussion.

But sadly 100% of this went right over your head, for reasons I let you try to figure out.

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by YACBros85:


I am still trying to figure out how ALMOST INT's weigh heavy in that QBR stat but ALMOST TD's don't weigh anything.

Because QBR doesn't make any sense. It's arbitrary and subjective. His rating tells you more.

Wrong. If you go to ESPN and look at the rating, it lists EPA from both passing and rushing, as well as sacks and penalties (EPA includes situational data). Additionally, it lists the points above an average QB that the QB in question did. The only things not listed there are how all those inputs are put together.

As EPA is decently explained on many sites (such as this one: https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/breakdowns/epa-explained/ ), the only thing "arbitrary" is the degree to which someone is willing to put in the effort to understand what is available to understand (in your case, that is a hard 0). As far as subjectivity, the data they gather is done by a bot, so it's only as subjective as the program itself. The real subjectivity in Total QBR is just how each of the input data is weighted.

It tells FAR more than passer rating about the QUARTERBACK.

* TD / Int ratio
* Wins

Those tell you the most. Purdy is awesome at those and that's what matters.

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by YACBros85:


I am still trying to figure out how ALMOST INT's weigh heavy in that QBR stat but ALMOST TD's don't weigh anything.

Because QBR doesn't make any sense. It's arbitrary and subjective. His rating tells you more.

Wrong. If you go to ESPN and look at the rating, it lists EPA from both passing and rushing, as well as sacks and penalties (EPA includes situational data). Additionally, it lists the points above an average QB that the QB in question did. The only things not listed there are how all those inputs are put together.

As EPA is decently explained on many sites (such as this one: https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/breakdowns/epa-explained/ ), the only thing "arbitrary" is the degree to which someone is willing to put in the effort to understand what is available to understand (in your case, that is a hard 0). As far as subjectivity, the data they gather is done by a bot, so it's only as subjective as the program itself. The real subjectivity in Total QBR is just how each of the input data is weighted.

It tells FAR more than passer rating about the QUARTERBACK.

* TD / Int ratio
* Wins

Those tell you the most. Purdy is awesome at those and that's what matters.

TDs certainly are important. First down percentage, however, is very important too, and so is third down percentage (that is, how often a pass gains a first down or how often a pass converts a third down). When I looked at that stuff a couple years ago, statistically speaking (based on one season), it turned out that passes gaining first downs were more important than touchdowns. Looking at about four years of data, it may be that TD% is a bit more important than that one year of data showed.

But I'm tired of this stupid argument, so I think I'm going to take those four years of data I accumulated and remake my own QB metric, which, in my arrogant opinion, will end up being superior to either passer rating or Total QBR, since (1) it is based on which stats correlate with wins, (2) it separates QB contribution from team contribution to an extent like QBR claims to do, and (3) the calculation will be transparent. The only place it will lack in QBR is it will not be weighted play by play. But over the course of the game, I think such metrics end up overvaluing and undervaluing single plays because you cannot see what the future holds. What the data from years past says is important may turn out in hindsight not to matter that much to whether or not the game is won, and vice versa.

But one quick metric to gauge roughly how good a QB is doing, is Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (ANY/A) is among the very best, and it's a simple little number. Brock is currently 5th in the NFL at that. Of course, he's also 5th in passer rating. And yet, he's third in Total QBR. That "trash" stat you think is arbitrary. One would think a 49ers homer would LIKE the stat that puts their QB the highest, but I suppose perhaps not.

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Because QBR doesn't make any sense. It's arbitrary and subjective. His rating tells you more.

No it doesn't. Neither are great individual stats but at least qbr tries to figure the individual value of the qb subjective or not. QB rating is the equivalent of Batting average.

Originally posted by RiceOwensStokes:
Jimmy G haters are slowly transitioning into Purdy haters in real time. Sad to see, really.

No one hates Purdy on this site. Nothing wrong with having a critical lens however.

Originally posted by RiceOwensStokes:
Some NFL scout just punched a hole into the wall.

"But he isn't 6'4, 230 lbs athletic with a cannon arm."

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Because QBR doesn't make any sense. It's arbitrary and subjective. His rating tells you more.

No it doesn't. Neither are great individual stats but at least qbr tries to figure the individual value of the qb subjective or not. QB rating is the equivalent of Batting average.

One simply thing that you could do that would at least slightly improve passer rating is multiply it by completed air yards per pass attempt (divided by 10, so it's just a small adjustment). That would at least give a coefficient which adds one tiny thing to distinguish between QBs who are doing most of the work and QBs who are getting more help from their WRs.

Should you do that, the top five passer rating QBs go from this:

Jordan Love 118.7
Kirk Cousins 114.2
Jared Goff 109.0
Russell Wilson 108.5
Brock Purdy 106.3

to this:

Jarod Goff 55.6
Kirk Cousins 53.7
Rusesll Wilson 48.8
Brock Purdy 45.7
Jordan Love 39.2

That at least puts Jordan Love where he belongs rather than as the best QB in the NFL (lol). It would also rightly put Tua where he belongs, ahead of all these guys at 58.7. (maybe I'm trashing on Love but I'm not convinced yet. The competition has been ass, and today he's not looking too great so far).

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by RiceOwensStokes:
Jimmy G haters are slowly transitioning into Purdy haters in real time. Sad to see, really.

No one hates Purdy on this site. Nothing wrong with having a critical lens however.

It's important to support a player while also holding him accountable.

it's okay to say Purdy is awesome but has things to work on. No one is ever perfect. Purdy has played incredible but has left a lot on the table too. It's not just on him, it's a team effort. I just don't like the arguement that everything had to be perfect around a player to judge them. Very rarely is a play perfect, especially in the playoffs. So they need to be able to function highly in chaos.

Originally posted by Jcool:

Originally posted by ritz126:
After Arizona a schedule of Dallas, Browns, Vikings, and Jaguars

Thats going to be a pretty brutal strech of tough games. No one will be able to claim we didnt play anyone good . 3 of those teams have very good Ds with Cowboys and Browns potentially being in top 5

Browns, vikings and Jaguars are a combined 2-4 how is that a brutal stretch?

Records don't mean anything, those teams are talented and they are on the road

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Wait, so you believe a touchdown on second down, while in field goal range, when the score was 23 to 12 with six minutes minutes left is super clutch? The game was already a two score game and about to be extended with a field goal. If anything, that touchdown pass ought to matter less because the chances of the 49ers winning were already well above 90% at that point in the game.* As for the touchdown to Bell, the score was 3 to 3 in the middle of the second quarter. A great third down pass, but clutch? Come on. Clutch is when you're losing late in the fourth and convert a third and long.

*As you can see here, the 49ers chances of losing the game during that "clutch" moment were minuscule.
https://live.numberfire.com/nfl/8330

I mean really? Our win probability was already 98.79% and you think that's a clutch moment?

Like I said, homeritus is a dangerous thing. I am not knocking Purdy. He played well. He made some mistakes early, sure, but they didn't cost the team, and after he settled in he played like a Franchise QB. Negate the early portion and he played Super Bowl winning quarterbacking.

Total QBR takes into account situation, but also opponent's strength. The Jets have one of the best defenses in football. The Giants not so much. That's probably a big reason for the difference in and of itself.

As has been said before. Total QBR is not perfect. But it's still better than passer rating, which doesn't differentiate between player contributions to a given play.

II think that's the weirdest post I've read in a long time. I guess it comes down to the difference between "clutch" and "super clutch"

Watching a 49er quarterback throw us past the red zone for seven points is like water to a thirsty man in the desert for tour shanny offense. Yeah it's pretty clutch to turn a game that still has possibility to have some kind of crazy ending into a laugher with four or five minutes left? Yeah that's what Champions do. They shut the door they don't leave it open like we've had a tendency to do for the last few years. I think you've watched this team enough to know that it was a pretty impressive play. As far as it being either "clutch" or "super clutch" honestly I don't care you should focus more on consistency how many times has Brock done this in the last 10 games. Quite a few. That's the big picture. Not quibbling over some dumb Advanced stat that's complete opinion anyway. Sheesh. Talk about an agenda.

I am still trying to figure out how ALMOST INT's weigh heavy in that QBR stat but ALMOST TD's don't weigh anything.

I don't know for sure if almost INTs even do. I just know if I were grading QB performance, they would (assuming I had access to that data), because it's something the QB does (EDIT: In lieu of that data, for my own statistical analyses I tend to just use on target passing). As would great throws which are dropped, including almost TDs. But if I understand Total QBR, it's based almost entirely on EPA, weighted by various factors like situation and location on the field.

Honestly, my only strife is that if Brock doesn't throw those 2 TD passes against the giants, its essentially a 4 point game in the 4th quarter. While on the flip side, Dak against the same defense won 40-0 without throwing a TD pass, averaging only 6.0 ypa and completing only 54% of his passes. Dak may not have put the ball in harms way but he had no where near the impact Brock had in winning their respective games against the same defense imo. So why did Dak grade higher? It just doesn't make any sense to me if that stat is meant to determine how much of a factor the QB had in winning or losing a game. Who do you personally think had more of an impact on their team winning against the giants?

Brock Purdy is 4-0 against 1st round QBs. Next 1up is Deshaun Watson on 10/15.

• Matt Stafford (1)
• Tua Tagovailoa (5)
• Daniel Jones (6)
• Kenny Pickett (20)

Originally posted by Giedi:
Absolutely agree, *so far, so good.* The only thing I would say with operating with lesser offensive talent, is that the OLine (specially on the right side) needs to be upgraded. You can operate with lesser offensive talent, in my opinion, if you have elite Offensive Line talent. Give Brock 3+ seconds and he can definitely create some passing offensive fireworks. Having said that, in the playoffs and possibly in the Super Bowl, those offensive talent deficiencies will show up, by a better team.

An example of that would be the 49ers vs Chargers, the Chargers were exposed in the super bowl by a more complete team. In other words, I'd like ShanaLynch to keep the offensive firepower up, and not let it diminish - if they want to get to the championship game year in and year out. (easier said that than done for sure, though).

I'm assuming you meant Dolphins, because that Charger team was one of the weakest teams to ever reach a SB.

If Purdy *is* a guy who can be that top 5 type of dude, then he's a player who can elevate those around him. He's going to get the ball out, so OL doesn't have to block a guy for 4+ seconds. He's going to feel the pressure, and maneuver within the pocket and hit the open guy - like he did with that throw to Kittle against the Giants that has been posted. He's going read and recognize pre and post snap, and poor receivers are going to look average, average receivers are going to look good, and good receivers are going to look great.

He's also gonna get paid....and that means other positions will have to be sacrificed. If Shanahan, with his scheme? And assuming he has a guy with *it* in Purdy? There are many ways to skin a cat, but I'd be all for the team to just to load up on defense, and make do with lesser offensive skill guys.