QB Brock Purdy Thread

Originally posted by NCommand:
All he does is win.......2.0

He's a bigger reason of why we win than Jimmy was, don't even start slipping the Jimmy Club stuff in here. Jimmy was not to this team what Brock is.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
These Trey_ning Wheels guys are down to this.

* Almost could have been a bad pass.
* Almost interception.
* Not pretty enough pass.

They can't find actual bad passes. Never losing, throwing touchdowns and winning games is not enough.

LOL who is this guy? A near interception is literally a bad pass. You're confusing bad PLAY with bad PASS. Trey Lance is not a 49er why are you bringing him up?

The reason Brock is winning is because his bad passes aren't usually dangerous (as opposed to Jimmy's—brought up because you're a card carrying Jimmy Club member who just brought up Lance—which are almost always bad reads and almost always into traffic), and Brock's good passes bail out the offensive line. In other words, while Brock is pretty accurate, but he's not the most accurate guy and he sometimes makes bad reads, but he has some Mahomes magic in the short game, he's a god in the medium game, and most importantly, he knows and sees where to go with the ball. He finds the open guy, and he does so as fast as is required by what's going on.

None of that has anything to do with Lance, nor does it mean he doesn't made bad passes. What a ludicrous thing to even argue. Every QB makes bad passes, and it's been a fact that Brock has made at least one bad read and had several inaccurate passes (including many which were completed). But unlike Lance (since you, the card carrying Jimmy Club member brought him up, since you hate Lance because he was drafted to replace Jimmy), his inaccurate passes are still ball park and catchable (while Lance's bad passes tend to be throw to the moon or through the dirt to China).

Writes the bold and then proceeds to launch into a tirade against the 'Jimmy Club'
oh the irony

Not irony, vengeance. Nay, punishment.

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by Waterbear:

Originally posted by riverrunzthruit:
love me some Jimmy Gesus but I sure don't miss the boneheaded plays that he would make in tight games

If only many of you could have been honest about that while he was actually here. There would have been a lot less arguing on the webzone.

Accurate.

same with Trey stans, instead of making excuses for his sorry ass play and been honest that he just plain sucked it would have avoided much needless discussion

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by Giedi:
Yeah, I've forgotten that Marc was a 49er offensive assistant coach back in the day. Glad he still is active in the football world.

He's the guy who got fired in press conference.. 'yeah he's gone'

Yeah, even Eddie - as the years have gone by - acknowledged that he was pretty heartless doing that. Marc didn't even find out he was fired till he heard about it in the news broadcast. That, to me, was a bit unfair. But Eddie wanted winners. He couldn't stand losing.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
My fav gripe in a player thread.. the old well shoot, one day, we may have to pay the man, commensurate with his value

Hopefully after a couple of rings.

Originally posted by Montana:

Originally posted by Giedi:
I'm still a big Jimmy fan, but I think those panic throws come from the fact that he just doesn't have the wheels to get away from a pass rush. He isn't as mobile as Brock, for example. Having said that, if you compare his ability to understand Kyles offense - hands down, Brock is superior to Jimmy. As good as Jimmy is in processing, Brock is much better, and more accurate too. Also, just looking at Jimmy's arm versus Brock's arm - it just feels (to me) that Brock's arm is stronger. It just does, I dont know why.

Brock bumped out 2qbs for a reason..just better. HIM

Brock is better than that Pittsburg QB guy, I think, who was picked in the first round, or something like that. He's been a gem of a QB. He's better than Jimmy as a rookie. Keep in mind Jimmy's been a 7+ year veteran and operating Kyle's offense for several years, and boy did Purdy do a better job than Jimmy in being a Kyle QB **as a ROOKIE**. That's what's so impressive about Brock.

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by Giedi:
Yeah, I've forgotten that Marc was a 49er offensive assistant coach back in the day. Glad he still is active in the football world.

He's the guy who got fired in press conference.. 'yeah he's gone'

Yeah, even Eddie - as the years have gone by - acknowledged that he was pretty heartless doing that. Marc didn't even find out he was fired till he heard about it in the news broadcast. That, to me, was a bit unfair. But Eddie wanted winners. He couldn't stand losing.

Eddie was a bit of a gangster

Originally posted by riverrunzthruit:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by Waterbear:

Originally posted by riverrunzthruit:
love me some Jimmy Gesus but I sure don't miss the boneheaded plays that he would make in tight games

If only many of you could have been honest about that while he was actually here. There would have been a lot less arguing on the webzone.

Accurate.

same with Trey stans, instead of making excuses for his sorry ass play and been honest that he just plain sucked it would have avoided much needless discussion

Yeah I don't think that's accurate. People who defended Trey (not necessarily Trey stands, mind you) did so on the basis that he's inexperienced and may one day BECOME really good, and needed the reps to achieve that. That is quite different from the card carrying Jimmy Club members who were delusional about his CURRENT skill level. Trey fans, by contrast, merely argued that he has physical talent and MAY SOMEDAY BECOME great. That's not the same thing, as much as you wish it to be.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by Giedi:
I'm still a big Jimmy fan, but I think those panic throws come from the fact that he just doesn't have the wheels to get away from a pass rush. He isn't as mobile as Brock, for example. Having said that, if you compare his ability to understand Kyles offense - hands down, Brock is superior to Jimmy. As good as Jimmy is in processing, Brock is much better, and more accurate too. Also, just looking at Jimmy's arm versus Brock's arm - it just feels (to me) that Brock's arm is stronger. It just does, I dont know why.

Jimmy isn't good at processing actually. He doesn't see the field well when the first read isn't there. His first pick last night was clear evidence of that.

Have to be objective about guys strengths and weaknesses. Brock has weaknesses too but when you can process at an elite level that can mask a ton. Thats the big difference.

I'm just going to have to agree to disagree. While Jimmy was with us, he won us a ton of games. His so called WTF throws, and I acknowledge they are there, I think is influenced - not so much by a lack of processing power, but by his physical deficiencies. He knows he can't get away from a good rush. Those WTF throws usually happen when he is rushed. Brock is so much better than him in mobility and all other dimensions. But Jimmy's a good QB that can win you a lot of games too.

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Wait, so you believe a touchdown on second down, while in field goal range, when the score was 23 to 12 with six minutes minutes left is super clutch? The game was already a two score game and about to be extended with a field goal. If anything, that touchdown pass ought to matter less because the chances of the 49ers winning were already well above 90% at that point in the game.* As for the touchdown to Bell, the score was 3 to 3 in the middle of the second quarter. A great third down pass, but clutch? Come on. Clutch is when you're losing late in the fourth and convert a third and long.

*As you can see here, the 49ers chances of losing the game during that "clutch" moment were minuscule.
https://live.numberfire.com/nfl/8330

I mean really? Our win probability was already 98.79% and you think that's a clutch moment?

Like I said, homeritus is a dangerous thing. I am not knocking Purdy. He played well. He made some mistakes early, sure, but they didn't cost the team, and after he settled in he played like a Franchise QB. Negate the early portion and he played Super Bowl winning quarterbacking.

Total QBR takes into account situation, but also opponent's strength. The Jets have one of the best defenses in football. The Giants not so much. That's probably a big reason for the difference in and of itself.

As has been said before. Total QBR is not perfect. But it's still better than passer rating, which doesn't differentiate between player contributions to a given play.

II think that's the weirdest post I've read in a long time. I guess it comes down to the difference between "clutch" and "super clutch"

Watching a 49er quarterback throw us past the red zone for seven points is like water to a thirsty man in the desert for tour shanny offense. Yeah it's pretty clutch to turn a game that still has possibility to have some kind of crazy ending into a laugher with four or five minutes left? Yeah that's what Champions do. They shut the door they don't leave it open like we've had a tendency to do for the last few years. I think you've watched this team enough to know that it was a pretty impressive play. As far as it being either "clutch" or "super clutch" honestly I don't care you should focus more on consistency how many times has Brock done this in the last 10 games. Quite a few. That's the big picture. Not quibbling over some dumb Advanced stat that's complete opinion anyway. Sheesh. Talk about an agenda.

I am still trying to figure out how ALMOST INT's weigh heavy in that QBR stat but ALMOST TD's don't weigh anything.

I don't know for sure if almost INTs even do. I just know if I were grading QB performance, they would (assuming I had access to that data), because it's something the QB does (EDIT: In lieu of that data, for my own statistical analyses I tend to just use on target passing). As would great throws which are dropped, including almost TDs. But if I understand Total QBR, it's based almost entirely on EPA, weighted by various factors like situation and location on the field.

Honestly, my only strife is that if Brock doesn't throw those 2 TD passes against the giants, its essentially a 4 point game in the 4th quarter. While on the flip side, Dak against the same defense won 40-0 without throwing a TD pass, averaging only 6.0 ypa and completing only 54% of his passes. Dak may not have put the ball in harms way but he had no where near the impact Brock had in winning their respective games against the same defense imo. So why did Dak grade higher? It just doesn't make any sense to me if that stat is meant to determine how much of a factor the QB had in winning or losing a game. Who do you personally think had more of an impact on their team winning against the giants?

I think that's one of the problems with breaking everything down to a single play basis. It's why I'm not super high on EPA. Don't get me wrong, I'd still take Total QBR over passer rating in an instant. But to me I feel like there are simpler ways to gauge approximate QB value which don't require that level of sophistication, and the issues that come with that (such as overvaluing a situation because at the given moment it statistically is very important, but in hindsight at the end of the game it turns out that it's not as important as history might suggest). I think there's a simpler, better way: just do a statistical analysis of which stats correlate the most with winning, and weight them all by things like air yards to make sure the QB isn't getting too much credit, and combine them into a simple formula. IMHO that would be better. Perhaps not always as accurate, but the general trend will lead to it rating QBs approximately where they need to be with respect to one another.

I can completely understand why you would take QBR over PR. PR does not account for anything that the QB is asked to do outside the pocket. Which are not QB skills that should be overlooked because they bring real value to an offense.

You and I both emphasize stats like QB 1st down % and 3rd down passing conversion rate because they do correlate strongly with winning. Because if you aren't converting on 3rd down and moving the chains, its very hard for an offense to be productive. A team that cannot move the ball and doesn't score many points will find it very difficult to win games.

I also like BTT% and TWP% I would use them over air yards. There are HOF's/soon to be HOF's who made a career off the short/precision game. BTT% tells me how often a QB is elevating the play of the offense. While TWP% tells me how often the QB is putting the ball in harms way. I also have collected enough data to suggest that there is a strong correlation between how well a QB performs when facing pressure and the general concesus of who is elite in this league.

I have been collecting data and searching for trends for about a year now. I was thinking about creating my own QB formula. I'm just not sure on how to weigh each statistic at this point. I want to weigh heavy on efficiency stats on dropbacks where the QB is facing pressure. For reasons noted above. But I don't think I should completely disregard the value of how efficient a QB is with a clean pocket either.

Originally posted by Giedi:
I'm just going to have to agree to disagree. While Jimmy was with us, he won us a ton of games. His so called WTF throws, and I acknowledge they are there, I think is influenced - not so much by a lack of processing power, but by his physical deficiencies. He knows he can't get away from a good rush. Those WTF throws usually happen when he is rushed. Brock is so much better than him in mobility and all other dimensions. But Jimmy's a good QB that can win you a lot of games too.

Not when hes on a 34 interception pace he won't.

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by Giedi:
I'm still a big Jimmy fan, but I think those panic throws come from the fact that he just doesn't have the wheels to get away from a pass rush. He isn't as mobile as Brock, for example. Having said that, if you compare his ability to understand Kyles offense - hands down, Brock is superior to Jimmy. As good as Jimmy is in processing, Brock is much better, and more accurate too. Also, just looking at Jimmy's arm versus Brock's arm - it just feels (to me) that Brock's arm is stronger. It just does, I dont know why.

Jimmy isn't good at processing actually. He doesn't see the field well when the first read isn't there. His first pick last night was clear evidence of that.

Have to be objective about guys strengths and weaknesses. Brock has weaknesses too but when you can process at an elite level that can mask a ton. Thats the big difference.

I'm just going to have to agree to disagree. While Jimmy was with us, he won us a ton of games. His so called WTF throws, and I acknowledge they are there, I think is influenced - not so much by a lack of processing power, but by his physical deficiencies. He knows he can't get away from a good rush. Those WTF throws usually happen when he is rushed. Brock is so much better than him in mobility and all other dimensions. But Jimmy's a good QB that can win you a lot of games too.

processing power can make up for being a slow runner.

happy feet is a sign of panic, he's panicking because he doesn't know what to do when his first read is covered

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by Strwy2Hevn:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by RickyRoma:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Absolutely agree, *so far, so good.* The only thing I would say with operating with lesser offensive talent, is that the OLine (specially on the right side) needs to be upgraded. You can operate with lesser offensive talent, in my opinion, if you have elite Offensive Line talent. Give Brock 3+ seconds and he can definitely create some passing offensive fireworks. Having said that, in the playoffs and possibly in the Super Bowl, those offensive talent deficiencies will show up, by a better team.

An example of that would be the 49ers vs Chargers, the Chargers were exposed in the super bowl by a more complete team. In other words, I'd like ShanaLynch to keep the offensive firepower up, and not let it diminish - if they want to get to the championship game year in and year out. (easier said that than done for sure, though).

I'm assuming you meant Dolphins, because that Charger team was one of the weakest teams to ever reach a SB.

If Purdy *is* a guy who can be that top 5 type of dude, then he's a player who can elevate those around him. He's going to get the ball out, so OL doesn't have to block a guy for 4+ seconds. He's going to feel the pressure, and maneuver within the pocket and hit the open guy - like he did with that throw to Kittle against the Giants that has been posted. He's going read and recognize pre and post snap, and poor receivers are going to look average, average receivers are going to look good, and good receivers are going to look great.

He's also gonna get paid....and that means other positions will have to be sacrificed. If Shanahan, with his scheme? And assuming he has a guy with *it* in Purdy? There are many ways to skin a cat, but I'd be all for the team to just to load up on defense, and make do with lesser offensive skill guys.

We have three years to worry about that.

3? Thought it was 2 years?

Including this year? I was under the impression we can't negotiate until after the third year, meaning his fourth year is what he's making that fourth year, and whatever contract is signed will be added to that. Am I wrong on that?

Your right including this year. I was not

Originally posted by Rsrkshn:

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by Giedi:
I'm still a big Jimmy fan, but I think those panic throws come from the fact that he just doesn't have the wheels to get away from a pass rush. He isn't as mobile as Brock, for example. Having said that, if you compare his ability to understand Kyles offense - hands down, Brock is superior to Jimmy. As good as Jimmy is in processing, Brock is much better, and more accurate too. Also, just looking at Jimmy's arm versus Brock's arm - it just feels (to me) that Brock's arm is stronger. It just does, I dont know why.

Jimmy isn't good at processing actually. He doesn't see the field well when the first read isn't there. His first pick last night was clear evidence of that.

Have to be objective about guys strengths and weaknesses. Brock has weaknesses too but when you can process at an elite level that can mask a ton. Thats the big difference.

Curious to hear what people see as his weaknesses. For discussion.
So far I see some limitations, but zero weaknesses.
He seems above average in everything. Even arguably arm strength. Certainly not elite there; he doesn't have a bazooka, but having a cannon can also be problematic if you can't control it. As I've noticed, Purdy throws a very catchable ball. This helps even when he's off target; receivers can bring it in. Something that's not possible if you're throwing bullets.
Of course, if he has to fling it 60 yards down field on target like Rodgers, that has yet to be demonstrated. I agree that his arm strength looks superior to Garappolo.
His elusiveness in/from the pocket is way above average, it looks to me.
Lacks the elite twitch and straight line speed of, say, Jackson. But even there, better than average.
Don't see any weakness. Unless being only a little above average is a weakness.

Everybody harp's on Brock's lack of arm strength and Height. But Brees did fine. Brock's taller than Brees, and his arm - if you consider 54 MPH (before Brock's elbow operation) as a true measure of his arm strength - that is about what a typical NFL average QB has. So his arm strength is - at worst - is average, and not a weakness. Maybe his straight line speed isn't great (4.84/40) but it is a good Tight End speed. It's not terribly slow. Jimmy has a 4.97/40 score, before his ACL injury. Personally I don't see any real weaknesses that a typical average defense can exploit. Specially if he operates safely in Kyle's offense.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by Giedi:
I'm just going to have to agree to disagree. While Jimmy was with us, he won us a ton of games. His so called WTF throws, and I acknowledge they are there, I think is influenced - not so much by a lack of processing power, but by his physical deficiencies. He knows he can't get away from a good rush. Those WTF throws usually happen when he is rushed. Brock is so much better than him in mobility and all other dimensions. But Jimmy's a good QB that can win you a lot of games too.

Not when hes on a 34 interception pace he won't.

I didn't realize how poor jimmy is at going through his reads until I've seen him these three games with the raiders. Makes me realize how simple kyle made the offense for him here and why he rarely had off schedule plays until CMC arrival. He still has stud WR & RB and is struggling. Solid o line too.