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Originally posted by Furlow:
After 3 weeks, here is where Purdy ranks among NFL QB's:
Passer rating (106.3) - 4th
QBR (78.8) - 2nd
Yards/game (245.3) - 10th
Yards/attempt (8.1) - 2nd
Completion % (67.0) - 12th
TD % (4.4) - 10th
INT % (0.0) - 1st
Originally posted by Furlow:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by Furlow:
After 3 weeks, here is where Purdy ranks among NFL QB's:
Passer rating (106.3) - 4th
QBR (78.8) - 2nd
Yards/game (245.3) - 10th
Yards/attempt (8.1) - 2nd
Completion % (67.0) - 12th
TD % (4.4) - 10th
INT % (0.0) - 1st
Not too shabby for pick 262 without even 10 starts.
i really forget how little he's actually played because he looks like a vet when he plays.
It would be amazing if he had been the #1 overall pick. I'm moving past his draft slot and value though, because that is blatantly obvious. He is simply a great quarterback, and a perfect fit for Kyle's offense. Stay humble, be obsessed with greatness, and stay healthy - and we have our franchise QB for the next decade+.
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
Thank you Purdy for maintaining our SB aspirations, and most of all, saving us from the Lance train wreck that was incoming. Things could be completely different right now, if not for Purdy. Kyle and Lynch could be on the hot seat for wasting 3 first rounders on a bust. A veteran Sb caliber team could be going to waste. Possibly imploding a team.
thank you, Purdy!
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
Thank you Purdy for maintaining our SB aspirations, and most of all, saving us from the Lance train wreck that was incoming. Things could be completely different right now, if not for Purdy. Kyle and Lynch could be on the hot seat for wasting 3 first rounders on a bust. A veteran Sb caliber team could be going to waste. Possibly imploding a team.
thank you, Purdy!
If it wasn't for Brock, we would be in a completely different situation. Either our team would be worse cause we would have to make a big trade for a guy like cousins. Or we would be looking at darnold starting. Lol I don't think Lance would of kept starting, and if he did, I think it would of been short lived cause kyle was obviously not sold on him. He was awful when he played, awful in practice, and awful in camp.
we would have a completely different team and most likely not be considered to seriously win the Super Bowl.
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
Thank you Purdy for maintaining our SB aspirations, and most of all, saving us from the Lance train wreck that was incoming. Things could be completely different right now, if not for Purdy. Kyle and Lynch could be on the hot seat for wasting 3 first rounders on a bust. A veteran Sb caliber team could be going to waste. Possibly imploding a team.
thank you, Purdy!
If it wasn't for Brock, we would be in a completely different situation. Either our team would be worse cause we would have to make a big trade for a guy like cousins. Or we would be looking at darnold starting. Lol I don't think Lance would of kept starting, and if he did, I think it would of been short lived cause kyle was obviously not sold on him. He was awful when he played, awful in practice, and awful in camp.
we would have a completely different team and most likely not be considered to seriously win the Super Bowl.
Agree, man. It would've been ugly right now. Kyle and Johns reputation would've been tarnished after all the hard work they put in turning the franchise around. And Im sure Kyle and John know this the most. Im sure team is also super thankful after practicing with Lance the past couple of years. Things would've been really ugly right now.
We might not win the SB with Purdy this year, but it's great to at least have a legit crack at it, than none at all.
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
Thank you Purdy for maintaining our SB aspirations, and most of all, saving us from the Lance train wreck that was incoming. Things could be completely different right now, if not for Purdy. Kyle and Lynch could be on the hot seat for wasting 3 first rounders on a bust. A veteran Sb caliber team could be going to waste. Possibly imploding a team.
thank you, Purdy!
If it wasn't for Brock, we would be in a completely different situation. Either our team would be worse cause we would have to make a big trade for a guy like cousins. Or we would be looking at darnold starting. Lol I don't think Lance would of kept starting, and if he did, I think it would of been short lived cause kyle was obviously not sold on him. He was awful when he played, awful in practice, and awful in camp.
we would have a completely different team and most likely not be considered to seriously win the Super Bowl.
Agree, man. It would've been ugly right now. Kyle and Johns reputation would've been tarnished after all the hard work they put in turning the franchise around. And Im sure Kyle and John know this the most. Im sure team is also super thankful after practicing with Lance the past couple of years. Things would've been really ugly right now.
We might not win the SB with Purdy this year, but it's great to at least have a legit crack at it, than none at all.
I really think we will win it all this year if we can stay healthy. I feel really good about that. I think it'll be us vs the bills, with us winning obviously. It's going to be an epic year. I'm really enjoying this year. :D
Originally posted by Waterbear:
Originally posted by Furlow:
After 3 weeks, here is where Purdy ranks among NFL QB's:
Passer rating (106.3) - 4th
QBR (78.8) - 2nd
Yards/game (245.3) - 10th
Yards/attempt (8.1) - 2nd
Completion % (67.0) - 12th
TD % (4.4) - 10th
INT % (0.0) - 1st
I finally feel confident we have a QB that can get the job done.
I liked what I saw from Kaepernick in the playoffs, but I never felt confident that Alex or Jimmy could win it all. But I have even more confidence in Purdy, due to the style he plays with and how he's executing. Very exciting times as a 49ers fan.
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
Thank you Purdy for maintaining our SB aspirations, and most of all, saving us from the Lance train wreck that was incoming. Things could be completely different right now, if not for Purdy. Kyle and Lynch could be on the hot seat for wasting 3 first rounders on a bust. A veteran Sb caliber team could be going to waste. Possibly imploding a team.
thank you, Purdy!
If it wasn't for Brock, we would be in a completely different situation. Either our team would be worse cause we would have to make a big trade for a guy like cousins. Or we would be looking at darnold starting. Lol I don't think Lance would of kept starting, and if he did, I think it would of been short lived cause kyle was obviously not sold on him. He was awful when he played, awful in practice, and awful in camp.
we would have a completely different team and most likely not be considered to seriously win the Super Bowl.
Agree, man. It would've been ugly right now. Kyle and Johns reputation would've been tarnished after all the hard work they put in turning the franchise around. And Im sure Kyle and John know this the most. Im sure team is also super thankful after practicing with Lance the past couple of years. Things would've been really ugly right now.
We might not win the SB with Purdy this year, but it's great to at least have a legit crack at it, than none at all.
I really think we will win it all this year if we can stay healthy. I feel really good about that. I think it'll be us vs the bills, with us winning obviously. It's going to be an epic year. I'm really enjoying this year. :D
Originally posted by 49ersRing:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
Originally posted by tankle104:
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
Thank you Purdy for maintaining our SB aspirations, and most of all, saving us from the Lance train wreck that was incoming. Things could be completely different right now, if not for Purdy. Kyle and Lynch could be on the hot seat for wasting 3 first rounders on a bust. A veteran Sb caliber team could be going to waste. Possibly imploding a team.
thank you, Purdy!
If it wasn't for Brock, we would be in a completely different situation. Either our team would be worse cause we would have to make a big trade for a guy like cousins. Or we would be looking at darnold starting. Lol I don't think Lance would of kept starting, and if he did, I think it would of been short lived cause kyle was obviously not sold on him. He was awful when he played, awful in practice, and awful in camp.
we would have a completely different team and most likely not be considered to seriously win the Super Bowl.
Agree, man. It would've been ugly right now. Kyle and Johns reputation would've been tarnished after all the hard work they put in turning the franchise around. And Im sure Kyle and John know this the most. Im sure team is also super thankful after practicing with Lance the past couple of years. Things would've been really ugly right now.
We might not win the SB with Purdy this year, but it's great to at least have a legit crack at it, than none at all.
I really think we will win it all this year if we can stay healthy. I feel really good about that. I think it'll be us vs the bills, with us winning obviously. It's going to be an epic year. I'm really enjoying this year. :D
Yep, as long as we do something we've never come close to doing under Kyle, we'll win it all. I'm feeling optimistic.
Originally posted by Bay2Bay9erAllday:
I have a good feeling about this team, as well. But, we should know more than any other fan base, that sometimes it comes down to luck (injuries, refs, lucky bounces, etc.) Either way, I'm going to enjoy the ride until the wheels fall off. Just like the last few years. And hope that its finally our year.
I'm just glad that we have something to be excited for (Purdy), instead of dark times it would've been with the alternative (Lance)
Originally posted by Furlow:
After 3 weeks, here is where Purdy ranks among NFL QB's:
Passer rating (106.3) - 4th
QBR (78.8) - 2nd
Yards/game (245.3) - 10th
Yards/attempt (8.1) - 2nd
Completion % (67.0) - 12th
TD % (4.4) - 10th
INT % (0.0) - 1st
Originally posted by YACBros85:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by YACBros85:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by YACBros85:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by YACBros85:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Originally posted by YACBros85:
Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
Wait, so you believe a touchdown on second down, while in field goal range, when the score was 23 to 12 with six minutes minutes left is super clutch? The game was already a two score game and about to be extended with a field goal. If anything, that touchdown pass ought to matter less because the chances of the 49ers winning were already well above 90% at that point in the game.* As for the touchdown to Bell, the score was 3 to 3 in the middle of the second quarter. A great third down pass, but clutch? Come on. Clutch is when you're losing late in the fourth and convert a third and long.
*As you can see here, the 49ers chances of losing the game during that "clutch" moment were minuscule.
https://live.numberfire.com/nfl/8330
I mean really? Our win probability was already 98.79% and you think that's a clutch moment?
Like I said, homeritus is a dangerous thing. I am not knocking Purdy. He played well. He made some mistakes early, sure, but they didn't cost the team, and after he settled in he played like a Franchise QB. Negate the early portion and he played Super Bowl winning quarterbacking.
Total QBR takes into account situation, but also opponent's strength. The Jets have one of the best defenses in football. The Giants not so much. That's probably a big reason for the difference in and of itself.
As has been said before. Total QBR is not perfect. But it's still better than passer rating, which doesn't differentiate between player contributions to a given play.
II think that's the weirdest post I've read in a long time. I guess it comes down to the difference between "clutch" and "super clutch"
Watching a 49er quarterback throw us past the red zone for seven points is like water to a thirsty man in the desert for tour shanny offense. Yeah it's pretty clutch to turn a game that still has possibility to have some kind of crazy ending into a laugher with four or five minutes left? Yeah that's what Champions do. They shut the door they don't leave it open like we've had a tendency to do for the last few years. I think you've watched this team enough to know that it was a pretty impressive play. As far as it being either "clutch" or "super clutch" honestly I don't care you should focus more on consistency how many times has Brock done this in the last 10 games. Quite a few. That's the big picture. Not quibbling over some dumb Advanced stat that's complete opinion anyway. Sheesh. Talk about an agenda.
I am still trying to figure out how ALMOST INT's weigh heavy in that QBR stat but ALMOST TD's don't weigh anything.
I don't know for sure if almost INTs even do. I just know if I were grading QB performance, they would (assuming I had access to that data), because it's something the QB does (EDIT: In lieu of that data, for my own statistical analyses I tend to just use on target passing). As would great throws which are dropped, including almost TDs. But if I understand Total QBR, it's based almost entirely on EPA, weighted by various factors like situation and location on the field.
Honestly, my only strife is that if Brock doesn't throw those 2 TD passes against the giants, its essentially a 4 point game in the 4th quarter. While on the flip side, Dak against the same defense won 40-0 without throwing a TD pass, averaging only 6.0 ypa and completing only 54% of his passes. Dak may not have put the ball in harms way but he had no where near the impact Brock had in winning their respective games against the same defense imo. So why did Dak grade higher? It just doesn't make any sense to me if that stat is meant to determine how much of a factor the QB had in winning or losing a game. Who do you personally think had more of an impact on their team winning against the giants?
I think that's one of the problems with breaking everything down to a single play basis. It's why I'm not super high on EPA. Don't get me wrong, I'd still take Total QBR over passer rating in an instant. But to me I feel like there are simpler ways to gauge approximate QB value which don't require that level of sophistication, and the issues that come with that (such as overvaluing a situation because at the given moment it statistically is very important, but in hindsight at the end of the game it turns out that it's not as important as history might suggest). I think there's a simpler, better way: just do a statistical analysis of which stats correlate the most with winning, and weight them all by things like air yards to make sure the QB isn't getting too much credit, and combine them into a simple formula. IMHO that would be better. Perhaps not always as accurate, but the general trend will lead to it rating QBs approximately where they need to be with respect to one another.
I can completely understand why you would take QBR over PR. PR does not account for anything that the QB is asked to do outside the pocket. Which are not QB skills that should be overlooked because they bring real value to an offense.
You and I both emphasize stats like QB 1st down % and 3rd down passing conversion rate because they do correlate strongly with winning. Because if you aren't converting on 3rd down and moving the chains, its very hard for an offense to be productive. A team that cannot move the ball and doesn't score many points will find it very difficult to win games.
I also like BTT% and TWP% I would use them over air yards. There are HOF's/soon to be HOF's who made a career off the short/precision game. BTT% tells me how often a QB is elevating the play of the offense. While TWP% tells me how often the QB is putting the ball in harms way. I also have collected enough data to suggest that there is a strong correlation between how well a QB performs when facing pressure and the general concesus of who is elite in this league.
I have been collecting data and searching for trends for about a year now. I was thinking about creating my own QB formula. I'm just not sure on how to weigh each statistic at this point. I want to weigh heavy on efficiency stats on dropbacks where the QB is facing pressure. For reasons noted above. But I don't think I should completely disregard the value of how efficient a QB is with a clean pocket either.
My problem with BTT as it pertains to a QB metric is that, based on its stated definition, it is extremely subjective, and the entire point of a metric is to minimize subjectivity. And also, sometimes a guy is making a death defying throw because he made a bad read and was forced to (Jimmy G did this from time to time; and one of Brock's TDs against the Raiders last year only occurred because he missed the read and then had to improvise. Not sure if they count that sort of thing as BTT, but regardless there will be some level of subjectivity there).
You may see it as subjective but I see it as another way of isolating QB play from receiver play. When refering to BTT, PFF focuses heavily on distance, difficulty of throw as well as ball placement. Something no other stat site I have seen has ever attempted to do. I feel like too much objectivity takes away from the nuances of the game. So I feel like some subjectivity is needed in order to balance things out. Take INT's for example. A QB is credited with an INT whether he threw it into the chest of the defender or threw it into the chest of the receiver. The ball could have been on target but it was the receiver who actually caused the TO. Either way its a blemish on those objective QB stats and doesn't neccessarily reflect the performance of the QB.
It's not just the subjectivity, it's also that the definition I've read of it is nebulous. I mean, "generally further down the field"? Further down the field from what? And "generally?" So does that mean sometimes but not always? Usually fifteen yards down the field, except where it was a really awesome five yard pass? Why bother with a metric if you're going to be so ambiguous? At this point you might as well just go by the eye test.
I doubt you watch and track every stat of every game every week. So you are already giving up that control anyway. You trust that all these stats sites are 100% correct in their data collecting all the time. So I'm not sure what the push back is. And if all the QB's are being judged the same way than what is the issue?
