QB Brock Purdy Thread

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by RonnieLott:
No I think Purdy needs to be given time next year with all the pieces working, but we don't need to pay him $60 million this year.

Why not - in a year, $60M will be a bargain.

Bargain? If it is they'll be charging $500 for game tickets in the end zone. Seriously ths can't continue. I was listening to the red zone on Sunday and everytime some guy would make a catch or carry the ball they would tell us hiw he just earned $500,000 or $1 mil bonus . Geno Smith earned $4.5 mil in bonuses fir achieving very modest goals. Do they really need to keep telling us that these guys make a lot of money?

It's called inflation, it goes up everywhere and in every business.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Final 2024 Adjusted EPA

What happens if we take EPA per play and adjust for factors outside QB control? (fumble luck, interception luck, yards after the catch, etc)

-- Strengths: penalizes the YAC merchants, adjust for pass pro
-- Weakness: hard to adjust for WR/scheme help pic.twitter.com/Wyy2nH8hvx

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) January 8, 2025

Whoops!!!! Uh oh. Let's hear what people have to say………. I like how it adjusts for pass protection, Something, Purdy did not have all year

like I said last year and this year he is a top 7 quarterback in this league and will continue to be one in my opinion. I put Stroud in the same category even though he had a down year

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by RonnieLott:
No I think Purdy needs to be given time next year with all the pieces working, but we don't need to pay him $60 million this year.

Why not - in a year, $60M will be a bargain.

Bargain? If it is they'll be charging $500 for game tickets in the end zone. Seriously ths can't continue. I was listening to the red zone on Sunday and everytime some guy would make a catch or carry the ball they would tell us hiw he just earned $500,000 or $1 mil bonus . Geno Smith earned $4.5 mil in bonuses fir achieving very modest goals. Do they really need to keep telling us that these guys make a lot of money?

It's called inflation, it goes up everywhere and in every business.

Not like that. In 6 years the top NFL QB salary has gone from $27 mil to $60 mil per season. That's more than double. There is no real reason other than agent and player greed along with ownership ego. QBs haven't gotten better. Fans have seen their ticket prices rise too. Same for food prices at the games. Access cost for games has risen as the NFL keeps sellng rights to streaming services requiring a subscrition. Owners aren't going to lose money. One way or another the fans pay.

Originally posted by FootballExpert49ers:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

He was awesome in 2023.
He was pretty useless for most of this year after the holdout, like Trent.
Brock played OK for missing all those pieces and the s**t o-line.

The problem is Brock's struggles had nothing to do with that.

People on both sides keep looking at this with some kind of on paper logical reasoning, rather than what actually happened on the field.

2023 Brock has this team in the postseason, because he completes nearly all of the easy throws he underthrew, threw behind, and sailed over receivers' heads this season.

This year's Brock would've been 8-9 or so last year.

I don't believe for one second that Brock's numbers were affected by missing 3 of the 4 most important non-qb offensive players.

Brock led the league in multiple deep passing stats in 2023 and had the highest AYA.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Originally posted by mayo49:

Originally posted by RonnieLott:

No I think Purdy needs to be given time next year with all the pieces working, but we don't need to pay him $60 million this year.

Why not - in a year, $60M will be a bargain.

Bargain? If it is they'll be charging $500 for game tickets in the end zone. Seriously ths can't continue. I was listening to the red zone on Sunday and everytime some guy would make a catch or carry the ball they would tell us hiw he just earned $500,000 or $1 mil bonus . Geno Smith earned $4.5 mil in bonuses fir achieving very modest goals. Do they really need to keep telling us that these guys make a lot of money?

It's called inflation, it goes up everywhere and in every business.

Not like that. In 6 years the top NFL QB salary has gone from $27 mil to $60 mil per season. That's more than double. There is no real reason other than agent and player greed along with ownership ego. QBs haven't gotten better. Fans have seen their ticket prices rise too. Same for food prices at the games. Access cost for games has risen as the NFL keeps sellng rights to streaming services requiring a subscrition. Owners aren't going to lose money. One way or another the fans pay.

That's inflation. The market changed.

Originally posted by elguapo:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Final 2024 Adjusted EPA

What happens if we take EPA per play and adjust for factors outside QB control? (fumble luck, interception luck, yards after the catch, etc)

-- Strengths: penalizes the YAC merchants, adjust for pass pro
-- Weakness: hard to adjust for WR/scheme help pic.twitter.com/Wyy2nH8hvx

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) January 8, 2025

Whoops!!!! Uh oh. Let's hear what people have to say………. I like how it adjusts for pass protection, Something, Purdy did not have all year

like I said last year and this year he is a top 7 quarterback in this league and will continue to be one in my opinion. I put Stroud in the same category even though he had a down year

Just want to check, Kevin Cole whose numbers are being used there worked for PFF. Uses their data, so we can in fact use PFF, yes?

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Just want to check, Kevin Cole whose numbers are being used there worked for PFF. Uses their data, so we can in fact use PFF, yes?

advanced stats are so bad. just watch the football games. no idea who is seeing value in this. maybe ppl who want an opinion without watching the football. but in nfl you kinda have to watch the football to understand what is going on. this is just a bunch of made up crap. imo

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
advanced stats are so bad. just watch the football games. no idea who is seeing value in this. maybe ppl who want an opinion without watching the football. but in nfl you kinda have to watch the football to understand what is going on. this is just a bunch of made up crap. imo

I agree with PFF being garbage, but your method led to you thinking Marcus Mariota and Daniel Jones have more tools for this offense than Brock.

Your eye test amounts to nothing more than evaluating perceived arm strength, which puts nearly every QB in football ahead of Brock, and would have put nearly every QB in football ahead of Joe Montana and Steve Young when they played.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
advanced stats are so bad. just watch the football games. no idea who is seeing value in this. maybe ppl who want an opinion without watching the football. but in nfl you kinda have to watch the football to understand what is going on. this is just a bunch of made up crap. imo

Quantitative data has its place in football discussions. It helps paint a picture and every single football program uses them.

it shouldn't be the final say in everything. For sure watch for yourself. Using people that might be smarter at understanding the game to help your debate/possibly learn something is cool too imo.

folks tossing out EPA without understanding what that metric means, who got those numbers and how it's created is silly imo. I'm sure some know but I'll bet money not everyone does…and if you use it, use ALL the metrics. Picking and choosing data for a narrative, just makes your debate less believable imo.

We can all agree the OL wasn't good this year. They've NEVER been a good true pass set blocking team. Period. It was always built in the scheme and the idea that they never had to do a ton of true pass set blocking. The QB and receivers play a part in pass blocking as well. Brock was top 5 in TT. That's on him not processing quickly enough and I'm sure the receivers not doing their part as well. That leads to pressures/sacks/INTs.

I think part of the problem with Kyle and those 4th QR close games is you have to at some point have those 3/5/7 step drop backs. Can't rely just on PA and fooling the defense pre-snap. That requires better blocking up front.

He needs better route combs to get guys open. Our QB has to show up late in games and make plays like all the great ones do. We aren't seeing a ton of that unfortunately.

Originally posted by elguapo:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Final 2024 Adjusted EPA

What happens if we take EPA per play and adjust for factors outside QB control? (fumble luck, interception luck, yards after the catch, etc)

-- Strengths: penalizes the YAC merchants, adjust for pass pro
-- Weakness: hard to adjust for WR/scheme help pic.twitter.com/Wyy2nH8hvx

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) January 8, 2025

Whoops!!!! Uh oh. Let's hear what people have to say………. I like how it adjusts for pass protection, Something, Purdy did not have all year

like I said last year and this year he is a top 7 quarterback in this league and will continue to be one in my opinion. I put Stroud in the same category even though he had a down year

That's an awful lot of spinning just to get Purdy in the top 5. You can do this with any QB. I'm sure there's a schematic out there somewhere where Daniel Jones is top 5 QB in the league if you account for xyz. Brock was middle of the pack QB this year. Some good games. Some bad games. A lot of avg games with horrendous mistakes. Let's not try to spin it otherwise…

Originally posted by DrEll:

Originally posted by elguapo:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Final 2024 Adjusted EPA

What happens if we take EPA per play and adjust for factors outside QB control? (fumble luck, interception luck, yards after the catch, etc)

-- Strengths: penalizes the YAC merchants, adjust for pass pro
-- Weakness: hard to adjust for WR/scheme help pic.twitter.com/Wyy2nH8hvx

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) January 8, 2025

Whoops!!!! Uh oh. Let's hear what people have to say………. I like how it adjusts for pass protection, Something, Purdy did not have all year

like I said last year and this year he is a top 7 quarterback in this league and will continue to be one in my opinion. I put Stroud in the same category even though he had a down year

That's an awful lot of spinning just to get Purdy in the top 5. You can do this with any QB. I'm sure there's a schematic out there somewhere where Daniel Jones is top 5 QB in the league if you account for xyz. Brock was middle of the pack QB this year. Some good games. Some bad games. A lot of avg games with horrendous mistakes. Let's not try to spin it otherwise…

Didn't they just do that with EVERY QB!!! or is it just Brock Purdy's name you see up there, it's not like he's number 1.

Originally posted by FootballExpert49ers:
I agree with PFF being garbage, but your method led to you thinking Marcus Mariota and Daniel Jones have more tools for this offense than Brock.

Your eye test amounts to nothing more than evaluating perceived arm strength, which puts nearly every QB in football ahead of Brock, and would have put nearly every QB in football ahead of Joe Montana and Steve Young when they played.

Eye test is subjective as well (your example proves that). I think folks who really understand X's and O's with the all-22 in front of them are super helpful. I wish I had time to learn more and watch all of it.

PFF imo isn't trash, the league uses it for a reason. Data isn't suppose to be subjective, but any human element makes it that to a point.

I think sometimes we can't find the off switch as fans when talking about all this. Take the fandom out and don't get so emotional about it.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Eye test is subjective as well (your example proves that). I think folks who really understand X's and O's with the all-22 in front of them are super helpful. I wish I had time to learn more and watch all of it.

PFF imo isn't trash, the league uses it for a reason. Data isn't suppose to be subjective, but any human element makes it that to a point.

I think sometimes we can't find the off switch as fans when talking about all this. Take the fandom out and don't get so emotional about it.

All facts

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Just want to check, Kevin Cole whose numbers are being used there worked for PFF. Uses their data, so we can in fact use PFF, yes?

advanced stats are so bad. just watch the football games. no idea who is seeing value in this. maybe ppl who want an opinion without watching the football. but in nfl you kinda have to watch the football to understand what is going on. this is just a bunch of made up crap. imo

Just because you can't understand them doesn't mean they are bad. There's also a reason why every NFL team, and other sports league now all use advanced analytics. Math might be hard for you, but not everyone has a hard time understanding.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Eye test is subjective as well (your example proves that). I think folks who really understand X's and O's with the all-22 in front of them are super helpful. I wish I had time to learn and watch all of it.

PFF imo isn't trash, the league uses it for a reason. Data isn't suppose to be subjective, but any human element makes it that to a point.

I think sometimes can't find the off switch as fans when talking about all this. Take the fandom out and don't get so emotional about it.

The problem with PFF, and things such as QBR, is they mislead fans into thinking they're providing context when they actually aren't. No stats provide context in football.

QBR makes fans think it's weighting the "strength" of an opposing defense. It's not. It's weighting the ranking of a defense. It doesn't take injuries into account. A highly ranked defense could have key players out.

It doesn't take the weather conditions into account.

More importantly, it doesn't take actual PLAY into account. A good defense can play badly and a bad defense can play well.

You're better off going with surface level stats to see if a player/unit/team is effective than trying to get context from additional numbers.