QB Brock Purdy Thread

Originally posted by genus49:
Gonna post this here cuz I thought it came up on my feed and I know we had some discussions on whether Purdy would've been a fit with Ben Johnson/Chicago and found this funny

This is extremely important as Ben Johnson takes over as #Bears head coach: passing game EPA now matters more than turnover margin 🔊 pic.twitter.com/dmAtQZLTy2

— Adam Hoge (@AdamHoge) April 1, 2025

Great 49ers gift ideas ⇨
Just a reminder for some where Purdy's regression season puts him in EPA

Final 2024 Adjusted EPA

What happens if we take EPA per play and adjust for factors outside QB control? (fumble luck, interception luck, yards after the catch, etc)

-- Strengths: penalizes the YAC merchants, adjust for pass pro
-- Weakness: hard to adjust for WR/scheme help pic.twitter.com/Wyy2nH8hvx

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) January 8, 2025

Nice post. I concur!!!!! People aren't going to want to see that much less agree with it

Originally posted by genus49:
Once again I feel like us discussing AAV/APY whatver you want to call it but the average number talk in general isn't worthwhile.

This is why the Hurts' deal keeps being brought up. It had the "highest deal in NFL history" headline at the time of it being made...the details however revealed a super team friendly deal where the cap hits never even hit the average salary announced. And obviously the Eagles managed to win a SB with him on that contract so it can be done.

I realize random's big contention was technically Jalen won it before he officially became a $50 million per year QB but that point is overblown since we all know once these guys sign these deals that's how people refer to them but either way if the 49ers wanted to mimic the structure of Jalen's deal you could still have the "Brock signs highest deal in NFL history" without the contract cutting us off at our knees.

That's the main thing and why we shouldn't be as concerned about the average numbers. Sure it would be absolutely amazing if Brock would take a deal averaging in the 40s because the same things I said apply above but everything is lessened across the contract.

However when Jalen Hurts(another limited QB) gets an average of $51 million, then how can you honestly claim Brock should settle for less 2 whole years later? The salary cap has jumped BIG time in these last 2 years also. It's not realistic.

there's several factors here. first hurts is a talented player. he went round 2. when you see him out there you see the physical gifts. he looked like a young mcnabb to me. with his ability to move, throw on the move and run, etc. it's about what GMs value. brock was processing like a vet right away, but you don't see the same eye popping physical gifts, outside of maybe his short area quickness, which is pretty darn elite.

the major factor is hurts signed april 2023. that was after his breakout. he put 300 passing 70 rushing and 4 touchdowns on a KC D in the super bowl. he was ranked 3rd in NFL top 100. he was runner up for MVP.

how you do in the contract year plays a large role in the deal. that's why bosa, deebo and BA could really ring the register. if any silver lining exists from 2024 it should be that brock should cost less now

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
this is from front page, and all makes sense to me
mike sando with nfl executive:

"People forget with Purdy, the guy has made nothing," the executive told The Athletic's Mike Sando. "If you are Brock Purdy, you are staring two years of franchise tags in the face and $5 million (in 2025 salary)."

In other words, San Francisco controls Purdy's contract situation for the next three seasons at an estimated total cost of $97 million—likely his "best-case scenario" without an extension.

Despite leading the 49ers to two NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl in his first two seasons, Purdy's critics point to the team's struggles when injuries piled up, arguing that he couldn't elevate the roster beyond six wins in that stretch.

That perceived limitation could work in the 49ers' favor at the negotiating table.

"I am not saying they would pound him, but I have never understood how people think he gets to $60 million (per year on an extension)," the executive added.

Once again this is fine and dandy to write out and it's technically accurate BUT you have to also look at it what it means for the 49ers if they go that route.

You have Brock play for $5 million in 2025 - the assumption is he plays well enough where they want him around further and they place the franchise tag on him for 2026
Brock plays for $46 million in 2026 - current estimate for that franchise TAG. That goes straight to your cap space. Can't adjust it. You need $46 of cap space just for Brock with no wiggle room.

In two seasons you've now paid Brock $50+ million against the cap too.

Now say Brock continues to play well enough(which obviously the team should hope for since it means good things for them), now what?

You tag him again? That will probably be close to $60 million if not more and now you have 0 leverage left cuz you're not tagging him at close to $90 million per season. So the alternative is to pay him after assumingly 3 good enough seasons that you're not done with the guy. Now what's the asking price 3 years later?

Basically all that stuff only really works if the 49ers are willing to bet AGAINST themselves which is very counterproductive. His price would only go down if he plays poorly enough that lots of people will lose their jobs.

And yes it gives you a chance to see if maybe he's not what they thought but it's still a poor attempt at leverage because Brock and his team understand the situation.

Originally posted by genus49:
Once again this is fine and dandy to write out and it's technically accurate BUT you have to also look at it what it means for the 49ers if they go that route.

You have Brock play for $5 million in 2025 - the assumption is he plays well enough where they want him around further and they place the franchise tag on him for 2026
Brock plays for $46 million in 2026 - current estimate for that franchise TAG. That goes straight to your cap space. Can't adjust it. You need $46 of cap space just for Brock with no wiggle room.

In two seasons you've now paid Brock $50+ million against the cap too.

Now say Brock continues to play well enough(which obviously the team should hope for since it means good things for them), now what?

You tag him again? That will probably be close to $60 million if not more and now you have 0 leverage left cuz you're not tagging him at close to $90 million per season. So the alternative is to pay him after assumingly 3 good enough seasons that you're not done with the guy. Now what's the asking price 3 years later?

Basically all that stuff only really works if the 49ers are willing to bet AGAINST themselves which is very counterproductive. His price would only go down if he plays poorly enough that lots of people will lose their jobs.

And yes it gives you a chance to see if maybe he's not what they thought but it's still a poor attempt at leverage because Brock and his team understand the situation.

i don't think there is much of any reality of brock missing games, or holding out long, or the club using the tag. it's all a pretty poorly played game of poker.

the player wants to be here, and the club wants the player. i see this done quick. brock wants to be out there for offseason. if you think brock wants to be out there for offseason, which i do, then you don't think he's gonna play hardball and demand the world. he just wants a nice, large, fat, rich deal, which he will get. the club seems willing to give it. the only way this drags is if the player says wants it to imo. i don't see that. this is all good news for 49er fans. it will be over soon and at a price we can live with.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by genus49:
Once again this is fine and dandy to write out and it's technically accurate BUT you have to also look at it what it means for the 49ers if they go that route.

You have Brock play for $5 million in 2025 - the assumption is he plays well enough where they want him around further and they place the franchise tag on him for 2026
Brock plays for $46 million in 2026 - current estimate for that franchise TAG. That goes straight to your cap space. Can't adjust it. You need $46 of cap space just for Brock with no wiggle room.

In two seasons you've now paid Brock $50+ million against the cap too.

Now say Brock continues to play well enough(which obviously the team should hope for since it means good things for them), now what?

You tag him again? That will probably be close to $60 million if not more and now you have 0 leverage left cuz you're not tagging him at close to $90 million per season. So the alternative is to pay him after assumingly 3 good enough seasons that you're not done with the guy. Now what's the asking price 3 years later?

Basically all that stuff only really works if the 49ers are willing to bet AGAINST themselves which is very counterproductive. His price would only go down if he plays poorly enough that lots of people will lose their jobs.

And yes it gives you a chance to see if maybe he's not what they thought but it's still a poor attempt at leverage because Brock and his team understand the situation.

i don't think there is much of any reality of brock missing games, or holding out long, or the club using the tag. it's all a pretty poorly played game of poker.

the player wants to be here, and the club wants the player. i see this done quick. brock wants to be out there for offseason. if you think brock wants to be out there for offseason, which i do, then you don't think he's gonna play hardball and demand the world. he just wants a nice, large, fat, rich deal, which he will get. the club seems willing to give it. the only way this drags is if the player says wants it to imo. i don't see that. this is all good news for 49er fans. it will be over soon and at a price we can live with.

Hopefully he can agree to a deal with AV 50-52 million per year with 160 or so guaranteed over 4 years. He's a team player but also a top 10 qb (I place him in the 8-10 range) so he deserves it.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
there's several factors here. first hurts is a talented player. he went round 2. when you see him out there you see the physical gifts. he looked like a young mcnabb to me. with his ability to move, throw on the move and run, etc. it's about what GMs value. brock was processing like a vet right away, but you don't see the same eye popping physical gifts, outside of maybe his short area quickness, which is pretty darn elite.

the major factor is hurts signed april 2023. that was after his breakout. he put 300 passing 70 rushing and 4 touchdowns on a KC D in the super bowl. he was ranked 3rd in NFL top 100. he was runner up for MVP.

how you do in the contract year plays a large role in the deal. that's why bosa, deebo and BA could really ring the register. if any silver lining exists from 2024 it should be that brock should cost less now

Despite the recent surge of physical freak QBs the bread and butter of the sport and QB play is still the things that Brock does well. You get way too caught up in Jalen's physical tools that you ignore his deficiencies as a passer - especially in what would be critical in our offense.

You love to bring up Purdy without his weapons. Go check on how well Hurts plays when he's missing AJ Brown or when his OL is missing key guys like Lane Johnson. He's like Kap in a lot of ways. Very talented but post snap if his first read isn't open and he's contained in the pocket it's not pretty.

As for what Hurts did in that SB doesn't mean much especially when you consider his OL and the fact that both pass rush units were stalled cuz of the field and the Chiefs secondary was filled with young guys.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
i don't think there is much of any reality of brock missing games, or holding out long, or the club using the tag. it's all a pretty poorly played game of poker.

the player wants to be here, and the club wants the player. i see this done quick. brock wants to be out there for offseason. if you think brock wants to be out there for offseason, which i do, then you don't think he's gonna play hardball and demand the world. he just wants a nice, large, fat, rich deal, which he will get. the club seems willing to give it. the only way this drags is if the player says wants it to imo. i don't see that. this is all good news for 49er fans. it will be over soon and at a price we can live with.

I agree I think the deal is done before the May workouts if not in the next few weeks.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
i don't think there is much of any reality of brock missing games, or holding out long, or the club using the tag. it's all a pretty poorly played game of poker.

the player wants to be here, and the club wants the player. i see this done quick. brock wants to be out there for offseason. if you think brock wants to be out there for offseason, which i do, then you don't think he's gonna play hardball and demand the world. he just wants a nice, large, fat, rich deal, which he will get. the club seems willing to give it. the only way this drags is if the player says wants it to imo. i don't see that. this is all good news for 49er fans. it will be over soon and at a price we can live with.

...but will YOU be able to live with it?

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
i don't think there is much of any reality of brock missing games, or holding out long, or the club using the tag. it's all a pretty poorly played game of poker.

the player wants to be here, and the club wants the player. i see this done quick. brock wants to be out there for offseason. if you think brock wants to be out there for offseason, which i do, then you don't think he's gonna play hardball and demand the world. he just wants a nice, large, fat, rich deal, which he will get. the club seems willing to give it. the only way this drags is if the player says wants it to imo. i don't see that. this is all good news for 49er fans. it will be over soon and at a price we can live with.

...but will YOU be able to live with it?

ppl can get emotional on QB, for me it's just talking ball and how much i like this persons game. 2024 i didn't like brock's game. i felt he was trying to do too much, he was holding the ball, he wasn't as accurate, his passes lacked zip. i think his story of mr irrelevant to QB1 and his game against TB12 it's one of the best stories of my time watching the 49ers. this is my 4th decade now watching 49ers.

the guy had his throw arm blow up in the biggest game of his life, he had to wait a month for swelling to go down, get his arm which is his money maker worked on and he didn't miss a game. he was out there for training camp and the season went to mid february. he was in the mvp convo. he didn't get really a day off from his rook season to the KC super bowl. it was injury, to rehab, to training camp, to season and playoffs and so forth. one of my favorite aspects of nfl is guys overcoming adversity such as trying to make roster, overcome injury, he's done all that. now as a club, you still have to be level headed and do what is best for the team. this is a capped sport, so we can't just pay him banana bucks, there is opportunity cost up and down the roster. i'm proud of what he's accomplished, at the same time i don't know if he's gonna be the long term guy. he'll have to keep improving. if we see the 2024 season on repeat, he won't be here long and neither will shanny. that's just the nature of the nfl, not for long..

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
ppl can get emotional on QB, for me it's just talking ball and how much i like this persons game. 2024 i didn't like brock's game. i felt he was trying to do too much, he was holding the ball, he wasn't as accurate, his passes lacked zip. i think his story of mr irrelevant to QB1 and his game against TB12 it's one of the best stories of my time watching the 49ers. this is my 4th decade now watching 49ers.

the guy had his throw arm blow up in the biggest game of his life, he had to wait a month for swelling to go down, get his arm which is his money maker worked on and he didn't miss a game. he was out there for training camp and the season went to mid february. he was in the mvp convo. he didn't get really a day off from his rook season to the KC super bowl. it was injury, to rehab, to training camp, to season and playoffs and so forth. one of my favorite aspects of nfl is guys overcoming adversity such as trying to make roster, overcome injury, he's done all that. now as a club, you still have to be level headed and do what is best for the team. this is a capped sport, so we can't just pay him banana bucks, there is opportunity cost up and down the roster. i'm proud of what he's accomplished, at the same time i don't know if he's gonna be the long term guy. he'll have to keep improving. if we see the 2024 season on repeat, he won't be here long and neither will shanny. that's just the nature of the nfl, not for long..

You say this but you fail to acknowledge what else was going on around Brock/49ers that could've led to what you didn't like.

You had no problem showing why Brock played well in 2023, hinting that it was because of the talent around him.

So question is...when is it Brock who is doing the lifting? Seems like your non emotional take is that Brock does well because of the talent around him but plays poorly all on his own?

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
ppl can get emotional on QB, for me it's just talking ball and how much i like this persons game. 2024 i didn't like brock's game. i felt he was trying to do too much, he was holding the ball, he wasn't as accurate, his passes lacked zip. i think his story of mr irrelevant to QB1 and his game against TB12 it's one of the best stories of my time watching the 49ers. this is my 4th decade now watching 49ers.

the guy had his throw arm blow up in the biggest game of his life, he had to wait a month for swelling to go down, get his arm which is his money maker worked on and he didn't miss a game. he was out there for training camp and the season went to mid february. he was in the mvp convo. he didn't get really a day off from his rook season to the KC super bowl. it was injury, to rehab, to training camp, to season and playoffs and so forth. one of my favorite aspects of nfl is guys overcoming adversity such as trying to make roster, overcome injury, he's done all that. now as a club, you still have to be level headed and do what is best for the team. this is a capped sport, so we can't just pay him banana bucks, there is opportunity cost up and down the roster. i'm proud of what he's accomplished, at the same time i don't know if he's gonna be the long term guy. he'll have to keep improving. if we see the 2024 season on repeat, he won't be here long and neither will shanny. that's just the nature of the nfl, not for long..

You say this but you fail to acknowledge what else was going on around Brock/49ers that could've led to what you didn't like.

You had no problem showing why Brock played well in 2023, hinting that it was because of the talent around him.

So question is...when is it Brock who is doing the lifting? Seems like your non emotional take is that Brock does well because of the talent around him but plays poorly all on his own?

i had a good post, why is it always a nitpick? i've mentioned plenty brock does well all on his lonesome. i've said he's an elite processor and he's elite with short area quickness also, to give 2 examples. that's something he has, and has nothing to do with what is around him. let's try to find some stuff we can agree on.

we all saw him play like a 10 year vet from the jump which i mentioned. we all saw him buy 10 seconds or so then throw a dot to BA (dropped) in the playoff game vs seattle. i think anyone being honest would say his passes in 2024 were not crisp. i saw maybe dozens of ppl in here and in gameday threads bringing it up, all last season. lack of velo, has nothing to do with missing guys around him. bit of a red flag tbh, to have a guy not looking crisp on his throws, and we are sending in the brinks truck. he's just not a guy with a good fastball so to speak. and i've never been an arm talent guy, but 2024 i had to say ok i was perhaps wrong on that. i got into debates with NY defending brock, ok i am able to admit i was wrong. the brock arm talent simply isn't good by nfl standards. that's why you see a lot of over the middle inbreaking stuff imo, and defenses camp that area of the field, and take the ball off us.

so i see some limitations on what we can do as an offense. namely we aren't stressing the D with designed QB run, which about half the league is doing, and we aren't doing outside the numbers or downfield with a lot of velo. it all has to be done with pretty crazy anticipation and ball in the air for longer duration. so you get a heat map of what can we do well, it's mostly run the ball and throw over the middle, which is kinda like a jimmy criticism if we are honest. i recall that being the criticism of that era. and hey, i like jimmy, you can win with him, we did, but it was defense and run game doing a lot of the lifting. you just ask the QB to put it on guys and not make mistakes. fair enough, but if that's what we ask of QB, why break the bank for one?

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
i don't think there is much of any reality of brock missing games, or holding out long, or the club using the tag. it's all a pretty poorly played game of poker.

the player wants to be here, and the club wants the player. i see this done quick. brock wants to be out there for offseason. if you think brock wants to be out there for offseason, which i do, then you don't think he's gonna play hardball and demand the world. he just wants a nice, large, fat, rich deal, which he will get. the club seems willing to give it. the only way this drags is if the player says wants it to imo. i don't see that. this is all good news for 49er fans. it will be over soon and at a price we can live with.

I agree I think the deal is done before the May workouts if not in the next few weeks.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
i had a good post, why is it always a nitpick? i've mentioned plenty brock does well all on his lonesome. i've said he's an elite processor and he's elite with short area quickness also, to give 2 examples. that's something he has, and has nothing to do with what is around him. let's try to find some stuff we can agree on.

we all saw him play like a 10 year vet from the jump which i mentioned. we all saw him buy 10 seconds or so then throw a dot to BA (dropped) in the playoff game vs seattle. i think anyone being honest would say his passes in 2024 were not crisp. i saw maybe dozens of ppl in here and in gameday threads bringing it up, all last season. lack of velo, has nothing to do with missing guys around him. bit of a red flag tbh, to have a guy not looking crisp on his throws, and we are sending in the brinks truck. he's just not a guy with a good fastball so to speak. and i've never been an arm talent guy, but 2024 i had to say ok i was perhaps wrong on that. i got into debates with NY defending brock, ok i am able to admit i was wrong. the brock arm talent simply isn't good by nfl standards. that's why you see a lot of over the middle inbreaking stuff imo, and defenses camp that area of the field, and take the ball off us.

so i see some limitations on what we can do as an offense. namely we aren't stressing the D with designed QB run, which about half the league is doing, and we aren't doing outside the numbers or downfield with a lot of velo. it all has to be done with pretty crazy anticipation and ball in the air for longer duration. so you get a heat map of what can we do well, it's mostly run the ball and throw over the middle, which is kinda like a jimmy criticism if we are honest. i recall that being the criticism of that era. and hey, i like jimmy, you can win with him, we did, but it was defense and run game doing a lot of the lifting. you just ask the QB to put it on guys and not make mistakes. fair enough, but if that's what we ask of QB, why break the bank for one?

Boom agreement lol.

As far as the nitpicking just reminding you to keep the same energy lol. It's not just you but a lot of people forget that the bulk of what makes plays successful in the NFL isn't the running or bazooka throws across the body on the move. It's the stuff that Brock does well.

We had a combination of bad on the team last year and as any QB regardless of talent level the play dips as a result. When you have inconsistency in your skill players and your OL isn't dominant to make up for it you feel it. When your defense and special teams are making critical mistakes or unable to just stop the bleeding at times, you feel it.

You look at Brock's season and see regression. I see a guy who had a ton thrown on his plate from the trash bin and he didn't completely melt like I've seen other QBs do.

The reason I posted his EPA ranking is because you have a HC that was the cream of the crop and many anti Shanahan folks wanted us to hire basically say EPA is the new best metric to identify a way to win games. The better EPA in a game leads to a win 80% of the time. Brock was top 5 in EPA last season with all the craziness going on.

That to ME says he's a guy we can build around. That's not simply plays well only if he's surrounded by studs. I don't expect everyone to agree with my train of thought but to me this last season gave me more confidence in Brock, not less.

some QB contract news, for whatever it is worth, from ESPN:

The Las Vegas Raiders and their new quarterback Geno Smith have agreed to two-year, $75 million extension, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter.
The contract has incentives that could push the total to $85.5 million and includes $66.5 million in guaranteed money, the source said.

Originally posted by genus49:
Gonna post this here cuz I thought it came up on my feed and I know we had some discussions on whether Purdy would've been a fit with Ben Johnson/Chicago and found this funny

This is extremely important as Ben Johnson takes over as #Bears head coach: passing game EPA now matters more than turnover margin 🔊 pic.twitter.com/dmAtQZLTy2

— Adam Hoge (@AdamHoge) April 1, 2025

Just a reminder for some where Purdy's regression season puts him in EPA

Final 2024 Adjusted EPA

What happens if we take EPA per play and adjust for factors outside QB control? (fumble luck, interception luck, yards after the catch, etc)

-- Strengths: penalizes the YAC merchants, adjust for pass pro
-- Weakness: hard to adjust for WR/scheme help pic.twitter.com/Wyy2nH8hvx

— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) January 8, 2025

Baldwin mentions that his "adjusted EPA" takes inspiration from Kevin Cole. That inspiration comes from Cole's "Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency". Here is Cole's final 2024 AQE, which has its own adjusted weights for Drops, Fumbles, YAC, Sacks caused/prevented, DPI, SOS, and weather. The dot is the unadjusted EPA and their face is their AQE.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
some QB contract news, for whatever it is worth, from ESPN:

The Las Vegas Raiders and their new quarterback Geno Smith have agreed to two-year, $75 million extension, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter.
The contract has incentives that could push the total to $85.5 million and includes $66.5 million in guaranteed money, the source said.

So Darnold and Geno got more or less the same.