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QB Brock Purdy Thread

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QB Brock Purdy Thread

  • dj43
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Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
i don't think there is much of any reality of brock missing games, or holding out long, or the club using the tag. it's all a pretty poorly played game of poker.

the player wants to be here, and the club wants the player. i see this done quick. brock wants to be out there for offseason. if you think brock wants to be out there for offseason, which i do, then you don't think he's gonna play hardball and demand the world. he just wants a nice, large, fat, rich deal, which he will get. the club seems willing to give it. the only way this drags is if the player says wants it to imo. i don't see that. this is all good news for 49er fans. it will be over soon and at a price we can live with.

...but will YOU be able to live with it?

ppl can get emotional on QB, for me it's just talking ball and how much i like this persons game. 2024 i didn't like brock's game. i felt he was trying to do too much, he was holding the ball, he wasn't as accurate, his passes lacked zip. i think his story of mr irrelevant to QB1 and his game against TB12 it's one of the best stories of my time watching the 49ers. this is my 4th decade now watching 49ers.

the guy had his throw arm blow up in the biggest game of his life, he had to wait a month for swelling to go down, get his arm which is his money maker worked on and he didn't miss a game. he was out there for training camp and the season went to mid february. he was in the mvp convo. he didn't get really a day off from his rook season to the KC super bowl. it was injury, to rehab, to training camp, to season and playoffs and so forth. one of my favorite aspects of nfl is guys overcoming adversity such as trying to make roster, overcome injury, he's done all that. now as a club, you still have to be level headed and do what is best for the team. this is a capped sport, so we can't just pay him banana bucks, there is opportunity cost up and down the roster. i'm proud of what he's accomplished, at the same time i don't know if he's gonna be the long term guy. he'll have to keep improving. if we see the 2024 season on repeat, he won't be here long and neither will shanny. that's just the nature of the nfl, not for long..

OK, let's talk ball. (BTW, your posts would be much easier to read if you used capitalization. )

Shanahan's passing offense is all based on timing and positioning. Receivers have to run precise routes and be in the correct place at the correct time. In 2023, Aiyuk was fantastic in that role and he and Brock were nearly unstoppable. They had whatever they wanted whenever they wanted it. CMC was equally reliable. Kittle found those places in zones that made the short game work.

In 2024, without Aiyuk in TC and full-on chemistry in place, the passing game never got started...and then it ended with the injury. No CMC so LBs could drop into zones that took away the routes that a healthy BA would have had to his own. Also, defenses began pulling safeties down and into the middle to take away all the stuff that had worked so well in 2023. Deebo, never a good route runner, provided no relief. Defenses keyed on him for screens and swing plays that worked so well when Aiyuk was keeping things together over the middle. JJ had a bit of a break-out year but he and Brock did not begin to develop chemistry until the second half.

All of that paints a clear picture of a lack of reliable targets for the QB. In a zone-based offense, if the QB cannot depend on his receivers being where they should be at the correct time, it is going to reflect on the performance of the QB. As much as we talk about the quarterback "lifting up his teammates", that is all nonsense when the teammates are not in a place where the QB can lift them up. Shanahan's scheme only works if the receivers are where they need to be on a reliable basis.

"Next man up" is another wonderful platitude but that too is nonsense when the next man up is not capable of doing what the man that just went down was doing. In 2024, that rarely happened with the frequency of 2023, and the result was "regression."

It would make the thread more productive if you would acknowledge some of these intricate and related parts of the game when you discuss Purdy.

FWIW, I stand by my prediction of two months ago that Purdy's contract will fall very close to Jordan Love's deal, which was signed two year ago. The salary cap has increased $56 million since then. Hence, a contract like Love's now would represent a "discount" in current dollars - a point worth considering.
[ Edited by dj43 on Apr 3, 2025 at 1:13 PM ]
Originally posted by Typecast:
Baldwin mentions that his "adjusted EPA" takes inspiration from Kevin Cole. That inspiration comes from Cole's "Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency". Here is Cole's final 2024 AQE, which has its own adjusted weights for Drops, Fumbles, YAC, Sacks caused/prevented, DPI, SOS, and weather. The dot is the unadjusted EPA and their face is their AQE.

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And for those that are curious, here is 2022 and 2023


[ Edited by Typecast on Apr 3, 2025 at 1:20 PM ]
this just in from David Bonilla- another no name former nfl exec better described as a glorified intern claims Brock Purdy is less effective when half the team is on IR. STFU already. Story is beyond played out. Stop posting garbage and calling it news.
  • dj43
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Originally posted by Bringbackedjr:
this just in from David Bonilla- another no name former nfl exec better described as a glorified intern claims Brock Purdy is less effective when half the team is on IR. STFU already. Story is beyond played out. Stop posting garbage and calling it news.

this ^
Originally posted by Bringbackedjr:
this just in from David Bonilla- another no name former nfl exec better described as a glorified intern claims Brock Purdy is less effective when half the team is on IR. STFU already. Story is beyond played out. Stop posting garbage and calling it news.

It is pretty stupid. Can say that for any QB at any level lol
Originally posted by 49ers808:
Originally posted by Bringbackedjr:
this just in from David Bonilla- another no name former nfl exec better described as a glorified intern claims Brock Purdy is less effective when half the team is on IR. STFU already. Story is beyond played out. Stop posting garbage and calling it news.

It is pretty stupid. Can say that for any QB at any level lol

yes, some things go without saying.
Originally posted by genus49:
Gonna post this here cuz I thought it came up on my feed and I know we had some discussions on whether Purdy would've been a fit with Ben Johnson/Chicago and found this funny


Just a reminder for some where Purdy's regression season puts him in EPA


So on a down year, on what matters to Ben Johnson, Purdy is 4th, and Caleb Williams is 31st. That incompatible with the argument that Williams is the reason Johnson took the Chicago job.
Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
some QB contract news, for whatever it is worth, from ESPN:

The Las Vegas Raiders and their new quarterback Geno Smith have agreed to two-year, $75 million extension, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter.
The contract has incentives that could push the total to $85.5 million and includes $66.5 million in guaranteed money, the source said.

So Darnold and Geno got more or less the same.

Darnold's contract has 100.5M of total cash to be paid out over 3 years (33.5M total contract AAV). There is 5M in yearly incentives, maxxing Darnold out at 38.5M AAV. His 2025 compensation is fully guaranteed at signing (37.5M). 17.5M of his 27.5M 2026 compensation is guaranteed against injury at signing, vesting into a full guarantee 5 days after this years Super Bowl. That brings the "total guarantees" in the contract to 55M.

Geno had 31M and 1 year remaining on his old deal (edit - 16M of which was a roster bonus that became guaranteed, maybe already paid, on 3/16/2025). This extension adds 2 years and 75M in new cash bringing his total contract to 106M over 3 years (35.3M total AAV). The extension adds 3.5M in yearly incentives, maxxing Geno out at 116.5M (38.8M max AAV). The "total guarantees" in the contract is 66.5M, but we have no idea how much is guaranteed at signing at this point.
[ Edited by Typecast on Apr 5, 2025 at 2:25 AM ]
  • dj43
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Watching the Purdy interview on YouTube, he talked about how he spent a lot of time with Pearsall, working on timing and patterns once Ricky was able to practice. I jazzed about the prospect of those two working together this coming season.
  • dj43
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Originally posted by BOI49er:
Originally posted by genus49:
Gonna post this here cuz I thought it came up on my feed and I know we had some discussions on whether Purdy would've been a fit with Ben Johnson/Chicago and found this funny


Just a reminder for some where Purdy's regression season puts him in EPA


So on a down year, on what matters to Ben Johnson, Purdy is 4th, and Caleb Williams is 31st. That incompatible with the argument that Williams is the reason Johnson took the Chicago job.

The investment in Williams is a big part of why Johnson was hired. Goff certainly benefited from Johnson's expertise.

Quarterbacks do not operate in a vacuum. duh...
Originally posted by BOI49er:
So on a down year, on what matters to Ben Johnson, Purdy is 4th, and Caleb Williams is 31st. That incompatible with the argument that Williams is the reason Johnson took the Chicago job.

I think you are stripping a lot of context here. Here is the transcript

Q: Can you talk about how success in the modern NFL is quarterback driven and that that's the driving force of success? What are the most important metrics to you to identify quarterback success?
A: So, the way I understand it right now is, from our analytics team, the EPA in the passing game is really one of the most critical factors in determining wins and losses right now. That's probably changes over the last five years or so. I would have said five years ago... turnovers, takeaways, that was number one. From what I understand now that EPA from the passing has now surpassed that. So, whatever team has the higher passing game EPA at the end of the game, they generally win that game. It's over 80% of the time. So, it's a huge stat and that's where we look at how do we help inflate that number. Higher completion percentage. More run after catch opportunities. That's not to say we're not going to take our shots down the field and look for big explosive plays, chunks, or touchdowns that way, but there's a lot of ways we can get that done.

He did attribute this evaluation to what is being explained to him by analytics teams. He's talking specifically about passing EPA, not adjusted EPA. Not even standard EPA (which includes QB rushing). Allen has a 0.311 EPA/play composed from a 0.216 Passing EPA/play and 0.095 Rushing EPA/play. Jackson has a 0.284 EPA/play from a 0.268 Passing EPA/play and 0.017 Rushing EPA/play. While Allen was a more efficient football player, Lamar was the more efficient passer.

We can all agree that Caleb wasn't successful last year under Eberflus and Brown. Johnson believes he can put Caleb in a position to be a more efficient passer.
[ Edited by Typecast on Apr 3, 2025 at 3:20 PM ]
Originally posted by dj43:
Watching the Purdy interview on YouTube, he talked about how he spent a lot of time with Pearsall, working on timing and patterns once Ricky was able to practice. I jazzed about the prospect of those two working together this coming season.

Which interview was it? Would love to check it out.
Originally posted by BOI49er:
So on a down year, on what matters to Ben Johnson, Purdy is 4th, and Caleb Williams is 31st. That incompatible with the argument that Williams is the reason Johnson took the Chicago job.

I imagine Ben believes he can fix Caleb. Maybe he can. We'll find out.
Originally posted by genus49:
Originally posted by BOI49er:
So on a down year, on what matters to Ben Johnson, Purdy is 4th, and Caleb Williams is 31st. That incompatible with the argument that Williams is the reason Johnson took the Chicago job.

I imagine Ben believes he can fix Caleb. Maybe he can. We'll find out.

NFL coaches are arrogant af. That is why you see QBs who arent very good getting chance after chance. Coaches believe they can fix anything.
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
some QB contract news, for whatever it is worth, from ESPN:

The Las Vegas Raiders and their new quarterback Geno Smith have agreed to two-year, $75 million extension, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter.
The contract has incentives that could push the total to $85.5 million and includes $66.5 million in guaranteed money, the source said.

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