QB Brock Purdy Thread

Originally posted by jays9ers:
If the team truly believed he was him... They'd pay him top 5 qb money.. They DO not 🤷🏾‍♂?

Really? I'm pretty sure if the Chiefs could pay Mahomes the vet minimum they would. Likewise for Buffalo, Baltimore and Cinci with their QBs.

I'd love Brock to do the same…it's not realistic and it's not how the NFL works.

Brock isn't a top 5 QB in the NFL and he doesn't have a perfect track record that you just give a market setting contract to and call it a day.

Anyone being realistic understands the team(just like it did for studs like Kittle, Warner, Bosa…and Aiyuk) come in low early on. I wouldn't expect it any different with Brock.

Nothing so far has shown these talks will get nasty and nothing so far indicating the deal may not happen. Until those stories come out your point is totally absurd.

If they sign him to a starting level contract it's because they 100% want him.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by 9NERNATE:
Grant brought up the idea of the Titans trading for Brock. If we trade Brock and #11, for #1 overall and #35, and something next year, would be very tempting. Could then possibly trade back a few spots and get more picks off that. I know it will never happen, but you never know.

Find it funny that Grant isn't a big fan of Purdy but would also hypothesize that he's effectively worth 2 1sts, a high 2nd, and an additional pick next year. Good lord how do people listen to that guy.

tbf, Grant Cohn does what a lot of Purdy's detractors have been doing. They think he's not worth a 50M but think they can get a king's ransom for him.

Originally posted by Typecast:
tbf, Grant Cohn does what a lot of Purdy's detractors have been doing. They think he's not worth a 50M but think they can get a king's ransom for him.

That's not something I've really seen here. I wouldn't doubt if there's an example here and there. People don't understand trade value just as much as they overrate players on their favorite team.

Most of the 'detractor' arguments have been centered around either a belief that he wouldn't get x amount of dollars on the open market and/or the team has him under control.

Regardless of what others may believe, I personally think anybody who believes we could trade him for an effective value of two 1st round picks and a high 2nd is* out to lunch.

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by jays9ers:
If the team truly believed he was him... They'd pay him top 5 qb money.. They DO not 🤷🏾‍♂?

Really? I'm pretty sure if the Chiefs could pay Mahomes the vet minimum they would. Likewise for Buffalo, Baltimore and Cinci with their QBs.

I'd love Brock to do the same…it's not realistic and it's not how the NFL works.

Brock isn't a top 5 QB in the NFL and he doesn't have a perfect track record that you just give a market setting contract to and call it a day.

Anyone being realistic understands the team(just like it did for studs like Kittle, Warner, Bosa…and Aiyuk) come in low early on. I wouldn't expect it any different with Brock.

Nothing so far has shown these talks will get nasty and nothing so far indicating the deal may not happen. Until those stories come out your point is totally absurd.

If they sign him to a starting level contract it's because they 100% want him.

Here's the dilemma. All of these guys, and many more, profited by waiting. This team has (stupidly, in my view) taught players to hold out, because the Niners will always give you a better contract when their back is against the wall. This is Brock's first opportunity to lock in generational wealth. That has to take priority first before he can be the nice guy and team player. His contract now is $5.3m, which is about a tenth of his market value, times four for a multi year contract. If I'm Brock, I'd put myself in bubble wrap, and do no more than present myself for a physical to prove my worth. If need be, I wouldn't play until the last 6 games to accrue the season.

That won't be necessary. Kyle knows he needs Brock in camp if he's to have a successful season. I think he knows another 6 win season will spell his end in San Francisco and a very black mark on his career. I don't know what power Kyle has on contracts these days, and I suspect it's diminished from the way things have been run. Regardless, Kyle's going to be screaming at somebody if Brock starts missing practices. If he's being lowballed, Brock would be a fool to not be willing to walk it up to that line, and beyond. Brock has the leverage. There's only two outcomes. Stop with the lowballing, or move on. And the way to move on is to trade him, and that will get us draft picks and Brock the new contract.

Originally posted by BOI49er:
Here's the dilemma. All of these guys, and many more, profited by waiting. This team has (stupidly, in my view) taught players to hold out, because the Niners will always give you a better contract when their back is against the wall. This is Brock's first opportunity to lock in generational wealth. That has to take priority first before he can be the nice guy and team player. His contract now is $5.3m, which is about a tenth of his market value, times four for a multi year contract. If I'm Brock, I'd put myself in bubble wrap, and do no more than present myself for a physical to prove my worth. If need be, I wouldn't play until the last 6 games to accrue the season.

That won't be necessary. Kyle knows he needs Brock in camp if he's to have a successful season. I think he knows another 6 win season will spell his end in San Francisco and a very black mark on his career. I don't know what power Kyle has on contracts these days, and I suspect it's diminished from the way things have been run. Regardless, Kyle's going to be screaming at somebody if Brock starts missing practices. If he's being lowballed, Brock would be a fool to not be willing to walk it up to that line, and beyond. Brock has the leverage. There's only two outcomes. Stop with the lowballing, or move on. And the way to move on is to trade him, and that will get us draft picks and Brock the new contract.

Doesn't this contradict the argument(s) you present in the first parts of your post?

Reporting around the team hints at changes in the power structure directly related to contracts.

Originally posted by CharlieSheen:

Originally posted by Typecast:

Originally posted by CharlieSheen:

Originally posted by random49er:
Okay. I disagree. Balance is necessary. Signing everyone to big contracts can even turn "good players" into average ones. You become attractive to guys maybe willing to retire but want one last good check,...like they gave with Brock, Aiyuk, et. al.

That kinda stuff is the opposite of a competitive advantage, IMO.

55 mil aav is not a big contract for a 25 year old franchise qb though. The next round of young QBs like Stroud and Daniels will make it look like nothing. Just like when we signed Jimmy to the highest contract, it quickly became a bargain. Mahomes was the highest paid on average when he signed and it's not even top 10 at this point. That's how qb contracts work. 55 mil isn't even 20% of this years cap. It's not a lot lol

55 aav mil is a "big contract" for a 25 year old franchise qb. 55M/yr (275M/5) would be T-3rd in extension AAV, 5th in total AAV. %cap, like extension AAV, is a terrible metric as the cap does not grow the same year-to-year. In 2021, the cap went down instead of up due to COVID.

Mahomes contract is a tricky contract. Yes, he signed a 450M/10 year extension in 2020. Yes, it dumpstered previous top contracts on averages. It was #1 in extension AAV until Rodgers (2022, 50.3M) and total AAV until Watson (2022, 46M). Mahomes and the Chiefs agreed that they would bring his money inline with the top QBs when COVID was over. In 2023, they did just that by adjusting the 417M/9 he had remaining. The Chiefs moved 45M in compensation from 2028-31 to pay out over 2023-26, ballooning his 2023 5-year cash flow from 216M to 261M (52.2M/yr). Compared to other total AAVs, that 52.2M/yr would be #3 (Allen 55M, Dak 53.8M, and Lamar 52M). In 2028, 156M and 4 years remain on his contract (39M/yr). Either the Chiefs will extend Mahomes or they will move more cash to juice Mahomes' 2028 cash before extending him in 2029. The Bills did the latter last season, moving up cash from 2025 to payout in 2024 before handing him a market-resetting contract in 2025.

Im talking in terms of percent the cap we'll be paying Brock at 55 mil aav. It's not enough to say we can't build a team. It's just an excuse that haters hide behind

It doesn't need to be market resetting or damaging to build a roster to be a "big contract", even in the context of %cap.

Here's the top 25 contracts by different criteria since 2011 (italicized = inactive).

• Ext AAV (Signing Year, %Cap)
  • Allen (25, 35.90%), Burrow (23, 24.47%), Rodgers (22, 24.15%), Allen (21, 23.56%), Prescott (24, 23.49%)
  • Herbert (23.35%), Wilson (22, 23.30%), Jackson (23, 23.13%), Mahomes (20, 22.70%), Hurts (23, 22.69%)
  • Murray (22, 22.14%), Prescott (21, 21.92%), Love (24, 21.53%), Lawrence (24, 21.53%), Tagovailoa (24, 20.79%)
  • Goff (24, 20.75%), Watson (20, 19.68%), Carr (22, 19.45%), Stafford (22, 19.21%), Rodgers (18, 18.91%)
  • Wilson (19, 18.60%), Schaub (12, 18.28%), Roethlisberger (19, 18.07%), Goff (19, 17.80%), Rodgers (13, 17.80%)
• Total AAV (Signing Year, %Cap)
  • Jackson (23, 23.13%), Watson (22, 22.09%), Prescott (21, 21.92%), Prescott (25, 21.06%), Mahomes (23, 20.61%)
  • Wilson (22, 20.31%), Mahomes (20, 20.08%), Burrow (23, 19.70%), Allen (25, 19.70%), Allen (21, 19.49%)
  • Hurts (23, 19.22%), Herbert (18.83%), Tagovailoa (24, 18.45%), Jones (23, 18.29%), Murray (22, 18.23%)
  • Love (24, 18.09%), Rodgers (22, 17.94%), Cousins (24, 17.62%), Stafford (22, 17.58%), Lawrence (24, 17.14%)
  • Carr (22, 16.96%), Cousins (22, 16.81%), Wilson (19, 16.68%), Carr (23, 16.68%), Rodgers (23, 16.68%)
• Total Cash (Contract Years, %Cap)
  • Jackson (23-27, 18.51%), Prescott (21-24, 18.37%), Watson (22-26, 18.04%), Prescott (24-28, 17.34%), Cousins (20-22, 16.30%)
  • Cousins (22-23, 16.17%), Prescott (20-20, 15.85%), Wilson (19-23, 15.67%), Jones (23-26, 15.42%), Allen (25-30, 15.32%)
  • Cousins (24-27, 15.26%), Tagovailoa (24-28, 15.19%), Roethlisberger (19-21, 14.94%), Rodgers (18-23, 14.93%), Wilson (22-28, 14.92%)
  • Cousins (18-20, 14.90%), Love (24-28, 14.89%), Rodgers (23-25, 14.81%), Brees (12-16, 14.80%), Rodgers (22-26, 14.65%)
  • Carr (22-25, 14.60%), Hurts (23-28, 14.60%), Tannehill (20-23, 14.50%), Garoppolo (18-22, 14.41%), Stafford (22-26, 14.36%)

When you say "we'll be paying Brock at 55 mil aav", that can be interpreted in different ways.

I'm interpreting that as a total contract that pays out 330M/6 (55M total AAV) and thus an extension of 324.6M/5 (64.9M extension AAV). So his %caps would be 23.2% (ext AAV %cap), 19.49% (total AAV %cap), and 15.32% (total cash %cap).

If you meant he's going to get a Burrow/Lawrence 275M/5 extension (55M extension AAV), his total contract would be 280.3M/6 (46.3M total AAV). So his %caps would be 19.70% (ext AAV %cap), 16.74% (total AAV %cap), and 12.85% (total cash %cap). That total cash %cap would be 46th among all QB contracts since 2011, 14th among all active QB contracts.

Using %cap really does highlight that he should be getting paid more than people are suggesting. Who would have thought Lombardi was onto something when he brought up 65M as the extension AAV upper bound based on %cap.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by Typecast:
tbf, Grant Cohn does what a lot of Purdy's detractors have been doing. They think he's not worth a 50M but think they can get a king's ransom for him.

That's not something I've really seen here. I wouldn't doubt if there's an example here and there. People don't understand trade value just as much as they overrate players on their favorite team.

Most of the 'detractor' arguments have been centered around either a belief that he wouldn't get x amount of dollars on the open market and/or the team has him under control.

Regardless of what others may believe, I personally think anybody who believes we could trade him for an effective value of two 1st round picks and a high 2nd is* out to lunch.

I didn't say here.

Originally posted by Typecast:
I didn't say here.

Fair enough. All sorts of crazy s**t out there.

Happened to pop up on my feed. Not nearly as bats**t as what was suggested earlier.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Trade Brock Purdy to the Titans for their second round pick and draft a quarterback @49ers.

— Grant Cohn (@grantcohn) April 19, 2025

Happened to pop up on my feed. Not nearly as bats**t as what was suggested earlier.

No way, now a swap for #1 and #11 and that 2nd would get my attention.

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by CharlieSheen:
As the cap continues to rise, 55 mil won't stop us from keeping the players we need. We paid players after Jimmys contract. The Lions and Eagles pay their elite players. If you don't think we can build a team paying a qb less than 20%, then you don't believe in Kyle

I believe Jimmy took up a chunk of the cap for 1 year....2018. Like a $37M hit or so (20.9% of the cap?). That'd equate to like a player hitting for $58M today. We weren't in the playoffs that year. Tom Brady was hauling in a good $15M less that year, and the Patriots won it all IIRC.

After that year, his cap hit was halved I believe. (In what would be the 10% range,...which is less than $30M today).

Went up to around 13-14% of the cap in 2020-2021.

Make of it what you wish,...but looking at all of those "record deal" years listed,...we went to the SB the year his cap hit had the lowest percentage (about 10.6%).

In 2023 when we went again, Brock accounted for 0.4% of the cap.

And if we extended Purdy on a record-setting deal, his cap hit would likely be closer to 15M/25M/35M/45M the first four years.

Jimmy G's contract was not a standard contract. We were flush with over 100M in cap space and the books clean. So Paraag opted to dump as much money as they could in the first year while being compliant with the CBA.

2. Cleaning up the Garoppolo deal. Here's what I found most interesting about the negotiation of 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo's five-year, $137.5 million deal—there was almost no acrimony. Talks began the day after San Francisco's season ended, and it took a little over a month to find the finish line.

"What was interesting was neither one of us even talked about the franchise tag, or using it as a floor, or as a ceiling," 49ers EVP of football operations Paraag Marathe told me. "We both knew it was there, and understood it was an option. But neither side used it as a chip. It was a positive negotiation, we knew the market, and we knew we were ahead of it. … We just wanted to keep the conversation free of that. We didn't want it to have negative framings. We wanted it to have positive framings."

Of course, it's not a coincidence that the average per year ($27.5 million) landed right around what the exclusive tag, which isn't calculated until April, will likely cost. But the team didn't threaten to hold him over for a year, and Garoppolo's camp didn't force the team to tag him, which made this one as easy as it could've been.

As for the deal itself, there were a couple things that I found interesting in the details. First, the Niners decided to use the cap room they have now to give themselves future flexibility. Garoppolo's cap number for 2018 is $37.0 million, which is $10 million more than any of the future figures—it's $20.0 million for '19, $26.6 million for '20, $26.9 million for '21, and $27.0 million for '22. Garoppolo got $35 million to sign, but $28 million of that was payable in a roster bonus due in March, which gets the quarterback his money up front and drops the whole figure on to the 2018 books, rather than spreading it out like a signing bonus would. (The remaining $7 million was paid to Garoppolo in the form of a signing bonus, which will be prorated). And Marathe said he'd have put even more into Year 1, if not for the little-known 50/50 rule, which compels teams to make the Year 2 cap figure at least 50 percent of the Year 1 figure.

Second, even though the Niners did drop 27 percent of the cap dollars into 2018, they still have a ton of financial freedom this offseason. Accounting for draft picks and IR contingency money, as well as Garoppolo's new money, the Niners still project to have around $63 million to spend in free agency. So they'll go into this offseason with a quarterback they believe in, and a ton of options for what's to come in March.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/02/15/indianapolis-colts-chris-ballard-frank-reich-coach-gm-mmqb

I believe we did the same front-loading on McKinnon's contract that year too.

Originally posted by 9NERNATE:
No way, now a swap for #1 and #11 and that 2nd would get my attention.

Well your first post was why I posted this. The trade you mentioned then, and now, is completely unrealistic. Trading Brock for a high second is realistic. I don't think they should do that though, for clarity.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Trade Brock Purdy to the Titans for their second round pick and draft a quarterback @49ers.

— Grant Cohn (@grantcohn) April 19, 2025

Happened to pop up on my feed. Not nearly as bats**t as what was suggested earlier.

This has been floating on clickbait sites for more than a month

https://twsn.net/2025/03/02/tennessee-titans-trade-1st-pick-san-francisco-49ers-brock-purdy/

That site has zero filter when it comes to poopposting.

Originally posted by Typecast:
This has been floating on clickbait sites for more than a month

https://twsn.net/2025/03/02/tennessee-titans-trade-1st-pick-san-francisco-49ers-brock-purdy/

The author has no filter of that original post has zero filter.

https://twsn.net/author/marissamyers/

I've seen that prediction as well over the same timeframe on social media. Like I said… it's bats**t.

Originally posted by 9NERNATE:

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Trade Brock Purdy to the Titans for their second round pick and draft a quarterback @49ers.

— Grant Cohn (@grantcohn) April 19, 2025

Happened to pop up on my feed. Not nearly as bats**t as what was suggested earlier.

No way, now a swap for #1 and #11 and that 2nd would get my attention.

Do the Titans even value Purdy of that pick? Regardless its never going to happen lol....