Will our offense be different with Lance?

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
3200 is a clown number.

That's 188 pass yds per game..

Sam Darnold is at 210.

JG was at 254 in this offense last year.. Heck Mullens in this offense was 240+

It is 17 games now too.

Whatchu got?

Mine:

515 passing attempts for 4,100 yards

Lance 2022 stats

16 starts
4592 pass yds
42 pass TDs
11 INTs
496 rush yds
5 rush TDs

I'm thinking 609 attempts..

Yards per game here would be 287 he'll get this with the volume.. more throws than last year.. you don't draft a QB #3 overall cuz you want him to handoff..

4600 passing yards and 42 passing TD's is an outrageous expectation for a first year starter. I could see something close to that in 2-3 years though. Also, just because you can, doesn't mean you have to.

Yessir. With big draft status and top shelf tools comes high expectations. Not saying I would be disappointed if he falls short on these.. far from it.. A lot depends on the usage. If KS goes with his patented 40 runs strat, throw these numbers out the window.. I figure if that was the plan there would be no need to get TL. KS and JL know this so that must not be the plan. I think we want to go with a more Buffalo or KC style approach. With the ability to get those tough run yards when we need to.

Expectation is the root of all suffering. Having unrealistic expectation can make the disappointment even worse.

If Trey started all last season than our expectations would be similar. Except I would predict 42 TD's total. I do expect him to finish around 4600 yards total this season. Imho, If he out plays every QB in his draft class that would be a reasonable expectation.

Originally posted by Sickaa:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Maiocco has:

Trey - 3,200 yards | 60% | 90 PRTG | 24 TD's | 12 INT's | 400 yards rushing | 7 TD's
Mitchell - 800 yards, 4 TD's
TDP - 500 yards, 6 TD's
3 Receivers close to 1K each (Aiyuk, Deebo & Kittle)

3200 yds

and 3 receivers with 1k seasons nonetheless..

So basically outside of a massive increase in rushing stats, Maiocco has Trey in his first year as a starter replicating a typical Jimmy G season.

Yeah, he should have played last year.

3200 yards would be underwhelming to say the least. I expect Kyle to unleash Lance.

That would only happen if either Lance got hurt, or the run game was so overwhelmingly dominant that there was rarely a need for much passing.

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by Sickaa:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Maiocco has:

Trey - 3,200 yards | 60% | 90 PRTG | 24 TD's | 12 INT's | 400 yards rushing | 7 TD's
Mitchell - 800 yards, 4 TD's
TDP - 500 yards, 6 TD's
3 Receivers close to 1K each (Aiyuk, Deebo & Kittle)

3200 yds

and 3 receivers with 1k seasons nonetheless..

So basically outside of a massive increase in rushing stats, Maiocco has Trey in his first year as a starter replicating a typical Jimmy G season.

Yeah, he should have played last year.

3200 yards would be underwhelming to say the least. I expect Kyle to unleash Lance.

That would only happen if either Lance got hurt, or the run game was so overwhelmingly dominant that there was rarely a need for much passing.

I'm down. If our run game becomes dominant again like back in 2019, forget about it. Our playaction would be f**king deadly.

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by Sickaa:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Maiocco has:

Trey - 3,200 yards | 60% | 90 PRTG | 24 TD's | 12 INT's | 400 yards rushing | 7 TD's
Mitchell - 800 yards, 4 TD's
TDP - 500 yards, 6 TD's
3 Receivers close to 1K each (Aiyuk, Deebo & Kittle)

3200 yds

and 3 receivers with 1k seasons nonetheless..

So basically outside of a massive increase in rushing stats, Maiocco has Trey in his first year as a starter replicating a typical Jimmy G season.

Yeah, he should have played last year.

3200 yards would be underwhelming to say the least. I expect Kyle to unleash Lance.

That would only happen if either Lance got hurt, or the run game was so overwhelmingly dominant that there was rarely a need for much passing.

I'm down. If our run game becomes dominant again like back in 2019, forget about it. Our playaction would be f**king deadly.

I mean, our running game averaged 1 foot per carry less last season than it did in 2019. Its been pretty consistent.

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:

Originally posted by Sickaa:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Maiocco has:

Trey - 3,200 yards | 60% | 90 PRTG | 24 TD's | 12 INT's | 400 yards rushing | 7 TD's
Mitchell - 800 yards, 4 TD's
TDP - 500 yards, 6 TD's
3 Receivers close to 1K each (Aiyuk, Deebo & Kittle)

3200 yds

and 3 receivers with 1k seasons nonetheless..

So basically outside of a massive increase in rushing stats, Maiocco has Trey in his first year as a starter replicating a typical Jimmy G season.

Yeah, he should have played last year.

3200 yards would be underwhelming to say the least. I expect Kyle to unleash Lance.

That would only happen if either Lance got hurt, or the run game was so overwhelmingly dominant that there was rarely a need for much passing.

I'm down. If our run game becomes dominant again like back in 2019, forget about it. Our playaction would be f**king deadly.

I mean, our running game averaged 1 foot per carry less last season than it did in 2019. Its been pretty consistent.

Well yeah. If we didn't put Deebo in at RB (6.2 ypc) those stats would look a lot different. Mitchell was solid last season at 4.7 ypc but in 2019 we had Breida and Mostert who both averaged over 5 ypc plus Deebo averaged 11.4 ypc. As a rushing offense we had 20× 20+ yard carries in 2019. In 2021 we had 13× 20+ yard carries. I see what you are saying production wise but I think we were more explosive in the run game in 2019.

A shift has occurred in the NFL landscape when it comes to defenses moving from being predominantly single high to two high safety shells. The era of the Seattle Cover3 has passed and now it's time for Cover2/4 to make a comeback. When the Seattle Cover3 was a thing, Kyle's outside zone scheme started to spread because it was a great counter to those single high coverages.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl-playoffs/2022/1/26/22902126/kyle-shanahan-sean-mcvay-five-years-evolution
2017-2018: The Golden Age of Wide Zone Offenses. At the core of their offenses is the wide zone running play. The value of this type of run was magnified when Mike Shanahan paired it with the West Coast passing game that lives on slants and crossers. These routes broke into the area vacated by the linebackers who were flowing too aggressively with the wide zone run. The play-action passing game behind this offense feels unstoppable.

This is when Kyle's scheme spread as mentioned earlier in this thread. Defenses had to adapt and so many schemes are pulling a safety back. Some defenses cheat to gain a defender in coverage by using 1.5 gap techniques. Now, we see more Quarters (Cover4) and Cover2 - split safety coverages.

Pattern matching has existed for long time 1980. With RPOs and spread formations becoming common, defenses need to adapt coverage wise which is why there could be more of an emphasis on match zone schemes. Vic Fangio was big on that when Harbaugh was here. Fangio has been contacted by the 49ers this offseason to serve as a consultant.

Back to the 49ers offense. If split coverages are going to continue to rise (specifically Quarters), this means safeties are going to be asked to match up against WRs in man coverage since many Quarters calls require a safety to match a WR, and often times it's the #2 WR (slot). Slot WRs often get a free release when a defense is in Quarters and even if the overhang defender collides with the #2, the safety that picks up the #2 will have to turn and run with the WR - I believe this is why Kyle wanted speed in the slot, something Juan Jennings does not provide. Ray Ray McCloud was signed as a free agent, but he's more quick than fast. When the 49ers got the chance to add speed they went for the speed demon with Danny Gray.

So on top of the running game differences that we can see coming with how the 49ers drafted bigger RBs to run between the tackles, speed in the slot is another change we could see coming - to combat the defensive changes in the league.

Below is one of the many ways to run Quarters. The important assignment here, as it pertains to a speedy slot WR, is how each safety has the assignment "Match 2-1". This means if #2 (slot WR) goes vertical, match him in man coverage. If Danny Gray has a free release, full speed at a safety that has to pick him up, big armed QB, possible big play.
Also notice how each safety has a run fit. This was mentioned earlier in the thread and is another reason to use more gap concepts and more between the tackles runs.

Originally posted by thl408:
A shift has occurred in the NFL landscape when it comes to defenses moving from being predominantly single high to two high safety shells. The era of the Seattle Cover3 has passed and now it's time for Cover2/4 to make a comeback. When the Seattle Cover3 was a thing, Kyle's outside zone scheme started to spread because it was a great counter to those single high coverages.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl-playoffs/2022/1/26/22902126/kyle-shanahan-sean-mcvay-five-years-evolution
2017-2018: The Golden Age of Wide Zone Offenses. At the core of their offenses is the wide zone running play. The value of this type of run was magnified when Mike Shanahan paired it with the West Coast passing game that lives on slants and crossers. These routes broke into the area vacated by the linebackers who were flowing too aggressively with the wide zone run. The play-action passing game behind this offense feels unstoppable.

This is when Kyle's scheme spread as mentioned earlier in this thread. Defenses had to adapt and so many schemes are pulling a safety back. Some defenses cheat to gain a defender in coverage by using 1.5 gap techniques. Now, we see more Quarters (Cover4) and Cover2 - split safety coverages.

Pattern matching has existed for long time 1980. With RPOs and spread formations becoming common, defenses need to adapt coverage wise which is why there could be more of an emphasis on match zone schemes. Vic Fangio was big on that when Harbaugh was here. Fangio has been contacted by the 49ers this offseason to serve as a consultant.

Back to the 49ers offense. If split coverages are going to continue to rise (specifically Quarters), this means safeties are going to be asked to match up against WRs in man coverage since many Quarters calls require a safety to match a WR, and often times it's the #2 WR (slot). Slot WRs often get a free release when a defense is in Quarters and even if the overhang defender collides with the #2, the safety that picks up the #2 will have to turn and run with the WR - I believe this is why Kyle wanted speed in the slot, something Juan Jennings does not provide. Ray Ray McCloud was signed as a free agent, but he's more quick than fast. When the 49ers got the chance to add speed they went for the speed demon with Danny Gray.

So on top of the running game differences that we can see coming with how the 49ers drafted bigger RBs to run between the tackles, speed in the slot is another change we could see coming - to combat the defensive changes in the league.

Great post. This was the major shift in how teams D up KC. Course still have fits defending them see Bills, Buffalo. You keep those safeties back they hit you underneath with Hill as opposed to over the top, and he ran by flat footed safeties anyway with like 13 seconds left. Teams will only put the two safeties deep if they respect the ability to throw downfield, which we don't get when we have JG in there. Need to establish it, which is one of the reasons for the Gray pick, no doubt Deebo and BA can fly as well but you need a host of players so teams can't key in on any one guy. What makes us different vs a 2 high safety look is a KS run game. If those safeties are backed up off the LOS, good luck vs a KS run game. We can bring that thump, in ways KC and BUF can't. I just hope KS hasn't factored TL as being part of said run game, at least not with the designed runs.. not a fan..

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Great post. This was the major shift in how teams D up KC. Course still have fits defending them see Bills, Buffalo. You keep those safeties back they hit you underneath with Hill as opposed to over the top, and he ran by flat footed safeties anyway with like 13 seconds left. Teams will only put the two safeties deep if they respect the ability to throw downfield, which we don't get when we have JG in there. Need to establish it, which is one of the reasons for the Gray pick, no doubt Deebo and BA can fly as well but you need a host of players so teams can't key in on any one guy. What makes us different vs a 2 high safety look is a KS run game. If those safeties are backed up off the LOS, good luck vs a KS run game. We can bring that thump, in ways KC and BUF can't. I just hope KS hasn't factored TL as being part of said run game, at least not with the designed runs.. not a fan..

Yes, big time to the bolded.

Funny you brought up Mahomes. This three part series on the state of the NFL defense is good (nerdy) read and it speaks specifically to Mahomes in part 3. The snippet below is from a Broncos versus Chiefs breakdown (Fangio defense)
https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2018/11/09/the-match-game-part-3-the-mahomes-conundrum/
Give Mahomes the same pre-snap looks, but switch into different coverages after the snap to muddy his looks. Play against the offense with an offensive mindset. And most of all, stay disciplined when the Chiefs go into motion in seemingly every possible way.
These are the tenets of modern match coverage, and these are the philosophies that, if adhered to more frequently, could bring defense back into professional football.

You guys remember the defense when Fangio was here? His CBs often aligned with a 5-7 yard cushion, sometimes giving up easy short completions that made us curse the television. But that's what Fangio was doing (bolded above), same presnap look, but once the ball is snapped, there are many things a defense can do from this alignment whether they want to play the various types of Quarters, man up, traditional zone, rotate to single high coverages. This is what makes QBs have to process post snap and gives the pass rush an extra tick to get home. Static look prensap, vary things post snap.

Getting a bit too much into defense there but it's all related. This is from 2021 and shows another way teams are defending the outside zone run (contain the edges). This became a thing when Belichick used similar alignments to shutdown the Rams in the Super Bowl. Whereas Belichick used a 6-1, here GB aligns their OLBs way outside of the OTs/TE. The safeties are at Quarters depth.


The Bear front keeps the LB with long hair clean to track the ball carrier. Notice the playside safety. He's 10 yards deep at the snap (not very deep) and is able to get into the mix when the run tries to get outside. This is why Kyle wants to be able to pound it inside.

Originally posted by thl408:
Getting a bit too much into defense there but it's all related. This is from 2021 and shows another way teams are defending the outside zone run (contain the edges). This became a thing when Belichick used similar alignments to shutdown the Rams in the Super Bowl. Whereas Belichick used a 6-1, here GB aligns their OLBs way outside of the OTs/TE. The safeties are at Quarters depth.


The Bear front keeps the LB with long hair clean to track the ball carrier. Notice the playside safety. He's 10 yards deep at the snap (not very deep) and is able to get into the mix when the run tries to get outside. This is why Kyle wants to be able to pound it inside.

Another good one man. Football is all about counters upon counters. That wide pitch run which goes back to Papa Shanny / Terrell Davis, we saw the KS version of that smoke teams in 2019 with Brieda and Mostert.. of course teams are countering it as you see getting out wide presnap. Sermon, TDP, Banks these are some power football players imo. The one cut is a counter to teams playing out wide.. you can pitch wide and have the back read the D and cut upfield if you have the D moving sideline to sideline and getting out wide. When we drafted Banks I knew something was up he's not the typical guard you would see in our wide runs.. philosophical shift to your point..

One note on the wide runs when we had Deebo go wide.. guess who's on the run side.. Jennings which you would expect with his frame as a run blocker.. of course one time he was not a run blocker he fakes that action and gets upfield.. wide open TD pass from Deebo.. this would be there all day imo very tough to counter.. course not sure we are running Deebo anymore but could do the same play with a RB..

Originally posted by thl408:
A shift has occurred in the NFL landscape when it comes to defenses moving from being predominantly single high to two high safety shells. The era of the Seattle Cover3 has passed and now it's time for Cover2/4 to make a comeback. When the Seattle Cover3 was a thing, Kyle's outside zone scheme started to spread because it was a great counter to those single high coverages.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl-playoffs/2022/1/26/22902126/kyle-shanahan-sean-mcvay-five-years-evolution
2017-2018: The Golden Age of Wide Zone Offenses. At the core of their offenses is the wide zone running play. The value of this type of run was magnified when Mike Shanahan paired it with the West Coast passing game that lives on slants and crossers. These routes broke into the area vacated by the linebackers who were flowing too aggressively with the wide zone run. The play-action passing game behind this offense feels unstoppable.

This is when Kyle's scheme spread as mentioned earlier in this thread. Defenses had to adapt and so many schemes are pulling a safety back. Some defenses cheat to gain a defender in coverage by using 1.5 gap techniques. Now, we see more Quarters (Cover4) and Cover2 - split safety coverages.

Pattern matching has existed for long time 1980. With RPOs and spread formations becoming common, defenses need to adapt coverage wise which is why there could be more of an emphasis on match zone schemes. Vic Fangio was big on that when Harbaugh was here. Fangio has been contacted by the 49ers this offseason to serve as a consultant.

Back to the 49ers offense. If split coverages are going to continue to rise (specifically Quarters), this means safeties are going to be asked to match up against WRs in man coverage since many Quarters calls require a safety to match a WR, and often times it's the #2 WR (slot). Slot WRs often get a free release when a defense is in Quarters and even if the overhang defender collides with the #2, the safety that picks up the #2 will have to turn and run with the WR - I believe this is why Kyle wanted speed in the slot, something Juan Jennings does not provide. Ray Ray McCloud was signed as a free agent, but he's more quick than fast. When the 49ers got the chance to add speed they went for the speed demon with Danny Gray.

So on top of the running game differences that we can see coming with how the 49ers drafted bigger RBs to run between the tackles, speed in the slot is another change we could see coming - to combat the defensive changes in the league.

"And if Shanahan loses, it will serve to only reassert that which we all—McVay, Shanahan, and the football-watching public—know. That X's and O's can do only so much—it's the Jimmies and Joes that truly matter. This magical offense, even when masterminded by Shanahan himself, can elevate quarterbacks only so far. The talent of Stafford will win out over the talent of Garoppolo. And while McVay may have lost the battle of the chalkboard wizards, he won the war when he got the quarterback who was good enough to break the shackles of the offense—and now the pressure is on Shanahan to make sure Lance is that quarterback, as well."

Wow! What an accurate prediction.

^

thl, Goodwin ran almost exclusively outside at the X. Lynch noted that too when talking about Gray. Obviously Gray is going to have to earn that trust that Kyle has been looking for since Goodwin left (Aldrick Robinson, Travis Benjamin and a whole host of others have all failed here after Kyle brought them in here for that role). If he does earn the trust of Kyle and the respect of defenders, do you anticipate Gray running more out at X or more inside at the slot? Or a nice mix of both?

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by thl408:
A shift has occurred in the NFL landscape when it comes to defenses moving from being predominantly single high to two high safety shells. The era of the Seattle Cover3 has passed and now it's time for Cover2/4 to make a comeback. When the Seattle Cover3 was a thing, Kyle's outside zone scheme started to spread because it was a great counter to those single high coverages.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl-playoffs/2022/1/26/22902126/kyle-shanahan-sean-mcvay-five-years-evolution
2017-2018: The Golden Age of Wide Zone Offenses. At the core of their offenses is the wide zone running play. The value of this type of run was magnified when Mike Shanahan paired it with the West Coast passing game that lives on slants and crossers. These routes broke into the area vacated by the linebackers who were flowing too aggressively with the wide zone run. The play-action passing game behind this offense feels unstoppable.

This is when Kyle's scheme spread as mentioned earlier in this thread. Defenses had to adapt and so many schemes are pulling a safety back. Some defenses cheat to gain a defender in coverage by using 1.5 gap techniques. Now, we see more Quarters (Cover4) and Cover2 - split safety coverages.

Pattern matching has existed for long time 1980. With RPOs and spread formations becoming common, defenses need to adapt coverage wise which is why there could be more of an emphasis on match zone schemes. Vic Fangio was big on that when Harbaugh was here. Fangio has been contacted by the 49ers this offseason to serve as a consultant.

Back to the 49ers offense. If split coverages are going to continue to rise (specifically Quarters), this means safeties are going to be asked to match up against WRs in man coverage since many Quarters calls require a safety to match a WR, and often times it's the #2 WR (slot). Slot WRs often get a free release when a defense is in Quarters and even if the overhang defender collides with the #2, the safety that picks up the #2 will have to turn and run with the WR - I believe this is why Kyle wanted speed in the slot, something Juan Jennings does not provide. Ray Ray McCloud was signed as a free agent, but he's more quick than fast. When the 49ers got the chance to add speed they went for the speed demon with Danny Gray.

So on top of the running game differences that we can see coming with how the 49ers drafted bigger RBs to run between the tackles, speed in the slot is another change we could see coming - to combat the defensive changes in the league.

"And if Shanahan loses, it will serve to only reassert that which we all—McVay, Shanahan, and the football-watching public—know. That X's and O's can do only so much—it's the Jimmies and Joes that truly matter. This magical offense, even when masterminded by Shanahan himself, can elevate quarterbacks only so far. The talent of Stafford will win out over the talent of Garoppolo. And while McVay may have lost the battle of the chalkboard wizards, he won the war when he got the quarterback who was good enough to break the shackles of the offense—and now the pressure is on Shanahan to make sure Lance is that quarterback, as well."

Wow! What an accurate prediction.

Two totally different offenses, styles and philosophy though. Comparing apples to oranges. One had 607 passing attempts and the other, near dead last in attempts. And that philosophy in LA didn't change from QB to QB. Stafford was just a better QB than Goff who we're finding out, is pretty poor, to say the least. The flp would be like comparing our running game to theirs. Apples to oranges.