CMC's going to be a daddy! Can the kid tote the rock?

Originally posted by dj43:
I'm going to stay on my soapbox about OL, particularly IOL, here in evaluating the running game.

We all see Nick Chubb at the top of the charts in RBs. What gets overlooked is the incredible OL he gets to run behind. The IOL is on another planet.

Eric Pocic at center is tied for the #3 overall spot with an RBK rating of 73.4. Joe Bitonio is # the 1 overall guard. RBK of 81.5! Wyatt Teller is tied for #2. RBK = 88.2! Tops in the league. The OTs are not quite at that level but are good. 63.1 for Conklin and 78.8 for Hudson.

So, of course, Chubb is going to roll up some awesome numbers. He has the best group in the league to run behind.

Now for those who believe it takes the threat of a very good passing QB in order to run the ball well, Jacoby Brissett has a very average passing rating of 69 compared to Jimmy Garoppolo's 66.7.

Conclusion: If you want to run the ball better, put a better run-blocking OL group upfront and you will run it better.

Of course, the comparative weakness of the OL is not news. We spent the entire offseason lamenting exactly that as being the biggest weakness on the team.

Agreed also having to face some of the most stacked boxes across the league v doesn't help. It's every yr. QB play matters there, not saying Jimmy isn't it paying okay but teams still don't respect the passing game the way they should.

For those that don't know what "yards before contact" means, it is how many yards on average the rb gets prior to being contacted. Wilson is currently near the top of the league in this category despite stacked boxes.

I would like to believe a more talented RB could take advantage of this with more explosive runs

For those that don't understand what 8+ men in the box means or how that applies in context of running the ball…let me explain. Teams on avg are putting an extra safety within 5 yards of the LOS, which puts strain on the running game and gives an advantage to the passing game downfield (defense doesn't respect it)

This usually leads to harder yards for a RB to gain. Toss in a bunch of subpar RBLK from the interior of the OL, well that doesn't equal success for whomever is running the ball.

it's a multi layer issue that goes beyond who's running the ball.

🤤

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by dj43:
I'm going to stay on my soapbox about OL, particularly IOL, here in evaluating the running game.

We all see Nick Chubb at the top of the charts in RBs. What gets overlooked is the incredible OL he gets to run behind. The IOL is on another planet.

Eric Pocic at center is tied for the #3 overall spot with an RBK rating of 73.4. Joe Bitonio is # the 1 overall guard. RBK of 81.5! Wyatt Teller is tied for #2. RBK = 88.2! Tops in the league. The OTs are not quite at that level but are good. 63.1 for Conklin and 78.8 for Hudson.

So, of course, Chubb is going to roll up some awesome numbers. He has the best group in the league to run behind.

Now for those who believe it takes the threat of a very good passing QB in order to run the ball well, Jacoby Brissett has a very average passing rating of 69 compared to Jimmy Garoppolo's 66.7.

Conclusion: If you want to run the ball better, put a better run-blocking OL group upfront and you will run it better.

Of course, the comparative weakness of the OL is not news. We spent the entire offseason lamenting exactly that as being the biggest weakness on the team.

Agreed also having to face some of the most stacked boxes across the league v doesn't help. It's every yr. QB play matters there, not saying Jimmy isn't it paying okay but teams still don't respect the passing game the way they should.

dj just doesn't get it. We would need to run a goaline type offense to counter the stacks on Defense.. like what Atl did to us

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
dj just doesn't get it. We would need to run a goaline type offense to counter the stacks on Defense.. like what Atl did to us

It's a multi layered issue but yeah no one should expect our run game to kick as vs some of the most stacked boxes in the NFL.

as far as CMC, without question he's more talented then anyone we have in our RB room. Sure he makes the team better. Never denied that. purely as a fan I would love to see him here along with any other stud player.

My point is people think our running backs are the issue with the running game and overall that's not really true. NC isn't letting him go for some conditional 3rd rd picks. Reports are they want multiple 1sts, they will never get that but this isn't Pawn Stars, they can just hold onto him….he's under contract.

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by dj43:
I'm going to stay on my soapbox about OL, particularly IOL, here in evaluating the running game.

We all see Nick Chubb at the top of the charts in RBs. What gets overlooked is the incredible OL he gets to run behind. The IOL is on another planet.

Eric Pocic at center is tied for the #3 overall spot with an RBK rating of 73.4. Joe Bitonio is # the 1 overall guard. RBK of 81.5! Wyatt Teller is tied for #2. RBK = 88.2! Tops in the league. The OTs are not quite at that level but are good. 63.1 for Conklin and 78.8 for Hudson.

So, of course, Chubb is going to roll up some awesome numbers. He has the best group in the league to run behind.

Now for those who believe it takes the threat of a very good passing QB in order to run the ball well, Jacoby Brissett has a very average passing rating of 69 compared to Jimmy Garoppolo's 66.7.

Conclusion: If you want to run the ball better, put a better run-blocking OL group upfront and you will run it better.

Of course, the comparative weakness of the OL is not news. We spent the entire offseason lamenting exactly that as being the biggest weakness on the team.

Agreed also having to face some of the most stacked boxes across the league v doesn't help. It's every yr. QB play matters there, not saying Jimmy isn't it paying okay but teams still don't respect the passing game the way they should.

dj just doesn't get it. We would need to run a goaline type offense to counter the stacks on Defense.. like what Atl did to us

The issue centers around your consistent unwillingness to move off your constant attacks on Garoppolo and recognize that bringing in CMC will not change the fact that the drop in the running game is based far more on the identifiable drop in quality of the run blocking by the realigned IOL than it is on QB play.

We have the same QB this year that we had last year at the same time but were running the ball better.

I noted that Cleveland has a much less effective passing game than SF, however, due to the high quality of their OL they are running the ball well despite constantly facing 8-in-the-box. Yet, you ignore that data completely.

I get it. I have seen it for a long time. You choose to focus only on the QB and ignore all other causes. So, let's move on. This theme has circled back to the starting point.

In piecing some stats together from PFF and ESPN

26th in the NFL rushing
27th in the NFL in rush EPA
17th in the NFL in Team Run Block Win Rate
Jeff Wilson Jr is the 38th ranked Rb

Seems like our main RB is dragging the run game down as opposed to helping

It's like Shanny has just forgotten what kind of RB he needs in this offense. 1 cut ability + speed is what makes the outside zone work - and that is the biggest threat of this offense! Raheem Mostert and Matt Breida anyone??? Then if you can find a guy with great vision and a little power, that pumps up the inside zone even more. Then if he has receiving ability and can pass protect, OMG 3 down back forever!!! In this past draft, his name was Breece Hall. Pierre Strong also fit, and was a lter 4th round. But we spend back to back 3rd round picks on backs that just don't really fit. When Buffalo passed on Hall in round 1, I would have been on the phone all night trying to move up to the top of round 2. I figured the Jets and Dolphins would be the next threats to get him.

Per PFF

Brendel is the 28th ranked RBLK center in the NFL (out of 32 starters with at least 116 snaps)
Banks-53rd ranked RBLK guard in the NFL
Burford-64th ranked RBLK guard in the NFL
McG-14th ranked RBLK OT in the NFL
Moore-30th tanked RBLK OT in the NFL

Let's look at the bolded and recognize that's an issue regarding the running game.

You can't address every position with a 1st or 2nd round pick when your team is competitive. That leaves you with a draft pick that's often in the 16-32 range. The Niners don't often have multiple draft picks at 1 and 2 so they usually draft the best player available.

There were a couple of years when they could have drafted an O lineman but then they wouldn't have Bosa or Deebo. They picked Kinlaw and Aiyuk when they had 2 first rounders. Looking back they probably would have been better off picking an O lineman than Kinlaw. That's assuming there was an O linemen worth taking that high that year. O line play has been suffering for years. The ni=umber of quality linemen has gone down largely because of the type of offenses they run in college. So many up tempo option offense that O linemen never really learn to pass block for a pocket passer. They have to learn in the NFL

Recent drafts have been dominated by QBs, DEs and D linemen followed by DBs. O linemen get picked high only when they're exceptional and there just aren't many of those. So we could have drafted more O linemen but then the defense wouldn't be as good and we would be crying that they haven't paid enough attention to the D line.

Originally posted by RDB4216:
It's like Shanny has just forgotten what kind of RB he needs in this offense. 1 cut ability + speed is what makes the outside zone work - and that is the biggest threat of this offense! Raheem Mostert and Matt Breida anyone??? Then if you can find a guy with great vision and a little power, that pumps up the inside zone even more. Then if he has receiving ability and can pass protect, OMG 3 down back forever!!! In this past draft, his name was Breece Hall. Pierre Strong also fit, and was a lter 4th round. But we spend back to back 3rd round picks on backs that just don't really fit. When Buffalo passed on Hall in round 1, I would have been on the phone all night trying to move up to the top of round 2. I figured the Jets and Dolphins would be the next threats to get him.

We can't just run OZ all game though. Defenses have been game planning that for years. You got to be multiple/balanced. Mitchell is that OZ one cut and go runner. He broke the SF rookie rushing record in what 11 games last yr? He can also run IZ too.

the days of having a bell cow are fading away. You need a stable of RBs now.

it's funny people were screaming that we spent legit draft capital on RBs the past couple years, knowing that we can find Joe blow and make him a starting RB in the NFL. Now we're upset that we didn't burn a high 2nd on a RB lol? There's no pleasing fans

Originally posted by Tman:
In piecing some stats together from PFF and ESPN

26th in the NFL rushing
27th in the NFL in rush EPA
17th in the NFL in Team Run Block Win Rate
Jeff Wilson Jr is the 38th ranked Rb

Seems like our main RB is dragging the run game down as opposed to helping

With PFF are you using his running ranking? Because he's 28h overall. Right next to Breece Hall and is graded better than guys like Alvin Kamara, Raheem Mostert, Mixon, Taylor, sanders, Fournette, Najee, conner, hunt, Montgomery, CHE etc.

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by dj43:
I'm going to stay on my soapbox about OL, particularly IOL, here in evaluating the running game.

We all see Nick Chubb at the top of the charts in RBs. What gets overlooked is the incredible OL he gets to run behind. The IOL is on another planet.

Eric Pocic at center is tied for the #3 overall spot with an RBK rating of 73.4. Joe Bitonio is # the 1 overall guard. RBK of 81.5! Wyatt Teller is tied for #2. RBK = 88.2! Tops in the league. The OTs are not quite at that level but are good. 63.1 for Conklin and 78.8 for Hudson.

So, of course, Chubb is going to roll up some awesome numbers. He has the best group in the league to run behind.

Now for those who believe it takes the threat of a very good passing QB in order to run the ball well, Jacoby Brissett has a very average passing rating of 69 compared to Jimmy Garoppolo's 66.7.

Conclusion: If you want to run the ball better, put a better run-blocking OL group upfront and you will run it better.

Of course, the comparative weakness of the OL is not news. We spent the entire offseason lamenting exactly that as being the biggest weakness on the team.

+ Show all quotes
Agreed also having to face some of the most stacked boxes across the league v doesn't help. It's every yr. QB play matters there, not saying Jimmy isn't it paying okay but teams still don't respect the passing game the way they should.

dj just doesn't get it. We would need to run a goaline type offense to counter the stacks on Defense.. like what Atl did to us

The issue centers around your consistent unwillingness to move off your constant attacks on Garoppolo and recognize that bringing in CMC will not change the fact that the drop in the running game is based far more on the identifiable drop in quality of the run blocking by the realigned IOL than it is on QB play.

We have the same QB this year that we had last year at the same time but were running the ball better.

I noted that Cleveland has a much less effective passing game than SF, however, due to the high quality of their OL they are running the ball well despite constantly facing 8-in-the-box. Yet, you ignore that data completely.

I get it. I have seen it for a long time. You choose to focus only on the QB and ignore all other causes. So, let's move on. This theme has circled back to the starting point.

like i said, you just don't get it. There is a difference from an 8 man box vs an 8 man box selling out to stop the run

yes, We faced the 8 man box last year, but no one sold out on the run so dramatically until we faced the Rams the 3rd time (2019 SB also). Since then, a lot teams who could, have done the same thing. Its the very reason we have been passing more. we have to take advantage of the mismatches now in the secondary. Once we start completing more it will open up the Run game.. When this happens, it won't be magic that our Run Blocking starts to get better

So other then the YPC does anybody have something to show that Wilson is even a starter quality back and having a more talented back wouldn't dramatically improve the run game? He really isn't passing the eye test either.

We will probably have to wait for Mitchell to come back so we can see what the run game looks like with a more talented runner this season.