CMC, Elite RB who will start!

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by thl408:
We have a journeyman center with two first year starters at guard, one of which is a rookie, and missing RB1, and missing our dominant LT. I wonder why the run game isn't as effective as last season.

Sounds like we need to have a run heavy plan with JWJ. That would solve it. Pay the big bucks to Deebo and Kittle to block for the bellcow Wilson. Or we could try passing the ball quick hitters to our YAC monsters. Is there a correct answer here?

42

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
If teams didn't respect our running game they wouldn't be stacking the box at a higher rate then just about every team in football…for years

which would create not so favorable run block PFF stats

We need jimmy to cook and not check down so much

Yeah it's a lot of things. Just looking at Jonny's film from ATL you can see some whiffs on that IOL

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by thl408:
We have a journeyman center with two first year starters at guard, one of which is a rookie, and missing RB1, and missing our dominant LT. I wonder why the run game isn't as effective as last season.

Sounds like we need to have a run heavy plan with JWJ. That would solve it. Pay the big bucks to Deebo and Kittle to block for the bellcow Wilson. Or we could try passing the ball quick hitters to our YAC monsters. Is there a correct answer here?

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It checks out

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by Tman:
We are 7th in the league in passing (last i checked) so it hasn't been terrible, is that by necessity? Probably but still not terrible. Jimmy, the Oline and receivers could all play better for sure but all the numbers I look at keep pointing directly towards the person running the ball so far this season.

When you're one of the most stacked against teams in football you automatically have an advantage throwing the ball.

no the numbers don't suggests that… if you look at the IOL PBLK grades

DL said we moved from nearly 39% with 8 in the box to 22% now.

And yet the passing game is still 7th which any fan would be happy with with either QB and it sure isn't because of the effectiveness of the run (27th).

Originally posted by NYniner85:
If teams didn't respect our running game they wouldn't be stacking the box at a higher rate then just about every team in football…for years

Usually you'd be right but this is fake news this year.

Originally posted by NCommand:
DL said we moved from nearly 39% with 8 in the box to 22% now.

And yet the passing game is still 7th which any fan would be happy with with either QB and it sure isn't because of the effectiveness of the run (27th).

We just played two of the worst pass D according to DVOA the last two weeks.

ATL-23rd
NC-25th

22% with 8 in the box is still ridiculous. 39% is stupid lol

Originally posted by dj43:
I'm going to stay on my soapbox about OL, particularly IOL, here in evaluating the running game.

We all see Nick Chubb at the top of the charts in RBs. What gets overlooked is the incredible OL he gets to run behind. The IOL is on another planet.

Eric Pocic at center is tied for the #3 overall spot with an RBK rating of 73.4. Joe Bitonio is # the 1 overall guard. RBK of 81.5! Wyatt Teller is tied for #2. RBK = 88.2! Tops in the league. The OTs are not quite at that level but are good. 63.1 for Conklin and 78.8 for Hudson.

So, of course, Chubb is going to roll up some awesome numbers. He has the best group in the league to run behind.

Now for those who believe it takes the threat of a very good passing QB in order to run the ball well, Jacoby Brissett has a very average passing rating of 69 compared to Jimmy Garoppolo's 66.7.

Conclusion: If you want to run the ball better, put a better run-blocking OL group upfront and you will run it better.

Of course, the comparative weakness of the OL is not news. We spent the entire offseason lamenting exactly that as being the biggest weakness on the team.

You nailed it here, those Gs and C are killing it!

So diving into Cleveland's situation since they have a similar QB dynamic as us.

The Browns are the rushing leaders so far this year

Espn has them ranked at 15th overall in "team run block win rate" at 71%, we are ranked 17th oddly enough also at 71%

Chubb is averaging almost 6 yards per carry (I was told this is impossible), with 3.2 yards before contact and 2.7 yards after contact.

Chubb faces a stacked box a league high 29%

Obviously not fully transferable but if you take JWJ's current yards before contact of 3.7 and CMC maintained his current yards after contact of 2.1 he would be .1 behind Chubb

Does the RB matter? I think so

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by NCommand:
DL said we moved from nearly 39% with 8 in the box to 22% now.

And yet the passing game is still 7th which any fan would be happy with with either QB and it sure isn't because of the effectiveness of the run (27th).

We just played two of the worst pass D according to DVOA the last two weeks.

ATL-23rd
NC-25th

22% with 8 in the box is still ridiculous. 39% is stupid lol

Those were the old Breida and Mostert days. Crazy huh!?!

No need to worry much about an all-inside running game with JWJ. I'd devote more to the passing game too.

Good point...is 22% still high? I genuinely don't know.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by thl408:
We have a journeyman center with two first year starters at guard, one of which is a rookie, and missing RB1, and missing our dominant LT. I wonder why the run game isn't as effective as last season.

Sounds like we need to have a run heavy plan with JWJ. That would solve it. Pay the big bucks to Deebo and Kittle to block for the bellcow Wilson. Or we could try passing the ball quick hitters to our YAC monsters. Is there a correct answer here?

Despite their relative lack of experience, our IOL is relatively decent in PP. It is their RBLK that fails, not the PP.

Of 37 centers rated, Brendel is #21 in PP and #30 in RBLK.
Of 75 guards rated, Banks is #23 in PP and #53 in RBLK.
Burford is #30 in PP, #64 in RBLK

Originally posted by NCommand:
Those were the old Breida and Mostert days. Crazy huh!?!

No need to worry much about an all-inside running game with JWJ. I'd devote more to the passing game too.

Good point...is 22% still high? I genuinely don't know.

Yes it is

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Those were the old Breida and Mostert days. Crazy huh!?!

No need to worry much about an all-inside running game with JWJ. I'd devote more to the passing game too.

Good point...is 22% still high? I genuinely don't know.

Yes it is

Thanks. Didn't have that reference point to the rest of the league.

Either way, we're not matching the points with 7th in passing.

Originally posted by dj43:
Despite their relative lack of experience, our IOL is relatively decent in PP. It is their RBLK that fails, not the PP.

Of 37 centers rated, Brendel is #21 in PP and #30 in RBLK.
Of 75 guards rated, Banks is #23 in PP and #53 in RBLK.
Burford is #30 in PP, #64 in RBLK

Ugh yea that's rough….hopefully they will improve as the season goes along or we can find an upgrade or 2 here

Originally posted by Tman:

Originally posted by dj43:
Despite their relative lack of experience, our IOL is relatively decent in PP. It is their RBLK that fails, not the PP.

Of 37 centers rated, Brendel is #21 in PP and #30 in RBLK.
Of 75 guards rated, Banks is #23 in PP and #53 in RBLK.
Burford is #30 in PP, #64 in RBLK

Ugh yea that's rough….hopefully they will improve as the season goes along or we can find an upgrade or 2 here

I expect Banks to improve a fair bit based on his college DNA. Burford may be slower. Brendel is who he is. I don't expect a lot more from him.

All of this brings me back to whether or not we can afford to bring in a top-tier RB given the limitations of our IOL. The operative word is cost.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
If teams didn't respect our running game they wouldn't be stacking the box at a higher rate then just about every team in football…for years

which would create not so favorable run block PFF stats

We need jimmy to cook and not check down so much

Yeah it's a lot of things. Just looking at Jonny's film from ATL you can see some whiffs on that IOL

so many guys the OL have to account for.. can't stop everyone all the time.. Would be nice to show run then line up to spread the Defense and get those mismatches

run blocking suppose to be the easiest to execute compared to PP.. but for some reason the strength of our team has flipped ..

if the IOL is terrible, they should be worse at PP

Aside from OLine issues, this offense would benefit from a supertar running back like D. Henry, N Chubb, etc. Shanahan's offense is predicated toward the run game yet in 6 drafts we have not been able to draft top tier running back, but we have been able to make decent use of udfa or low round picks. We failed so far in higher round running back picks..

Yes Mitchell is a good back. Is he elite? I'm not sure.

But think what this offense can do with that type of back.