week 10 vs LA Chargers Coaches Film Analysis

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
I would rather have a negative 3 yards on a 1st down run than an 8 yard sack. But maybe that is just me.

That's fair. Plus the holding penalty is 10 yards. That's stupid brutal. False start. We specialize in both (26 through 9 games).

Holding is called on both run and pass plays and so are false starts.

True. Illegal shifts/motions. Delay of game. Now I'm curious which would get called more. More penalties in run/pass? We'd be an interesting case study given we're as close to 50/50 as it gets.

I think you are just grasping at straws at this point. I am not saying we should run it 100% of the time on first down. Obviously we should be looking for a more balanced attack on 1st down since it is a neutral down as far as run and pass are concerned. I just had no issue with the run heavy gameplan against the worste run defense in the NFL. Did it work out in our favor in the first half? No. But we made up for it in the second half and dominated TOP and out gained the opponent by 150 yards.

Bingo. And be willing to shift if you see how a DC is hyper focused on stopping the run rather than just ride and die with the plan.

Kyle's First Down Run ratio

2022 - 37.8%
2021 - 34.9%
2020 - 28.9%
2019 - 36.0%
2018 - 28.4%
2017 - 27.1%

Kyle is a throw lean on first down and has been his entire tenure as an NFL playcaller

That's 8th most. That makes it still very predictable overall.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-first-down-pct

No....No it doesn't.

I don't really care about the amount of runs on first down in the first half and on neutral move-the-ball situations. Shanahan is going to call based on how he thinks to best attack the defense, and that will vary immensely.

What I do get concerned about is the 4th quarter conservatism in 4 minute offense situations, and it's a fair question. Against lesser competition, it's not an issue… but against playoff teams with QB's that can move the ball well……. it's a decision where we may need to consider being more aggressive and passing during 4 minute offenses.

I think there was a couple plays, not sure if they were RPO's, where we had Deebo pass option to the left and CMC run option to the right… it felt like the pass option was open each time but we ran it.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by NCommand:
No need. You'll most likely see it in a few weeks. And your theory was already debunked anyhow.

3 less runs per game if Tua chooses to run instead of pass. Hardly debunked. But carry on.

Furlow did all the work for you. You don't even need to think on it.

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
I would rather have a negative 3 yards on a 1st down run than an 8 yard sack. But maybe that is just me.

That's fair. Plus the holding penalty is 10 yards. That's stupid brutal. False start. We specialize in both (26 through 9 games).

Holding is called on both run and pass plays and so are false starts.

True. Illegal shifts/motions. Delay of game. Now I'm curious which would get called more. More penalties in run/pass? We'd be an interesting case study given we're as close to 50/50 as it gets.

I think you are just grasping at straws at this point. I am not saying we should run it 100% of the time on first down. Obviously we should be looking for a more balanced attack on 1st down since it is a neutral down as far as run and pass are concerned. I just had no issue with the run heavy gameplan against the worste run defense in the NFL. Did it work out in our favor in the first half? No. But we made up for it in the second half and dominated TOP and out gained the opponent by 150 yards.

Bingo. And be willing to shift if you see how a DC is hyper focused on stopping the run rather than just ride and die with the plan.

Kyle's First Down Run ratio

2022 - 37.8%
2021 - 34.9%
2020 - 28.9%
2019 - 36.0%
2018 - 28.4%
2017 - 27.1%

Kyle is a throw lean on first down and has been his entire tenure as an NFL playcaller

That's 8th most. That makes it still very predictable overall.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-first-down-pct

No....No it doesn't.

It sure did Sunday. It's no secret Kyle loves to run on first downs esp. when he's got a run centric game plan.

Originally posted by NCommand:
Furlow did all the work for you. You don't even need to think on it.

20 more passes per game out the RPO. Change those to runs and it's 3 less runs per game.

The idea that the Dolphins are some pass happy offense because of 3 less runs per game, which is mostly dictated by their personnel and strengths, is simple thinking. But then thats par for the course. They aren't the Chiefs

Originally posted by NCommand:
All fair. The conversation coming out of the Rams game was excitement for the passing game. CMC finally added a security blanket for Jimmy and is the ultimate chess piece. Deebo was coming back. Mitchell coming back.

Two weeks to solidify the playbook for CMC and Kyle to draw up his ideal game plan with all his weapons and everyone on offense healthy together (minus only Trey).

"Who are you going to stop? You can't cover everyone!"

Maybe it wasn't fair to expect a more pass centric, creative and explosive passing game coming in last week.

Agreed. It's why I asked Jonny earlier in the thread if we really did change anything up in our offense. Seems like we didn't. Largely, the offense was still the same.

Our identity is not going to change. We're still trying to run the ball. Our passing offense will feature crossers, screens, slants, misdirection, play action passes. I think the biggest thing that CMC brings now is gravity, where he'll draw the defense's gaze and that opens things up.

It's up to Jimmy to make those reads and the throw. And largely, to his credit, he has and has been doing a great job.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
I would rather have a negative 3 yards on a 1st down run than an 8 yard sack. But maybe that is just me.

That's fair. Plus the holding penalty is 10 yards. That's stupid brutal. False start. We specialize in both (26 through 9 games).

Holding is called on both run and pass plays and so are false starts.

True. Illegal shifts/motions. Delay of game. Now I'm curious which would get called more. More penalties in run/pass? We'd be an interesting case study given we're as close to 50/50 as it gets.

I think you are just grasping at straws at this point. I am not saying we should run it 100% of the time on first down. Obviously we should be looking for a more balanced attack on 1st down since it is a neutral down as far as run and pass are concerned. I just had no issue with the run heavy gameplan against the worste run defense in the NFL. Did it work out in our favor in the first half? No. But we made up for it in the second half and dominated TOP and out gained the opponent by 150 yards.

Bingo. And be willing to shift if you see how a DC is hyper focused on stopping the run rather than just ride and die with the plan.

Kyle's First Down Run ratio

2022 - 37.8%
2021 - 34.9%
2020 - 28.9%
2019 - 36.0%
2018 - 28.4%
2017 - 27.1%

Kyle is a throw lean on first down and has been his entire tenure as an NFL playcaller

That's 8th most. That makes it still very predictable overall.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-first-down-pct

No....No it doesn't.

It sure did Sunday. It's no secret Kyle loves to run on first downs esp. when he's got a run centric game plan.

It's almost like they were playing one of the worst run defenses in the league and his defense was playing well enough to allow him to stick with the run. Ground game seem to pick up steam as the game went on. Weird.

Originally posted by Wubbie:
Agreed. It's why I asked Jonny earlier in the thread if we really did change anything up in our offense. Seems like we didn't. Largely, the offense was still the same.

Our identity is not going to change. We're still trying to run the ball. Our passing offense will feature crossers, screens, slants, misdirection, play action passes. I think the biggest thing that CMC brings now is gravity, where he'll draw the defense's gaze and that opens things up.

It's up to Jimmy to make those reads and the throw. And largely, to his credit, he has and has been doing a great job.

When you are the #1 passing DVOA there isn't anything you really need to change. What that should tell you is you just need to focus on executing what you are doing more consistently. Thats the key.

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by a49erfan77:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by BleedsRedNGold:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Great stuff and even better eye. Even that first RPO might have won outside on the pass. No doubt the run is where the 2 weeks were focused on.

Panelli showed a few weeks ago how close these explosives are on the screen game too...just a slightly different angle by Banks (example) and it's a long TD.

You need absolute precision by everyone.

Which probably makes it a terrible scheme. When everyone needs to win their assignments, you're going to have a piss poor offensive performance every week. This is probably the main reason a lot of teams don't use the Zone Run scheme. It's way too complicated even when you have the bodies to run it. With the league nerfing the chop block outside the numbers, it really neutered the outside zone run.

How is this so different than passing plays? Is McG blows a pass block, the play has a big chance of failing. If all the players execute, but Aiyuk has the pass doink off his shoulder, that's a failed play. If everyone executes a good playcall, but the QB misses the read or butchers the throw, that's a failed play. The main player that makes potential failed pass plays look successful is the QB. I'm sure there have been situations where it's a poor playcall versus the coverage, or failed pass block but the QB uses his ability to be a playmaker and makes the coach look good.

Using that same analogy for run plays, if Brendl blows a block, a run play with the potential for a chunk gain is just a short gain. On a running play, the player that makes potential failed run plays look successful is the RB.

Execution is always important whether it be run play or pass play. There is one equalizer in all this, and it's having a player that makes something awesome out of nothing. I would not put Jimmy in that category. I would put Eli/CMC in that category. (yes, I saw the throw to RayRay)

I think the argument here is that passing plays in general are less complex and harder to screw up than complicated zone run plays.

Is that true? I didn't know that.

Yeeeeah. That don't sound right.

Look at the analytics. Sack rates, drop rates, pick rates. The vast majority of big, negative plays happen on passing plays. When you have a great defense, if you don't turn the ball over, you have a huge chance to win.

Kyle is playing to his strengths. Defense, run game, a QB that is good at converting '3rd & medium'. Like you stated, this all points to controlling the clock and limiting turnovers so the defense isn't put into tough situations (short field).

^^^^this formula has won a s**t-load of ball games through out the history of this league.

And it'll win a whole lot more too. The run game has been a big weakness this year though but there are signs it's coming back. This OL's strength is pass protection > run blocking. Which is weird for all of us to experience but it's also no surprise the passing offense was #1 DVOA coming in as a result.

The good news is we should have the ability to shift on a fly when needed and call a game plan both ways...we have...and won.

We want a modern day NFL offense but we still have a JH conservative offense. I truly hate our mentality of not going for the kill shot and always relying on the defense to bring it home.

And the niners constantly run on 1st downs. extremely predictable

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
I would rather have a negative 3 yards on a 1st down run than an 8 yard sack. But maybe that is just me.

That's fair. Plus the holding penalty is 10 yards. That's stupid brutal. False start. We specialize in both (26 through 9 games).

Holding is called on both run and pass plays and so are false starts.

True. Illegal shifts/motions. Delay of game. Now I'm curious which would get called more. More penalties in run/pass? We'd be an interesting case study given we're as close to 50/50 as it gets.

I think you are just grasping at straws at this point. I am not saying we should run it 100% of the time on first down. Obviously we should be looking for a more balanced attack on 1st down since it is a neutral down as far as run and pass are concerned. I just had no issue with the run heavy gameplan against the worste run defense in the NFL. Did it work out in our favor in the first half? No. But we made up for it in the second half and dominated TOP and out gained the opponent by 150 yards.

Bingo. And be willing to shift if you see how a DC is hyper focused on stopping the run rather than just ride and die with the plan.

Kyle's First Down Run ratio

2022 - 37.8%
2021 - 34.9%
2020 - 28.9%
2019 - 36.0%
2018 - 28.4%
2017 - 27.1%

Kyle is a throw lean on first down and has been his entire tenure as an NFL playcaller

That's 8th most. That makes it still very predictable overall.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-first-down-pct

No....No it doesn't.

It sure did Sunday. It's no secret Kyle loves to run on first downs esp. when he's got a run centric game plan.

It's almost like they were playing one of the worst run defenses in the league and his defense was playing well enough to allow him to stick with the run. Ground game seem to pick up steam as the game went on. Weird.

What does that have to do with Kyle being more predictable on first downs with his tendency?

3.8ypc even after losing their two IDT. We were lucky to win that one. Made it about as hard as we could on ourselves.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by Wubbie:
Agreed. It's why I asked Jonny earlier in the thread if we really did change anything up in our offense. Seems like we didn't. Largely, the offense was still the same.

Our identity is not going to change. We're still trying to run the ball. Our passing offense will feature crossers, screens, slants, misdirection, play action passes. I think the biggest thing that CMC brings now is gravity, where he'll draw the defense's gaze and that opens things up.

It's up to Jimmy to make those reads and the throw. And largely, to his credit, he has and has been doing a great job.

When you are the #1 passing DVOA there isn't anything you really need to change. What that should tell you is you just need to focus on executing what you are doing more consistently. Thats the key.

Only if it results in the points. And wins. All it says is you're moving the ball with the pass at an efficient rate higher than anybody. Not the volume of opportunities you're creating for scoring. It means it's a strength. It doesn't guarantee closing the deal.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Furlow did all the work for you. You don't even need to think on it.

20 more passes per game out the RPO. Change those to runs and it's 3 less runs per game.

The idea that the Dolphins are some pass happy offense because of 3 less runs per game, which is mostly dictated by their personnel and strengths, is simple thinking. But then thats par for the course. They aren't the Chiefs

If we are using stats to determine run/pass ratio, it can be a misleading stat in an offense that is RPO heavy since it's the defense that determines whether it's a run or a pass, assuming the RPO is read correctly by the QB.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by BleedsRedNGold:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Great stuff and even better eye. Even that first RPO might have won outside on the pass. No doubt the run is where the 2 weeks were focused on.

Panelli showed a few weeks ago how close these explosives are on the screen game too...just a slightly different angle by Banks (example) and it's a long TD.

You need absolute precision by everyone.

Which probably makes it a terrible scheme. When everyone needs to win their assignments, you're going to have a piss poor offensive performance every week. This is probably the main reason a lot of teams don't use the Zone Run scheme. It's way too complicated even when you have the bodies to run it. With the league nerfing the chop block outside the numbers, it really neutered the outside zone run.

?
I'm not sure where this is coming from. Teams that run primarily zone-run are:
KC
CHI
DEN
GB
LA
LA
SF
CAR
PHI
DAL
ATL
DET
NE
MIA
NYJ
SEA
ARI
JAX

Then there's 50/50 kind of teams
BUF
WAS
TB
NYG

The wide-zone has been sweeping through the league again since Kyle was in ATL

I have a real hard time with, "the scheme is too complicated".

jd, it's not good enough to just call it 'zone run scheme'. The 49ers have gone away from being so outside zone dominant to incorporating more inside zone. This is due to more 2 high safety defenses, and five man fronts that are making a comeback. A better breakdown is how many teams still are heavy on outside zone. I don't watch enough other teams to know. I'd also bucket the 49ers into 50/50, but I can't quantify.

Mmm, well most wide-zone runs can get run inside.

Either way any zone-baseed scheme require guys to execute reach blocks, reads of the defense.
Alex Gibbs didn't treat technique in wide-zone and inside zone all that different. Just where is your initial target line.

The issue people are having isn't the target point but the complexity

Originally posted by Wubbie:

Originally posted by NCommand:
All fair. The conversation coming out of the Rams game was excitement for the passing game. CMC finally added a security blanket for Jimmy and is the ultimate chess piece. Deebo was coming back. Mitchell coming back.

Two weeks to solidify the playbook for CMC and Kyle to draw up his ideal game plan with all his weapons and everyone on offense healthy together (minus only Trey).

"Who are you going to stop? You can't cover everyone!"

Maybe it wasn't fair to expect a more pass centric, creative and explosive passing game coming in last week.

Agreed. It's why I asked Jonny earlier in the thread if we really did change anything up in our offense. Seems like we didn't. Largely, the offense was still the same.

Our identity is not going to change. We're still trying to run the ball. Our passing offense will feature crossers, screens, slants, misdirection, play action passes. I think the biggest thing that CMC brings now is gravity, where he'll draw the defense's gaze and that opens things up.

It's up to Jimmy to make those reads and the throw. And largely, to his credit, he has and has been doing a great job.

Exactly. I just have to rework my expectations a tad. I'm never extreme so it won't be much to rework but now I know.

PS: I don't think Jimmy can sustain this efficiency via his history and because it's such a high level (gotta come back to the mean).

Originally posted by thl408:
If we are using stats to determine run/pass ratio, it can be a misleading stat in an offense that is RPO heavy since it's the defense that determines whether it's a run or a pass, assuming the RPO is read correctly by the QB.

My point exactly