week 10 vs LA Chargers Coaches Film Analysis

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
So would you call a team who passes the ball 63% of the time predictable? Those teams find lots of success through the air inspite of defenses knowing their tendency to throw the ball. Just like there are lots of ways to beat a defense through the air. There are lots of ways to beat a defense on the ground. Our run/pass split is damn near balanced at 48% run and 52% pass. How the hell is that even close to predictable? Besides, I am willing to bet that split leans even more toward pass if you take away the first 5 quarters of the season.

No question. When a team is league leading year after year with a tendency, it's much easier to defend. DC's look for tendencies. Tells. Simple as that.

Your next door neighbor who knows nothing about football can predict it esp. early.

That said, he has found success switching it up some. But that's because it goes against that tendency.

It's no different than Ryans defending McVay's 80% pass rate on first down tendency. He'd be stupid to throw out a heavy run defense.

Like anything in football, you play to the odds/tendencies to defend. And play off them on offense.

Nothing is going to be a 100% tell.

A near 50/50 split is the exact opposite of predictable. Predictable would be Stafford to Kupp and yet that duo is one of the hardest to defend in the league. And what about KC who I was referring to when I said 63% pass? Are they so predictable that they get shut down week after week?

We were talking about a first down tendency. As to whether or not it's still successful is another topic.

Even then, nothing wrong with a 50/50 split. It just puts massive pressure on the passing game. No room for error.

There is no room for error in the NFL period. You take a sack on 1st down and then an incomplete pass on 2nd down and you are in trouble on 3rd down. Since you are so stuck on this 1st down split, where are we at in that stat this season?

Actually there is. Hence why when Stafford throws x2 INT's a game and can still win. Because he'll still have plenty of other opportunities to make up for it. In a run centric offense, 1 INT is far more likely to end in a loss. Hence why every pass is magnified in a run centric offense. You'll see next year with Trey.

Not true. Jimmy has thrown 42 INT's in 54 games as a 49er and yet we have won over 70% of our games with him at QB.

LOL. You know what I mean. Wanna compare apples to apples? How about 2 INT's compared to a pass centric offense that throws 2 INT's.

Like I said, you'll REALLY get this concept next year.

No. I don't. You said Stafford can throw 2 INT's per game and still win. Then you said, in a run centric offense 1 INT is far more likely to end in a loss. I proved you wrong by saying we are a run centric offense and Jimmy has thrown 42 INT's in 54 games and yet we have a 70+ win% with him at QB. Now you are moving the goal posts. And you still haven't answered my question. What is the run/pass split on 1st down this season? You must know the answer since it is the backbone of your entire argument.

Meaning it comes down to opportunities. The more opportunities you have, the more chance you have to overcome some poor costly plays. This is not a hard concept. Look at the flip side. If Jimmy misses one of those 3rd downs, it's a L. Every. Pass. Counts.

If Kyle goes even more run centric next year with Trey, believe me...every one of his 19 passes will be crucial and there will be full film reviews on every one in here.

Be careful what you wish for.

Jimmy's 3rd down passing is the exact reason why he still has a job in this league. Look at the stats of our losses with him at QB. When the run game fails to gain 100+ yards and Jimmy is forced to pass the ball 30+ times we lose 66% of those games. Those. Are. Facts.

Originally posted by NCommand:
Meaning it comes down to opportunities. The more opportunities you have, the more chance you have to overcome some poor costly plays. This is not a hard concept. Look at the flip side. If Jimmy misses one of those 3rd downs, it's a L. Every. Pass. Counts.

If Kyle goes even more run centric next year with Trey, believe me...every one of his 19 passes will be crucial and there will be full film reviews on every one in here.

Be careful what you wish for.

The more you are able to overcome poor costly plays the more opportunities you have. It's less of a function of the offensive scheme and more a function of the execution and talent of the players.

Jimmy can't do what Pat Mahomes did to the 9ers in the SB whether the team throws 20 times or 50 times. Chiefs didn't succeed because of there pass happy offense.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:
Still won't answer the question 😂

I can only get to one clique at a time.

Maybe you shouldn't be getting into multiple pissing matches with multiple posters in multiple threads?. Just a thought. Anyhoo you going to answer his question

Jimmy is more of a relief pitcher than a starting pitcher. He is at his best when he has a low pitch count.

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
So would you call a team who passes the ball 63% of the time predictable? Those teams find lots of success through the air inspite of defenses knowing their tendency to throw the ball. Just like there are lots of ways to beat a defense through the air. There are lots of ways to beat a defense on the ground. Our run/pass split is damn near balanced at 48% run and 52% pass. How the hell is that even close to predictable? Besides, I am willing to bet that split leans even more toward pass if you take away the first 5 quarters of the season.

No question. When a team is league leading year after year with a tendency, it's much easier to defend. DC's look for tendencies. Tells. Simple as that.

Your next door neighbor who knows nothing about football can predict it esp. early.

That said, he has found success switching it up some. But that's because it goes against that tendency.

It's no different than Ryans defending McVay's 80% pass rate on first down tendency. He'd be stupid to throw out a heavy run defense.

Like anything in football, you play to the odds/tendencies to defend. And play off them on offense.

Nothing is going to be a 100% tell.

A near 50/50 split is the exact opposite of predictable. Predictable would be Stafford to Kupp and yet that duo is one of the hardest to defend in the league. And what about KC who I was referring to when I said 63% pass? Are they so predictable that they get shut down week after week?

We were talking about a first down tendency. As to whether or not it's still successful is another topic.

Even then, nothing wrong with a 50/50 split. It just puts massive pressure on the passing game. No room for error.

There is no room for error in the NFL period. You take a sack on 1st down and then an incomplete pass on 2nd down and you are in trouble on 3rd down. Since you are so stuck on this 1st down split, where are we at in that stat this season?

Actually there is. Hence why when Stafford throws x2 INT's a game and can still win. Because he'll still have plenty of other opportunities to make up for it. In a run centric offense, 1 INT is far more likely to end in a loss. Hence why every pass is magnified in a run centric offense. You'll see next year with Trey.

Not true. Jimmy has thrown 42 INT's in 54 games as a 49er and yet we have won over 70% of our games with him at QB.

LOL. You know what I mean. Wanna compare apples to apples? How about 2 INT's compared to a pass centric offense that throws 2 INT's.

Like I said, you'll REALLY get this concept next year.

No. I don't. You said Stafford can throw 2 INT's per game and still win. Then you said, in a run centric offense 1 INT is far more likely to end in a loss. I proved you wrong by saying we are a run centric offense and Jimmy has thrown 42 INT's in 54 games and yet we have a 70+ win% with him at QB. Now you are moving the goal posts. And you still haven't answered my question. What is the run/pass split on 1st down this season? You must know the answer since it is the backbone of your entire argument.

Meaning it comes down to opportunities. The more opportunities you have, the more chance you have to overcome some poor costly plays. This is not a hard concept. Look at the flip side. If Jimmy misses one of those 3rd downs, it's a L. Every. Pass. Counts.

If Kyle goes even more run centric next year with Trey, believe me...every one of his 19 passes will be crucial and there will be full film reviews on every one in here.

Be careful what you wish for.

Jimmy's 3rd down passing is the exact reason why he still has a job in this league. Look at the stats of our losses with him at QB. When the run game fails to gain 100+ yards and Jimmy is forced to pass the ball 30+ times we lose 66% of those games. Those. Are. Facts.

And? He's saving the season. Kyle's ass. Everybody knows that.

But what does that have to do with less opportunities and the hyper importance of every pass in a run centric offense?

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
I would rather have a negative 3 yards on a 1st down run than an 8 yard sack. But maybe that is just me.

That's fair. Plus the holding penalty is 10 yards. That's stupid brutal. False start. We specialize in both (26 through 9 games).

Holding is called on both run and pass plays and so are false starts.

True. Illegal shifts/motions. Delay of game. Now I'm curious which would get called more. More penalties in run/pass? We'd be an interesting case study given we're as close to 50/50 as it gets.

I think you are just grasping at straws at this point. I am not saying we should run it 100% of the time on first down. Obviously we should be looking for a more balanced attack on 1st down since it is a neutral down as far as run and pass are concerned. I just had no issue with the run heavy gameplan against the worste run defense in the NFL. Did it work out in our favor in the first half? No. But we made up for it in the second half and dominated TOP and out gained the opponent by 150 yards.

Bingo. And be willing to shift if you see how a DC is hyper focused on stopping the run rather than just ride and die with the plan.

Kyle's First Down Run ratio

2022 - 37.8%
2021 - 34.9%
2020 - 28.9%
2019 - 36.0%
2018 - 28.4%
2017 - 27.1%

Kyle is a throw lean on first down and has been his entire tenure as an NFL playcaller

That's 8th most. That makes it still very predictable overall.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-first-down-pct

Each week you play a different opponent with different strengths and weaknesses so you game plan accordingly.

These numbers don't accurately reflect play callers tendencies because the play caller will at times use a higher or lower frequency of run plays on first down depending on an opponents strengths/weaknesses, weather/field conditions and ebb and flow of the game.

That's cute but it still isn't hard for a 5 year old to predict what Kyle wants to do on first downs.

8th, 6th, 2nd.

It's no secret.

But the stats that YOU YOURSELF provided don't support your narrative therefore it is a false narrative you are attempting to push.

It is OK to admit you were wrong here. It happens to the best if us.

What narrative? That Kyle has a tendency the opposite of McVay's tendency every single year?

You are deflecting...why is that? Because your stats don't support what you're trying to convey?

My stats are league rankings on who runs the most on first downs. 8th, 6th and 2nd most. That, my friend, is a tendency.

Why did we run 54% of the time on first down VS LAC yet we only ran 19% of the time on first down VS Atlanta?

Oh, now you're changing the topic. You!!! I see you.

Either way, if his tendency holds, he'll still end up at the top again overall.

I'm not disputing he does it every single game. In fact, like DL, I'd prefer he did it less myself. But I get why he does it. And yes, he can still have success with it even if a team knows its coming.

Where did I change the topic? There is a vast discrepancy between the run calls on first downs between the Chargers and Falcons games... why is that? I thought he was predictable.

Originally posted by YACBros85:
Jimmy is more of a relief pitcher than a starting pitcher. He is at his best when he has a low pitch count.

A dude that played in a spread offense in college is best running a Trey Lance passing game from college?

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
I would rather have a negative 3 yards on a 1st down run than an 8 yard sack. But maybe that is just me.

That's fair. Plus the holding penalty is 10 yards. That's stupid brutal. False start. We specialize in both (26 through 9 games).

Holding is called on both run and pass plays and so are false starts.

True. Illegal shifts/motions. Delay of game. Now I'm curious which would get called more. More penalties in run/pass? We'd be an interesting case study given we're as close to 50/50 as it gets.

I think you are just grasping at straws at this point. I am not saying we should run it 100% of the time on first down. Obviously we should be looking for a more balanced attack on 1st down since it is a neutral down as far as run and pass are concerned. I just had no issue with the run heavy gameplan against the worste run defense in the NFL. Did it work out in our favor in the first half? No. But we made up for it in the second half and dominated TOP and out gained the opponent by 150 yards.

Bingo. And be willing to shift if you see how a DC is hyper focused on stopping the run rather than just ride and die with the plan.

Kyle's First Down Run ratio

2022 - 37.8%
2021 - 34.9%
2020 - 28.9%
2019 - 36.0%
2018 - 28.4%
2017 - 27.1%

Kyle is a throw lean on first down and has been his entire tenure as an NFL playcaller

That's 8th most. That makes it still very predictable overall.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-first-down-pct

Each week you play a different opponent with different strengths and weaknesses so you game plan accordingly.

These numbers don't accurately reflect play callers tendencies because the play caller will at times use a higher or lower frequency of run plays on first down depending on an opponents strengths/weaknesses, weather/field conditions and ebb and flow of the game.

That's cute but it still isn't hard for a 5 year old to predict what Kyle wants to do on first downs.

8th, 6th, 2nd.

It's no secret.

But the stats that YOU YOURSELF provided don't support your narrative therefore it is a false narrative you are attempting to push.

It is OK to admit you were wrong here. It happens to the best if us.

What narrative? That Kyle has a tendency the opposite of McVay's tendency every single year?

You are deflecting...why is that? Because your stats don't support what you're trying to convey?

My stats are league rankings on who runs the most on first downs. 8th, 6th and 2nd most. That, my friend, is a tendency.

Why did we run 54% of the time on first down VS LAC yet we only ran 19% of the time on first down VS Atlanta?

Oh, now you're changing the topic. You!!! I see you.

Either way, if his tendency holds, he'll still end up at the top again overall.

I'm not disputing he does it every single game. In fact, like DL, I'd prefer he did it less myself. But I get why he does it. And yes, he can still have success with it even if a team knows its coming.

Where did I change the topic? There is a vast discrepancy between the run calls on first downs between the Chargers and Falcons games... why is that? I thought he was predictable.

The ONLY thing I stated was pointing out a tendency overall. You brought in game by game topics. Which are irrelevant in the end. Because it's still a tendency.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
So would you call a team who passes the ball 63% of the time predictable? Those teams find lots of success through the air inspite of defenses knowing their tendency to throw the ball. Just like there are lots of ways to beat a defense through the air. There are lots of ways to beat a defense on the ground. Our run/pass split is damn near balanced at 48% run and 52% pass. How the hell is that even close to predictable? Besides, I am willing to bet that split leans even more toward pass if you take away the first 5 quarters of the season.

No question. When a team is league leading year after year with a tendency, it's much easier to defend. DC's look for tendencies. Tells. Simple as that.

Your next door neighbor who knows nothing about football can predict it esp. early.

That said, he has found success switching it up some. But that's because it goes against that tendency.

It's no different than Ryans defending McVay's 80% pass rate on first down tendency. He'd be stupid to throw out a heavy run defense.

Like anything in football, you play to the odds/tendencies to defend. And play off them on offense.

Nothing is going to be a 100% tell.

A near 50/50 split is the exact opposite of predictable. Predictable would be Stafford to Kupp and yet that duo is one of the hardest to defend in the league. And what about KC who I was referring to when I said 63% pass? Are they so predictable that they get shut down week after week?

We were talking about a first down tendency. As to whether or not it's still successful is another topic.

Even then, nothing wrong with a 50/50 split. It just puts massive pressure on the passing game. No room for error.

There is no room for error in the NFL period. You take a sack on 1st down and then an incomplete pass on 2nd down and you are in trouble on 3rd down. Since you are so stuck on this 1st down split, where are we at in that stat this season?

Actually there is. Hence why when Stafford throws x2 INT's a game and can still win. Because he'll still have plenty of other opportunities to make up for it. In a run centric offense, 1 INT is far more likely to end in a loss. Hence why every pass is magnified in a run centric offense. You'll see next year with Trey.

Not true. Jimmy has thrown 42 INT's in 54 games as a 49er and yet we have won over 70% of our games with him at QB.

LOL. You know what I mean. Wanna compare apples to apples? How about 2 INT's compared to a pass centric offense that throws 2 INT's.

Like I said, you'll REALLY get this concept next year.

No. I don't. You said Stafford can throw 2 INT's per game and still win. Then you said, in a run centric offense 1 INT is far more likely to end in a loss. I proved you wrong by saying we are a run centric offense and Jimmy has thrown 42 INT's in 54 games and yet we have a 70+ win% with him at QB. Now you are moving the goal posts. And you still haven't answered my question. What is the run/pass split on 1st down this season? You must know the answer since it is the backbone of your entire argument.

Meaning it comes down to opportunities. The more opportunities you have, the more chance you have to overcome some poor costly plays. This is not a hard concept. Look at the flip side. If Jimmy misses one of those 3rd downs, it's a L. Every. Pass. Counts.

If Kyle goes even more run centric next year with Trey, believe me...every one of his 19 passes will be crucial and there will be full film reviews on every one in here.

Be careful what you wish for.

Jimmy's 3rd down passing is the exact reason why he still has a job in this league. Look at the stats of our losses with him at QB. When the run game fails to gain 100+ yards and Jimmy is forced to pass the ball 30+ times we lose 66% of those games. Those. Are. Facts.

And? He's saving the season. Kyle's ass. Everybody knows that.

But what does that have to do with less opportunities and the importance of every pass in a run centric offense?

You and apparently "DL" are the only one's who believe that.

It has a lot to do with it. A good manager knows how many pitches his pitcher is good for. Kyle knows the winning formula with Jimmy. It has worked for nearly 75% of their games together. You want to see change just for the sake of change.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
I would rather have a negative 3 yards on a 1st doOriginally posted by NCommand:

That's fair. Plus the holding penalty is 10 yards. That's stupid brutal. False start. We specialize in both (26 through 9 games).

Holding is called on both run and pass plays and so are false starts.

True. Illegal shifts/motions. Delay of game. Now I'm curious which would get called more. More penalties in run/pass? We'd be an interesting case study given we're as close to 50/50 as it gets.

I think you are just grasping at straws at this point. I am not saying we should run it 100% of the time on first down. Obviously we should be looking for a more balanced attack on 1st down since it is a neutral down as far as run and pass are concerned. I just had no issue with the run heavy gameplan against the worste run defense in the NFL. Did it work out in our favor in the first half? No. But we made up for it in the second half and dominated TOP and out gained the opponent by 150 yards.

Bingo. And be willing to shift if you see how a DC is hyper focused on stopping the run rather than just ride and die with the plan.

Kyle's First Down Run ratio

2022 - 37.8%
2021 - 34.9%
2020 - 28.9%
2019 - 36.0%
2018 - 28.4%
2017 - 27.1%

Kyle is a throw lean on first down and has been his entire tenure as an NFL playcaller

That's 8th most. That makes it still very predictable overall.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-first-down-pct

Each week you play a different opponent with different strengths and weaknesses so you game plan accordingly.

These numbers don't accurately reflect play callers tendencies because the play caller will at times use a higher or lower frequency of run plays on first down depending on an opponents strengths/weaknesses, weather/field conditions and ebb and flow of the game.

That's cute but it still isn't hard for a 5 year old to predict what Kyle wants to do on first downs.

8th, 6th, 2nd.

It's no secret.

But the stats that YOU YOURSELF provided don't support your narrative therefore it is a false narrative you are attempting to push.

It is OK to admit you were wrong here. It happens to the best if us.

What narrative? That Kyle has a tendency the opposite of McVay's tendency every single year?

You are deflecting...why is that? Because your stats don't support what you're trying to convey?

My stats are league rankings on who runs the most on first downs. 8th, 6th and 2nd most. That, my friend, is a tendency.

Why did we run 54% of the time on first down VS LAC yet we only ran 19% of the time on first down VS Atlanta?

Oh, now you're changing the topic. You!!! I see you.

Either way, if his tendency holds, he'll still end up at the top again overall.

I'm not disputing he does it every single game. In fact, like DL, I'd prefer he did it less myself. But I get why he does it. And yes, he can still have success with it even if a team knows its coming.

Where did I change the topic? There is a vast discrepancy between the run calls on first downs between the Chargers and Falcons games... why is that? I thought he was predictable.

The ONLY thing I stated was pointing out a tendency overall. You brought in game by game topics. Which are irrelevant in the end. Because it's still a tendency.

Quoted the wrong post.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:
No question. When a team is league leading year after year with a tendency, it's much easier to defend. DC's look for tendencies. Tells. Simple as that.

Your next door neighbor who knows nothing about football can predict it esp. early.

That said, he has found success switching it up some. But that's because it goes against that tendency.

It's no different than Ryans defending McVay's 80% pass rate on first down tendency. He'd be stupid to throw out a heavy run defense.

Like anything in football, you play to the odds/tendencies to defend. And play off them on offense.

Nothing is going to be a 100% tell.

Literally has not led the league in running percent on first down in the sample provided. 3 years in the top 10 and 3 years in the bottom 10. At no time was it at or approaching 50% on first down. In his time in SF, has thrown the ball between 72%-63% of the time on first down.

So in other words, NC is basing his whole argument off the chargers game?

Here. I'll make it easier for you. 816 already provided the raw %'s.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-attempts-per-game?date=2021-02-08

I've got to correct myself.....THOSE NUMBERS I POSTED originally do not reflect passing plays on first down. That is my error and my fault....I have found data on sharpfootballstats but it only goes to from 2016 to 2021. Kyle's first down throw percentage has ranged from 52% to 40% while in SF. SB year was 40% and last year was 42%. 2020 was at 50% and his first two years were at 52%. I didn't look at many other coaches but McVay's last year was 50% for a comparo.

So I misunderstood the info being presented on team ranking site and wanted to correct it.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
Jimmy is more of a relief pitcher than a starting pitcher. He is at his best when he has a low pitch count.

A dude that played in a spread offense in college is best running a Trey Lance passing game from college?

The proof is out there. I already did the legwork. Want to prove me wrong? How about you finally put in some legwork of your own and try to prove me wrong. I bet you're just afraid to learn the truth. Maybe you just can't handle it.

Why is it relevant what a guy did in college almost a decade ago?

Guess Matt LaFleur should call Jeff Tedford for his playbook to save the Packers season

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
So would you call a team who passes the ball 63% of the time predictable? Those teams find lots of success through the air inspite of defenses knowing their tendency to throw the ball. Just like there are lots of ways to beat a defense through the air. There are lots of ways to beat a defense on the ground. Our run/pass split is damn near balanced at 48% run and 52% pass. How the hell is that even close to predictable? Besides, I am willing to bet that split leans even more toward pass if you take away the first 5 quarters of the season.

No question. When a team is league leading year after year with a tendency, it's much easier to defend. DC's look for tendencies. Tells. Simple as that.

Your next door neighbor who knows nothing about football can predict it esp. early.

That said, he has found success switching it up some. But that's because it goes against that tendency.

It's no different than Ryans defending McVay's 80% pass rate on first down tendency. He'd be stupid to throw out a heavy run defense.

Like anything in football, you play to the odds/tendencies to defend. And play off them on offense.

Nothing is going to be a 100% tell.

A near 50/50 split is the exact opposite of predictable. Predictable would be Stafford to Kupp and yet that duo is one of the hardest to defend in the league. And what about KC who I was referring to when I said 63% pass? Are they so predictable that they get shut down week after week?

We were talking about a first down tendency. As to whether or not it's still successful is another topic.

Even then, nothing wrong with a 50/50 split. It just puts massive pressure on the passing game. No room for error.

There is no room for error in the NFL period. You take a sack on 1st down and then an incomplete pass on 2nd down and you are in trouble on 3rd down. Since you are so stuck on this 1st down split, where are we at in that stat this season?

Actually there is. Hence why when Stafford throws x2 INT's a game and can still win. Because he'll still have plenty of other opportunities to make up for it. In a run centric offense, 1 INT is far more likely to end in a loss. Hence why every pass is magnified in a run centric offense. You'll see next year with Trey.

Not true. Jimmy has thrown 42 INT's in 54 games as a 49er and yet we have won over 70% of our games with him at QB.

LOL. You know what I mean. Wanna compare apples to apples? How about 2 INT's compared to a pass centric offense that throws 2 INT's.

Like I said, you'll REALLY get this concept next year.

No. I don't. You said Stafford can throw 2 INT's per game and still win. Then you said, in a run centric offense 1 INT is far more likely to end in a loss. I proved you wrong by saying we are a run centric offense and Jimmy has thrown 42 INT's in 54 games and yet we have a 70+ win% with him at QB. Now you are moving the goal posts. And you still haven't answered my question. What is the run/pass split on 1st down this season? You must know the answer since it is the backbone of your entire argument.

Meaning it comes down to opportunities. The more opportunities you have, the more chance you have to overcome some poor costly plays. This is not a hard concept. Look at the flip side. If Jimmy misses one of those 3rd downs, it's a L. Every. Pass. Counts.

If Kyle goes even more run centric next year with Trey, believe me...every one of his 19 passes will be crucial and there will be full film reviews on every one in here.

Be careful what you wish for.

Jimmy's 3rd down passing is the exact reason why he still has a job in this league. Look at the stats of our losses with him at QB. When the run game fails to gain 100+ yards and Jimmy is forced to pass the ball 30+ times we lose 66% of those games. Those. Are. Facts.

And? He's saving the season. Kyle's ass. Everybody knows that.

But what does that have to do with less opportunities and the importance of every pass in a run centric offense?

You and apparently "DL" are the only one's who believe that.

It has a lot to do with it. A good manager knows how many pitches his pitcher is good for. Kyle knows the winning formula with Jimmy. It has worked for nearly 75% of their games together. You want to see change just for the sake of change.

The analytics showed that. The splits were large. But I'll let you research that. Or you can ping the Athletic.

Then why bring in CMC? How many YAC monsters do you need to run up the middle?

It's time to evolve.

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:
No question. When a team is league leading year after year with a tendency, it's much easier to defend. DC's look for tendencies. Tells. Simple as that.

Your next door neighbor who knows nothing about football can predict it esp. early.

That said, he has found success switching it up some. But that's because it goes against that tendency.

It's no different than Ryans defending McVay's 80% pass rate on first down tendency. He'd be stupid to throw out a heavy run defense.

Like anything in football, you play to the odds/tendencies to defend. And play off them on offense.

Nothing is going to be a 100% tell.

Literally has not led the league in running percent on first down in the sample provided. 3 years in the top 10 and 3 years in the bottom 10. At no time was it at or approaching 50% on first down. In his time in SF, has thrown the ball between 72%-63% of the time on first down.

So in other words, NC is basing his whole argument off the chargers game?

Here. I'll make it easier for you. 816 already provided the raw %'s.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-attempts-per-game?date=2021-02-08

I've got to correct myself.....THOSE NUMBERS I POSTED originally do not reflect passing plays on first down. That is my error and my fault....I have found data on sharpfootballstats but it only goes to from 2016 to 2021. Kyle's first down throw percentage has ranged from 52% to 40% while in SF. SB year was 40% and last year was 42%. 2020 was at 50% and his first two years were at 52%. I didn't look at many other coaches but McVay's last year was 50% for a comparo.

So I misunderstood the info being presented on team ranking site and wanted to correct it.