week 10 vs LA Chargers Coaches Film Analysis

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
Run game explosives % and rushing TD scoring %.

2019- we were getting an explosive run on 3.2% of our attempts and scoring rushing TD's at a 4.6% rate.

2021- we were getting an explosive run on 2.4% of our attempts and scoring rushing TD's at a 4.4% rate.

2022- we are getting an explosive run on 3.6% of our attempts and scoring rushing TD's at a 3.6% rate.

Damn dude, nice deep dive. Do they define an explosive based on yards gained?

This could really help set up expectations per game/year.

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
Run game explosives % and rushing TD scoring %.

2019- we were getting an explosive run on 3.2% of our attempts and scoring rushing TD's at a 4.6% rate.

2021- we were getting an explosive run on 2.4% of our attempts and scoring rushing TD's at a 4.4% rate.

2022- we are getting an explosive run on 3.6% of our attempts and scoring rushing TD's at a 3.6% rate.

Damn dude, nice deep dive. Do they define an explosive based on yards gained?

This could really help set up expectations per game/year.

ESPN defines BIG run as a 20+ yard run.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
Run game explosives % and rushing TD scoring %.

2019- we were getting an explosive run on 3.2% of our attempts and scoring rushing TD's at a 4.6% rate.

2021- we were getting an explosive run on 2.4% of our attempts and scoring rushing TD's at a 4.4% rate.

2022- we are getting an explosive run on 3.6% of our attempts and scoring rushing TD's at a 3.6% rate.

Damn dude, nice deep dive. Do they define an explosive based on yards gained?

This could really help set up expectations per game/year.

ESPN defines BIG run as a 20+ yard run.

Makes sense to me! Thanks.

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
Run game explosives % and rushing TD scoring %.

2019- we were getting an explosive run on 3.2% of our attempts and scoring rushing TD's at a 4.6% rate.

2021- we were getting an explosive run on 2.4% of our attempts and scoring rushing TD's at a 4.4% rate.

2022- we are getting an explosive run on 3.6% of our attempts and scoring rushing TD's at a 3.6% rate.

Damn dude, nice deep dive. Do they define an explosive based on yards gained?

This could really help set up expectations per game/year.

ESPN defines BIG run as a 20+ yard run.

Makes sense to me! Thanks.

NP. The numbers accumaltively are as follows:

2019- 16 explosive runs and 23 rushing TD's.

2021- 12 explosive runs and 22 rushing TD's.

2022- we are on pace for 17 explosive runs and 17 rushing TD's.

Checkout my redzone splits. The biggest issue seems to be running the ball in the redzone. Our rushing TD's are down this season and the redzone numbers point to a drop in redzone rushing efficiency.

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by grapesofrathman:

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:


I'm kinda buzzing right now but 2:30 in this video of yours, you say banks made the mistake, but its not him its burford. I'm not sure if in the comments it was pointed out or not but you didnt mention it in the video so just pointing it out.

side note the last play you review, I feel like thats defensive holding? but wasn't called...so it seemed more of a FUDGE YOU REF than more of a Brendel whiff? thats just my two cents though.

but overall good stuff, seems to be pretty obvious Kyle's game plan was to attack the weakness of Chargers run defense which is the smart thing to do, 1-3 uncalled or misblocks and its whats going on with the offense lol....

son of a biscuit. Can't believe I mixed up Banks and Burford again....I recorded the audio before I went on Wayne's show and did it on his show too *facepalm*.

Yes, it is defensive holding but it's also a common way DT's try and limit the wide-zone. gotta get that guys hands off you in some way to where you either get that block or it makes that holding so obvious, you draw the penalty.

Just wait until Brunskill takes over for McGlinchey. And Trent Williams legally changes his name to Trent Billiams.

My comment section already blows up each time I mix up Ohmenihu and Drake Jackson, LOL. It'd be full of, "#60 is Brunskill NOT McGlinchey" LOL

Haha. You would probably be better off just calling the number instead. I'm pretty bad with names myself.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
So would you call a team who passes the ball 63% of the time predictable? Those teams find lots of success through the air inspite of defenses knowing their tendency to throw the ball. Just like there are lots of ways to beat a defense through the air. There are lots of ways to beat a defense on the ground. Our run/pass split is damn near balanced at 48% run and 52% pass. How the hell is that even close to predictable? Besides, I am willing to bet that split leans even more toward pass if you take away the first 5 quarters of the season.

No question. When a team is league leading year after year with a tendency, it's much easier to defend. DC's look for tendencies. Tells. Simple as that.

Your next door neighbor who knows nothing about football can predict it esp. early.

That said, he has found success switching it up some. But that's because it goes against that tendency.

It's no different than Ryans defending McVay's 80% pass rate on first down tendency. He'd be stupid to throw out a heavy run defense.

Like anything in football, you play to the odds/tendencies to defend. And play off them on offense.

Nothing is going to be a 100% tell.

A near 50/50 split is the exact opposite of predictable. Predictable would be Stafford to Kupp and yet that duo is one of the hardest to defend in the league. And what about KC who I was referring to when I said 63% pass? Are they so predictable that they get shut down week after week?

We were talking about a first down tendency. As to whether or not it's still successful is another topic.

Even then, nothing wrong with a 50/50 split. It just puts massive pressure on the passing game. No room for error.

There is no room for error in the NFL period. You take a sack on 1st down and then an incomplete pass on 2nd down and you are in trouble on 3rd down. Since you are so stuck on this 1st down split, where are we at in that stat this season?

Actually there is. Hence why when Stafford throws x2 INT's a game and can still win. Because he'll still have plenty of other opportunities to make up for it. In a run centric offense, 1 INT is far more likely to end in a loss. Hence why every pass is magnified in a run centric offense. You'll see next year with Trey.

Not true. Jimmy has thrown 42 INT's in 54 games as a 49er and yet we have won over 70% of our games with him at QB.

LOL. You know what I mean. Wanna compare apples to apples? How about 2 INT's compared to a pass centric offense that throws 2 INT's.

Like I said, you'll REALLY get this concept next year.

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by grapesofrathman:

Originally posted by jonnydel:

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:


I'm kinda buzzing right now but 2:30 in this video of yours, you say banks made the mistake, but its not him its burford. I'm not sure if in the comments it was pointed out or not but you didnt mention it in the video so just pointing it out.

side note the last play you review, I feel like thats defensive holding? but wasn't called...so it seemed more of a FUDGE YOU REF than more of a Brendel whiff? thats just my two cents though.

but overall good stuff, seems to be pretty obvious Kyle's game plan was to attack the weakness of Chargers run defense which is the smart thing to do, 1-3 uncalled or misblocks and its whats going on with the offense lol....

son of a biscuit. Can't believe I mixed up Banks and Burford again....I recorded the audio before I went on Wayne's show and did it on his show too *facepalm*.

Yes, it is defensive holding but it's also a common way DT's try and limit the wide-zone. gotta get that guys hands off you in some way to where you either get that block or it makes that holding so obvious, you draw the penalty.

Just wait until Brunskill takes over for McGlinchey. And Trent Williams legally changes his name to Trent Billiams.

My comment section already blows up each time I mix up Ohmenihu and Drake Jackson, LOL. It'd be full of, "#60 is Brunskill NOT McGlinchey" LOL

Haha. You would probably be better off just calling the number instead. I'm pretty bad with names myself.

I know all our players by # I just sometimes miss the #

Originally posted by jonnydel:
So, for people who say, "if the run game is so complex it requires all 11 guys to precisely execute their job, that's not a good scheme".

I've spent the morning reading through 400 pages of nick Saban's spring install playbook from Alabama. He goes over cover-7(what Ryans calls "palms") a lot with multiple technique variations based off field or boundary side. They have multiple run fit calls depending on formation of the offense and call from the back end coverage alignment. They have check calls for motions of certain players. This all requires the defense to have precise execution.

They chart every play in practice. Did the D win or lose, who was responsible and why. For example: "Loss #43 coverage bust on a cover-2 matching zone" "#24 Red bust" which is a run fit bust.

They chart the D win% compared to the target line of 80%. I promise you Kyle Shanahan is doing the same thing.

This is a college scheme......college. No, Kyle's run scheme isn't "too complex" to be a good scheme. It's the NFL. Everything is super complex.

Originally posted by a49erfan77:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
So would you call a team who passes the ball 63% of the time predictable? Those teams find lots of success through the air inspite of defenses knowing their tendency to throw the ball. Just like there are lots of ways to beat a defense through the air. There are lots of ways to beat a defense on the ground. Our run/pass split is damn near balanced at 48% run and 52% pass. How the hell is that even close to predictable? Besides, I am willing to bet that split leans even more toward pass if you take away the first 5 quarters of the season.

No question. When a team is league leading year after year with a tendency, it's much easier to defend. DC's look for tendencies. Tells. Simple as that.

Your next door neighbor who knows nothing about football can predict it esp. early.

That said, he has found success switching it up some. But that's because it goes against that tendency.

It's no different than Ryans defending McVay's 80% pass rate on first down tendency. He'd be stupid to throw out a heavy run defense.

Like anything in football, you play to the odds/tendencies to defend. And play off them on offense.

Nothing is going to be a 100% tell.

A near 50/50 split is the exact opposite of predictable. Predictable would be Stafford to Kupp and yet that duo is one of the hardest to defend in the league. And what about KC who I was referring to when I said 63% pass? Are they so predictable that they get shut down week after week?

We were talking about a first down tendency. As to whether or not it's still successful is another topic.

Even then, nothing wrong with a 50/50 split. It just puts massive pressure on the passing game. No room for error.

There is no room for error in the NFL period. You take a sack on 1st down and then an incomplete pass on 2nd down and you are in trouble on 3rd down. Since you are so stuck on this 1st down split, where are we at in that stat this season?

Actually there is. Hence why when Stafford throws x2 INT's a game and can still win. Because he'll still have plenty of other opportunities to make up for it. In a run centric offense, 1 INT is far more likely to end in a loss. Hence why every pass is magnified in a run centric offense. You'll see next year with Trey.

Not true. Jimmy has thrown 42 INT's in 54 games as a 49er and yet we have won over 70% of our games with him at QB.

LOL. You know what I mean. Wanna compare apples to apples? How about 2 INT's compared to a pass centric offense that throws 2 INT's.

Like I said, you'll REALLY get this concept next year.

Rams when Stafford throws 2+ INTs: 4-4 (50% win rate)
49ers when Jimmy throws 2+ INTs: 6-7 (46% win rate)
Chiefs when Mahomes throws 2+ INTs: 4-7 (36% win rate)

Rams when Stafford throws just 1 INT: 6-4 (60% win rate)
49ers when Jimmy throws just 1 INT: 13-8 (62% win rate)

Rams when Stafford throws 1+ INT: 10-8 (56% win rate)
49ers when Jimmy throws 1+ INT: 19-15 (56% win rate)

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by evil:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Niners816:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
I would rather have a negative 3 yards on a 1st down run than an 8 yard sack. But maybe that is just me.

That's fair. Plus the holding penalty is 10 yards. That's stupid brutal. False start. We specialize in both (26 through 9 games).

Holding is called on both run and pass plays and so are false starts.

True. Illegal shifts/motions. Delay of game. Now I'm curious which would get called more. More penalties in run/pass? We'd be an interesting case study given we're as close to 50/50 as it gets.

I think you are just grasping at straws at this point. I am not saying we should run it 100% of the time on first down. Obviously we should be looking for a more balanced attack on 1st down since it is a neutral down as far as run and pass are concerned. I just had no issue with the run heavy gameplan against the worste run defense in the NFL. Did it work out in our favor in the first half? No. But we made up for it in the second half and dominated TOP and out gained the opponent by 150 yards.

Bingo. And be willing to shift if you see how a DC is hyper focused on stopping the run rather than just ride and die with the plan.

Kyle's First Down Run ratio

2022 - 37.8%
2021 - 34.9%
2020 - 28.9%
2019 - 36.0%
2018 - 28.4%
2017 - 27.1%

Kyle is a throw lean on first down and has been his entire tenure as an NFL playcaller

That's 8th most. That makes it still very predictable overall.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/rushing-first-down-pct

Each week you play a different opponent with different strengths and weaknesses so you game plan accordingly.

These numbers don't accurately reflect play callers tendencies because the play caller will at times use a higher or lower frequency of run plays on first down depending on an opponents strengths/weaknesses, weather/field conditions and ebb and flow of the game.

That's cute but it still isn't hard for a 5 year old to predict what Kyle wants to do on first downs.

8th, 6th, 2nd.

It's no secret.

But the stats that YOU YOURSELF provided don't support your narrative therefore it is a false narrative you are attempting to push.

It is OK to admit you were wrong here. It happens to the best if us.

What narrative? That Kyle has a tendency the opposite of McVay's tendency every single year?

You are deflecting...why is that? Because your stats don't support what you're trying to convey?

My stats are league rankings on who runs the most on first downs. 8th, 6th and 2nd most. That, my friend, is a tendency.

Why did we run 54% of the time on first down VS LAC yet we only ran 19% of the time on first down VS Atlanta?

Oh, now you're changing the topic. You!!! I see you.

Either way, if his tendency holds, he'll still end up at the top again overall.

I'm not disputing he does it every single game. In fact, like DL, I'd prefer he did it less myself. But I get why he does it. And yes, he can still have success with it even if a team knows its coming.

Where did I change the topic? There is a vast discrepancy between the run calls on first downs between the Chargers and Falcons games... why is that? I thought he was predictable.

The ONLY thing I stated was pointing out a tendency overall. You brought in game by game topics. Which are irrelevant in the end. Because it's still a tendency.

We literally went from 35% in week 9 to seeing that number go to 37% in week 10 because Kyle called runs 54% of the time against a Chargers team. We go from being ranked 13th one week to being ranked 8th the next week.

When you look at how vast the discrepancies can be from week to week (like 19% VS 54%) it illustrates how unreliable the overall average is. Tendencies can and do change from game to game though depending on your strengths and weaknesses VS those of your opponent, and weather/field conditions and ebb and flow of a game can also alter the way one decides to call a game.

In short, you can't rely on the overall averages because you don't play the same teams, you don't play against the same defensive schemes, you don't play in the same weather, on the same field with the same conditions as the previous game each and every week, and each game unfolds differently. And your own roster also changes due to injuries.

We see different tendencies from week to week, not the same tendencies. That isn't irrelevant.