Niners are better than last year by a substantial margin (offense +++, defense -, ST neutral). Cowboys are better or similar (offense neutral, defense +, ST ----).
Removing the QBs from the comparison, towards the end of the season and in the playoffs, these are the two best offenses. Ironically both defenses rank #1 and #2 in DVOA for the year on defense, but I would say that both have struggled down the stretch.
I think this game will be a high-scoring game. Since going to Purdy, we've seen the following team behavior:
- more explosive plays
- shorter offensive drives
- more scoring
- more defensive yards against
- more defensive points against
- more defenive turnovers
Our team is playing more like KC in 2018/2019. We're scoring a bunch of points, defense is on the field more and generally not as dominant as it was in the beginning of the season, but other teams must throw to keep up, so we're also turning opponents over more than earlier in the season too.
I'm nervous over all, because it does come down to the QBs here. From the perspective of Dak Prescott, if he loses here, his contract and his standing as 'SB-capable QB" would look silly. It's hard to imagine them being as good as they've been the past two season as FA's leave and their O-line gets older. If he wins, this is the first NFCCG they've been to since '95. For them, that's statue material for DAL. There's way more pressure on him than Purdy.
For Purdy, he either loses and the offseason conversations begin immediately about QB1 Purdy (great until the end) and Lance. If Purdy wins, then we're probably going to the NFFCG in PHI with one less day to prepare and we'd be underdogs. He will have so far surpassed expectations that a QB competition would seem silly. Lance could get traded. But either way, Purdy enters 2023 offseason as the favorite to be QB1, the pressure on him is dramatically less than Prescott.
