Stats and Strats: Matchup preview vs DAL 2022 playoffs

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
CB's
Anthony Brown- 54.3 rec%, 96.8 passer rating
Trevon Diggs- 68.9 rec%, 99.3 passer rating
DaRon Bland- 72.7 rec%, 82.8 passer rating
Jayron Kearse- 74.0 rec%, 72.1 passer rating

S's
Malik Hooker- 85.7 rec%, 84.5 passer rating
Donovan Wilson- 62.2 rec%, 90.0 passer rating

LB's
L. Vander Esch- 77.1 rec%, 90.3 passer rating
Anthony Barr- 79.3 rec%, 110.8 passer rating

Kearse looked nicked up. Issue with his knee.

I imagine Kyle will try to keep DAL in base personnel and attack those LB's in coverage. DAL's 3rd LBer isn't that good either in coverage.

Very possible. I'm thinking the versatility of Deebo/CMC will get a mismatch. I'm mainly referring to Deebo's ability to line up in the backfield. There are plays where he just goes to the flat as a checkdown. This puts him in LB territory versus zone. If DAL mans up, then it's either a LB or safety covering Deebo or CMC. Whichever player is being covered by a LB/S, that's the mismatch.
If DAL combats this by going nickel personnel, run the ball.

My thoughts exactly.

it is funny here we are 30 years later and the game plan might again be can we run them out of the Nickel defense.

That was the game plan against Dallas in the 90s.

I made these charts last week to predict all 6 winners in the WC round last weekend. For defense the 3 categories are pressure rate, TTT and passer rating. For the QB the 3 categories are Big Time Play (BTP)%, TWP% and passer rating. BTP is the percentage of attempts that turn into TD's and 1st downs when facing pressure. This chart was made using only games that were against playoff teams during the season and in the WC round of the playoffs.



Brock beats Dak in all 3 categories and while our defense hasn't generated as much pressure as Dallas has against playoff competition, pressure does get there in a similar amount of time and QB's have a lower passer rating against us.

Originally posted by thl408:
CeeDee Lamb is going to be a problem. They move him around from out wide, to the slot, to the #3. He separates very well, and is the go to WR for Dak. If Mooney is getting grabby at the line, DAL will probably line Lamb up somewhere away from Mooney.

Best of the many film breakdowns on Lamb imo. He's so shifty.


Where he lines up. Pics taken from the video linked above (video is from 1 month ago)

Last years wildcard matchup we held him to one reception for 21 yards. Dalton Shultz lead the cowboys with 7 receptions for 79 and cooper(who is obviously gone) had 6 for 64 and a td. new year, but we held ceedee in check last time we faced them. our secondary is better this year as well with ward.

Originally posted by YACBros85:
I made these charts last week to predict all 6 winners in the WC round last weekend. For defense the 3 categories are pressure rate, TTT and passer rating. For the QB the 3 categories are Big Time Play (BTP)%, TWP% and passer rating. BTP is the percentage of attempts that turn into TD's and 1st downs when facing pressure. This chart was made using only games that were against playoff teams during the season and in the WC round of the playoffs.



Brock beats Dak in all 3 categories and while our defense hasn't generated as much pressure as Dallas has against playoff competition, pressure does get there in a similar amount of time and QB's have a lower passer rating against us.

I love this approach. Battle of the trenches and the ripple effect.

It looks like we've got the slight edge here.

With their pressure rate, I'm curious to see how Kyle schematically works around that for Brock.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
I made these charts last week to predict all 6 winners in the WC round last weekend. For defense the 3 categories are pressure rate, TTT and passer rating. For the QB the 3 categories are Big Time Play (BTP)%, TWP% and passer rating. BTP is the percentage of attempts that turn into TD's and 1st downs when facing pressure. This chart was made using only games that were against playoff teams during the season and in the WC round of the playoffs.



Brock beats Dak in all 3 categories and while our defense hasn't generated as much pressure as Dallas has against playoff competition, pressure does get there in a similar amount of time and QB's have a lower passer rating against us.

I love this approach. Battle of the trenches and the ripple effect.

It looks like we've got the slight edge here.

With their pressure rate, I'm curious to see how Kyle schematically works around that for Brock.

I imagine we will move the pocket on bootlegs, throw screens and quick slants. I am sure we will give them a heavy dose of the running game as well to wear them down.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:

Originally posted by Jcool:

49ers are #13 DVOA against tight ends. The Cowboys' Dalton Schultz, Christian McCaffrey's teammate at Stanford, is certainly a concern for them.

Dallas personnel is similar to the Raiders' (good RBs, good WR1, good TE) in that the 49ers' discipline vs play-action will be tested

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) January 17, 2023

I'm looking at you, Lemonier and Hufunga

J.Ward too.

huh? since when is he known for biting or peeking

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:

Originally posted by Jcool:

49ers are #13 DVOA against tight ends. The Cowboys' Dalton Schultz, Christian McCaffrey's teammate at Stanford, is certainly a concern for them.

Dallas personnel is similar to the Raiders' (good RBs, good WR1, good TE) in that the 49ers' discipline vs play-action will be tested

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) January 17, 2023

I'm looking at you, Lemonier and Hufunga

J.Ward too.

huh? since when is he known for biting or peeking

IIRC, he's been poor in coverage on TE's too. The whole defense has. He may not bite but he's also not defending anything either.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:

Originally posted by Jcool:

49ers are #13 DVOA against tight ends. The Cowboys' Dalton Schultz, Christian McCaffrey's teammate at Stanford, is certainly a concern for them.

Dallas personnel is similar to the Raiders' (good RBs, good WR1, good TE) in that the 49ers' discipline vs play-action will be tested

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) January 17, 2023

I'm looking at you, Lemonier and Hufunga

J.Ward too.

huh? since when is he known for biting or peeking

IIRC, he's been poor in coverage on TE's too. The whole defense has. He may not bite but he's also not defending anything either.

ah I just responded using them to, " in that the 49ers' discipline vs play-action will be tested"

These always have some statistical tidbits.

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:

Originally posted by Jcool:

49ers are #13 DVOA against tight ends. The Cowboys' Dalton Schultz, Christian McCaffrey's teammate at Stanford, is certainly a concern for them.

Dallas personnel is similar to the Raiders' (good RBs, good WR1, good TE) in that the 49ers' discipline vs play-action will be tested

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) January 17, 2023

I'm looking at you, Lemonier and Hufunga

J.Ward too.

huh? since when is he known for biting or peeking

IIRC, he's been poor in coverage on TE's too. The whole defense has. He may not bite but he's also not defending anything either.

ah I just responded using them to, " in that the 49ers' discipline vs play-action will be tested"

Gotcha!!!

Originally posted by YACBros85:
These always have some statistical tidbits.

That was a lot of fun. Thanks for posting.

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
I made these charts last week to predict all 6 winners in the WC round last weekend. For defense the 3 categories are pressure rate, TTT and passer rating. For the QB the 3 categories are Big Time Play (BTP)%, TWP% and passer rating. BTP is the percentage of attempts that turn into TD's and 1st downs when facing pressure. This chart was made using only games that were against playoff teams during the season and in the WC round of the playoffs.



Brock beats Dak in all 3 categories and while our defense hasn't generated as much pressure as Dallas has against playoff competition, pressure does get there in a similar amount of time and QB's have a lower passer rating against us.

I love this approach. Battle of the trenches and the ripple effect.

It looks like we've got the slight edge here.

With their pressure rate, I'm curious to see how Kyle schematically works around that for Brock.

I imagine we will move the pocket on bootlegs, throw screens and quick slants. I am sure we will give them a heavy dose of the running game as well to wear them down.

I didn't watch closely, but this seemed like what Tampa was trying to do against them (minus the bootlegs because Brady). They didn't have much success until Brady started airing it out down field.

I'm hoping for success on the ground with daggers over the top to make them defend all three levels.

Originally posted by VinculumJuris:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
I made these charts last week to predict all 6 winners in the WC round last weekend. For defense the 3 categories are pressure rate, TTT and passer rating. For the QB the 3 categories are Big Time Play (BTP)%, TWP% and passer rating. BTP is the percentage of attempts that turn into TD's and 1st downs when facing pressure. This chart was made using only games that were against playoff teams during the season and in the WC round of the playoffs.



Brock beats Dak in all 3 categories and while our defense hasn't generated as much pressure as Dallas has against playoff competition, pressure does get there in a similar amount of time and QB's have a lower passer rating against us.

I love this approach. Battle of the trenches and the ripple effect.

It looks like we've got the slight edge here.

With their pressure rate, I'm curious to see how Kyle schematically works around that for Brock.

I imagine we will move the pocket on bootlegs, throw screens and quick slants. I am sure we will give them a heavy dose of the running game as well to wear them down.

I didn't watch closely, but this seemed like what Tampa was trying to do against them (minus the bootlegs because Brady). They didn't have much success until Brady started airing it out down field.

I'm hoping for success on the ground with daggers over the top to make them defend all three levels.

Maybe Shanny feels confident in our pass pro and will continue to call those deep crossers like we did against SEA.