Stats and Strats: Matchup preview vs DAL 2022 playoffs

According to PFF GB's pass blocking is ranked similarly to ours. In the week 10 matchup against DAL, GB's O line gave up a pressure rate of 30.4% with an average TTT of 3.79 seconds. They did give up 2 sacks in the game. GB's running game gained 207 yards and averaged 5.3 YPC.

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by VinculumJuris:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
I made these charts last week to predict all 6 winners in the WC round last weekend. For defense the 3 categories are pressure rate, TTT and passer rating. For the QB the 3 categories are Big Time Play (BTP)%, TWP% and passer rating. BTP is the percentage of attempts that turn into TD's and 1st downs when facing pressure. This chart was made using only games that were against playoff teams during the season and in the WC round of the playoffs.



Brock beats Dak in all 3 categories and while our defense hasn't generated as much pressure as Dallas has against playoff competition, pressure does get there in a similar amount of time and QB's have a lower passer rating against us.

I love this approach. Battle of the trenches and the ripple effect.

It looks like we've got the slight edge here.

With their pressure rate, I'm curious to see how Kyle schematically works around that for Brock.

I imagine we will move the pocket on bootlegs, throw screens and quick slants. I am sure we will give them a heavy dose of the running game as well to wear them down.

I didn't watch closely, but this seemed like what Tampa was trying to do against them (minus the bootlegs because Brady). They didn't have much success until Brady started airing it out down field.

I'm hoping for success on the ground with daggers over the top to make them defend all three levels.

Maybe Shanny feels confident in our pass pro and will continue to call those deep crossers like we did against SEA.

Pass protection has been good imo. It could depend on how DAL comes out trying to defend the 49ers. SEA played a lot of Cover3 to bolster the rush defense - think "Seattle Cover3", which Kyle exploited using playaction and intermediate crossers.
DAL might be known for playing Cover1 Man, but I do see them mix things up so it remains to be seen how they come out on Sunday. If they are man dominant, then I think we may see short crossing routes out of bunch formations to create picks/rubs to free up the short crosser. I've also seen Kyle isolate favorable matchups (overload one side of the field) and get the ball into space when trying to beat man coverage.
SEA made it obvious they wanted to stop the run, let's see what DAL does. What's nice about the 49ers is they come into every game with an established run game because it's their reputation.

Repost from other thread:

Interesting parallels I've noticed:

- LAC (late road game vs. DEN in week 18 followed by a Saturday road game in JAX - short rest, long flights) - came out hot but fell apart
- LAR in 2021 (MNF in wildcard vs. AZ, then played Sunday in TB - short rest, long flights) - came out hot but fell apart, lucky to connect with Kupp or that would have been a collapse too

This is the situation DAL is in this week. So if the pattern continues, they'd score and be up big, but then lose steam and eventually cave (or have a heroic save at the end).

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
Repost from other thread:

Interesting parallels I've noticed:

- LAC (late road game vs. DEN in week 18 followed by a Saturday road game in JAX - short rest, long flights) - came out hot but fell apart
- LAR in 2021 (MNF in wildcard vs. AZ, then played Sunday in TB - short rest, long flights) - came out hot but fell apart, lucky to connect with Kupp or that would have been a collapse too

This is the situation DAL is in this week. So if the pattern continues, they'd score and be up big, but then lose steam and eventually cave (or have a heroic save at the end).

The DAL defense played against 60 dropbacks vs TB, which is less taxing than had TB actually ran the ball. The major disadvantage that I think does matter is the short week of film prep. The 49ers aren't a typical offense in that they use a mix of many personnel groupings and formations. DAL might look back at their prep work from last year's playoff game, but that game didn't have CMC or Brock.

This is going to be exploited, big time. (thanks, Bluesbro). That third LB might get 27 snaps in the first half this Sunday. And if DAL wants to play nickel versus the 49ers 21, it's ground and pound time.

Originally posted by thl408:
This is going to be exploited, big time. (thanks, Bluesbro). That third LB might get 27 snaps in the first half this Sunday. And if DAL wants to play nickel versus the 49ers 21, it's ground and pound time.

The #49ers dominated last week with 21 personnel (2RB, 1 TE).

The Cowboys' defense has faced 21 personnel on only 27 snaps all season (lowest rate in the NFL). #49ers' passing out of 21 personnel vs. nickel defenses:
* 42-of-51, 505 yards, 10.8 YPA.

— Akash Anavarathan (@akashanav) January 21, 2023

Cowboys defense heads will be spinning

I went over passing splits for both Dak and Brock. I made a list of 4 major passing categories and 7 effiency sub categories for each. The 4 major passing categories were 3rd down, redzone, between the 20's and inside own 20. The 7 effiency sub categories were comp.%, YPA, TD%, INT%, FD%, 20+% and sack%.

On 3rd down, Brock beat Dak in 4 of the 7 sub categiries. Brock has a higher comp.%, TD%, FD% and a lower INT%. Dak had a higher YPA, 20+%, and a lower sack%.

Inside the redzone, they are tied with 3. Brock has a higher comp.%, TD% and FD%. Dak has a lower INT%, sack% and a higher YPA.

Between the 20's, Brock has been better than Dak in 6 of the 7 categories. Brock has a higher comp.%, YPA, TD%, 20+% and a lower INT%. Dak has a lower sack%.

Inside own 20, they are tied with 3. Brock has a higher FD%, 20+% and a lower sack%. Dak has a higher comp.%, YPA and a lower INT%.

Brock has been better in 16 of the 26 total effiency sub categories and equal to or better than Dak in all 4 of the major categories.

Originally posted by YACBros85:
I went over passing splits for both Dak and Brock. I made a list of 4 major passing categories and 7 effiency sub categories for each. The 4 major passing categories were 3rd down, redzone, between the 20's and inside own 20. The 7 effiency sub categories were comp.%, YPA, TD%, INT%, FD%, 20+% and sack%.

On 3rd down, Brock beat Dak in 4 of the 7 sub categiries. Brock has a higher comp.%, TD%, FD% and a lower INT%. Dak had a higher YPA, 20+%, and a lower sack%.

Inside the redzone, they are tied with 3. Brock has a higher comp.%, TD% and FD%. Dak has a lower INT%, sack% and a higher YPA.

Between the 20's, Brock has been better than Dak in 6 of the 7 categories. Brock has a higher comp.%, YPA, TD%, 20+% and a lower INT%. Dak has a lower sack%.

Inside own 20, they are tied with 3. Brock has a higher FD%, 20+% and a lower sack%. Dak has a higher comp.%, YPA and a lower INT%.

Brock has been better in 16 of the 26 total effiency sub categories and equal to or better than Dak in all 4 of the major categories.

Good stuff. I saw a chart somewhere saying Dak was really good throwing versus zone coverage, even though he threw many INTs against zone. I'll try to find that later. Too bad I can't remember where I saw that (TV, here, twitter)

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
I went over passing splits for both Dak and Brock. I made a list of 4 major passing categories and 7 effiency sub categories for each. The 4 major passing categories were 3rd down, redzone, between the 20's and inside own 20. The 7 effiency sub categories were comp.%, YPA, TD%, INT%, FD%, 20+% and sack%.

On 3rd down, Brock beat Dak in 4 of the 7 sub categiries. Brock has a higher comp.%, TD%, FD% and a lower INT%. Dak had a higher YPA, 20+%, and a lower sack%.

Inside the redzone, they are tied with 3. Brock has a higher comp.%, TD% and FD%. Dak has a lower INT%, sack% and a higher YPA.

Between the 20's, Brock has been better than Dak in 6 of the 7 categories. Brock has a higher comp.%, YPA, TD%, 20+% and a lower INT%. Dak has a lower sack%.

Inside own 20, they are tied with 3. Brock has a higher FD%, 20+% and a lower sack%. Dak has a higher comp.%, YPA and a lower INT%.

Brock has been better in 16 of the 26 total effiency sub categories and equal to or better than Dak in all 4 of the major categories.

Good stuff. I saw a chart somewhere saying Dak was really good throwing versus zone coverage, even though he threw many INTs against zone. I'll try to find that later. Too bad I can't remember where I saw that (TV, here, twitter)

Interesting. I wonder where they got splits by coverage? I am guessing he has a high comp.% and TD% against zone even though he has a high INT%?

Brock is also better than Dak under pressure when it comes to BTP%, TWP% and passer rating. That alone could be the difference between winning and losing this game because both defenses can bring the heat.

While DAL has been better in the redzone, we have been better at scoring outside of the redzone. That is something that I don't think has been mentioned up until now.

The bottom line is, the defense is going to give up some plays. But if they can continue to steal a couple possessions from the cowboys like they have done to opposing offenses all season long. I really like our chances of pulling away in the 4th quarter.

My prediction is 31-20 49ers.