SF 49ERS at Eagles Pregame Thread - 2022 Season Conference Final

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by Shorteous:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
My formula has us winning and the bengals winning. The formula is 9-1 in straight up picks. 6-0 in the WC round and 3-1 in the DP round. But I was 4-0 against the spread last weekend.

Share the formula!!! I'm a probability junky

DM

I have on here a few times already.

I look at pressure efficiency stats for both defense and QB. For defense, the pressure stats are pressure rate, TTT under pressure and passer rating. For QB's its big time play percentage, turnover worthy play percentage and passer rating. How quickly and how often a defense can apply pressure is one of the biggest influences on a football game. How well QB's handle that pressure is just as important.

I began by using only pressure stats for games against other playoff teams during the season. I add on the stats each week during the playoffs to adjust for most recent performance.

For offense
BTP%- TD%+1stD%.
TWP%- how often a QB puts the ball in harms way.

For defense
Pressure rate- the number of pressures divided by dropbacks.
TTT- time to throw before pressured (PFF exclusive).

Example from last week.

CIN vs BUF

Joe Burrow had a lower TWP% and a higher passer rating than Josh Allen. Allen had a higher BTP%. So Joe Burrow got 2 points and Josh Allen got 1 point.

CIN's defense had a higher pressure rate and a lower passer rating than BUF's defense. BUF had a lower TTT than CIN. So CIN's defense received 2 points and BUF's defense received 1 point.

CIN beats BUF 4-2 in those 6 pressure categories.

The only pickem loss for this formula was that it had JAX over KC. Believe me, I was reluctant at first but the spread was +8.5 for JAX. So I took that bet.

i may have missed it, but what's your numbers say for this weekend ?

Joe Burrow beats Patrick Mahomes in all 3 categories and CIN's defense has a higher pressure rate, and a lower passer rating. So CIN beats KC 5-1.

and the other game ?

I figured I would try to build some suspense.

Brock Purdy beats Jalen Hurts in all 3 pressure categories. Eagles defense has a higher pressure rate, a lower TTT but 49ers defense has a lower passer rating. So 49ers beat eagles 4-2.

i hope your not just trying to sweet talk us

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
Seems like a large majority of the national media is picking PHI.

There's a reason no rookie has won this game, this is what a FQB does.

What the talking heads don't really discuss is Hurts has one bad game and one good game in the playoffs.

Originally posted by YACBros85:
I figured I would try to build some suspense.

Brock Purdy beats Jalen Hurts in all 3 pressure categories. Eagles defense has a higher pressure rate, a lower TTT but 49ers defense has a lower passer rating. So 49ers beat eagles 4-2.

Originally posted by Eaglesfan32:

Originally posted by Silky:
I think that is the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Not you Baldie. Just what that radio station said. How are you going to think the #1 defense will be a cakewalk? How do you think CMC, Deebo, Kittle, Aiyuk, solid Oline, juice, and even an efficient Purdy will be a cakewalk. How would you not practice hard before the NFCCG regardless of the opponent. That's just 100% some dudes random thoughts

This is stupid and not true. Eagles been practicing all week. Nobody is going to take a Championship game lightly. These are 2 of the best rosters in football. Eagles know that. Nobody thinks it's a cake walk.

Originally posted by JMC52:

Originally posted by Silky:

Originally posted by Baldie:
Was listening to 95.7 earlier and they were saying it was reported that Philly didn't even practice much this week with the feeling that Philly probably thinks this game is a cake walk. They already got post game plans to see a concert as a team, etc. It feels like they already know their going to Glendale.

I so hope we beat these b*****ds.

I think that is the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Not you Baldie. Just what that radio station said. How are you going to think the #1 defense will be a cakewalk? How do you think CMC, Deebo, Kittle, Aiyuk, solid Oline, juice, and even an efficient Purdy will be a cakewalk. How would you not practice hard before the NFCCG regardless of the opponent. That's just 100% some dudes random thoughts

Yup, it's cap they want to win just as much as we do and they aren't taking it lightly

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by Shorteous:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
My formula has us winning and the bengals winning. The formula is 9-1 in straight up picks. 6-0 in the WC round and 3-1 in the DP round. But I was 4-0 against the spread last weekend.

Share the formula!!! I'm a probability junky

DM

I have on here a few times already.

I look at pressure efficiency stats for both defense and QB. For defense, the pressure stats are pressure rate, TTT under pressure and passer rating. For QB's its big time play percentage, turnover worthy play percentage and passer rating. How quickly and how often a defense can apply pressure is one of the biggest influences on a football game. How well QB's handle that pressure is just as important.

I began by using only pressure stats for games against other playoff teams during the season. I add on the stats each week during the playoffs to adjust for most recent performance.

For offense
BTP%- TD%+1stD%.
TWP%- how often a QB puts the ball in harms way.

For defense
Pressure rate- the number of pressures divided by dropbacks.
TTT- time to throw before pressured (PFF exclusive).

Example from last week.

CIN vs BUF

Joe Burrow had a lower TWP% and a higher passer rating than Josh Allen. Allen had a higher BTP%. So Joe Burrow got 2 points and Josh Allen got 1 point.

CIN's defense had a higher pressure rate and a lower passer rating than BUF's defense. BUF had a lower TTT than CIN. So CIN's defense received 2 points and BUF's defense received 1 point.

CIN beats BUF 4-2 in those 6 pressure categories.

The only pickem loss for this formula was that it had JAX over KC. Believe me, I was reluctant at first but the spread was +8.5 for JAX. So I took that bet.

i may have missed it, but what's your numbers say for this weekend ?

Joe Burrow beats Patrick Mahomes in all 3 categories and CIN's defense has a higher pressure rate, and a lower passer rating. So CIN beats KC 5-1.

and the other game ?

I figured I would try to build some suspense.

Brock Purdy beats Jalen Hurts in all 3 pressure categories. Eagles defense has a higher pressure rate, a lower TTT but 49ers defense has a lower passer rating. So 49ers beat eagles 4-2.

i hope your not just trying to sweet talk us

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
At least it's the early game. I'll either watch intently for the second game or not waste my time.