SF 49ERS at Eagles Pregame Thread - 2022 Season Conference Final

Originally posted by D0PEMAN:
Our formula is this....we go out....and we HIT EM IN DA MOUTH! And then we BLUDGEON BLUDGEON BLUDGEON because who's got it better than us!? NOOOOBODY!!!

Originally posted by DrEll:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
At least it's the early game. I'll either watch intently for the second game or not waste my time.

Yea same here. If we lose, my season is done. Won't bother watching the other game and the SB I'll watch in passing, as in flipping the channels casually on SH Sunday.

I really do hope we win.

Originally posted by 49erKing:

Originally posted by D0PEMAN:
Our formula is this....we go out....and we HIT EM IN DA MOUTH! And then we BLUDGEON BLUDGEON BLUDGEON because who's got it better than us!? NOOOOBODY!!!

Don't forget to also SWARM SWARM SWARM. Can't agree more right????

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by YACBros85:

Originally posted by Shorteous:

Originally posted by YACBros85:
My formula has us winning and the bengals winning. The formula is 9-1 in straight up picks. 6-0 in the WC round and 3-1 in the DP round. But I was 4-0 against the spread last weekend.

Share the formula!!! I'm a probability junky

DM

I have on here a few times already.

I look at pressure efficiency stats for both defense and QB. For defense, the pressure stats are pressure rate, TTT under pressure and passer rating. For QB's its big time play percentage, turnover worthy play percentage and passer rating. How quickly and how often a defense can apply pressure is one of the biggest influences on a football game. How well QB's handle that pressure is just as important.

I began by using only pressure stats for games against other playoff teams during the season. I add on the stats each week during the playoffs to adjust for most recent performance.

For offense
BTP%- TD%+1stD%.
TWP%- how often a QB puts the ball in harms way.

For defense
Pressure rate- the number of pressures divided by dropbacks.
TTT- time to throw before pressured (PFF exclusive).

Example from last week.

CIN vs BUF

Joe Burrow had a lower TWP% and a higher passer rating than Josh Allen. Allen had a higher BTP%. So Joe Burrow got 2 points and Josh Allen got 1 point.

CIN's defense had a higher pressure rate and a lower passer rating than BUF's defense. BUF had a lower TTT than CIN. So CIN's defense received 2 points and BUF's defense received 1 point.

CIN beats BUF 4-2 in those 6 pressure categories.

The only pickem loss for this formula was that it had JAX over KC. Believe me, I was reluctant at first but the spread was +8.5 for JAX. So I took that bet.

i may have missed it, but what's your numbers say for this weekend ?

Joe Burrow beats Patrick Mahomes in all 3 categories and CIN's defense has a higher pressure rate, and a lower passer rating. So CIN beats KC 5-1.

and the other game ?

I figured I would try to build some suspense.

Brock Purdy beats Jalen Hurts in all 3 pressure categories. Eagles defense has a higher pressure rate, a lower TTT but 49ers defense has a lower passer rating. So 49ers beat eagles 4-2.

i hope your not just trying to sweet talk us

Nah. I wouldn't do that. I was nervous and waited until like Thursday to run the numbers.

Originally posted by Baldie:

Originally posted by DrEll:

Originally posted by NinerBuff:
At least it's the early game. I'll either watch intently for the second game or not waste my time.

Yea same here. If we lose, my season is done. Won't bother watching the other game and the SB I'll watch in passing, as in flipping the channels casually on SH Sunday.

I really do hope we win.

Yup. If we lose, my football season is essentially over. My flag comes down and stashed away until next season.

Originally posted by RiceOwensStokes:
The game is on my birthday

Originally posted by Kolohe:

Originally posted by RiceOwensStokes:
The game is on my birthday

Well I'll let you know what you're getting at about 4:30 PT.

Originally posted by A49ER08:
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAL2540/history/20230127/2240Z/KSJC/KPHL
2 more hours for landing
Niners almost there! gonna beat them eaglettes!

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:

Originally posted by A49ER08:
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAL2540/history/20230127/2240Z/KSJC/KPHL
2 more hours for landing
Niners almost there! gonna beat them eaglettes!

wow creeperrrr

Originally posted by DRCHOWDER:

Originally posted by Sanfran_chrisco:

Originally posted by A49ER08:
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAL2540/history/20230127/2240Z/KSJC/KPHL
2 more hours for landing
Niners almost there! gonna beat them eaglettes!

wow creeperrrr

About 35 mins until the best NFL team arrives in Philly.