Do you see any situation where we give up two firsts , a 2nd and a third for a top 3 pick?

Thanks to all above who came at this question from different angles. Still, i didn't really get the question quite right , and it has to do with sentiment more than anything…9er fan sentiment, that is.

Last yr, with no first rd pick was okay. But then this yr, again with no 1st rd pick, no 2nd or 3rd (except for the 3 compensatory picks we got at end of rd 3…which when you think about it isn't a very good deal for us having given up Demeco et al….still a lot better than nothing), what it felt like was we were let down. I now get that the 9ers aren't just OTAs, practices, games and playoffs. Whether drafting low or high, draft is a significant part of being a 49er fan.

Think of wishful thinking, hoping for a stud from whatever # pick we make, and all the excitement, hope, wonder, and ultimate value of players picked. That was missing last yr, but big deal, just one yr. But followed by this yrs no picks all the way thru rd three (except for above), i felt let down. Draft IS a big deal and is a really strong point of our season. (To wit, look at our last pick last yr, ultimately making our draft sensational.). Only the Bosa pick was that spectacular. Whatever, two seasons with no 1st rd nor rd 2 and 3 this yr…makes it seem like we fans got cheated. Draft is for 49er fans what we look at for 3 months of no football, and then we all spend 12 weeks on the upcoming draft.

I don't want to say we got cheated of a quarter of our season, but that's the feeling i got after this yrs draft was over. I'm not a huge participant of draft, but without high picks for 2 yrs, i have to admit feeling empty…like part of the season (the off season, Jan- April) , got taken away from us. Never noticed it before, but even if we have a lower round pick , there is frequently swapping, trading up to get the stud we end up with. We all know about Reuben, Solomon, and disappointment. But there sure was a wave of "we cleaned house in the draft" after those picks…for some, anyway.

Maybe I'm spoiled by being a 9er fan for the last 45yrs, but having draft with no real picks until rd 4 (and we had none there either) was a huge let down. Trading up or down is basically kaput if you have no picks of your own until rd 5 (pre draft). I wonder if others feel the same let down i did based on our lowly draft picks? Did the 49er F.O inadvertently diminish the fervor of the fan base by their lack of participation in early rds, once again , in the draft?

1 yr didn't bother me…two yrs…yeah…that did. Remember we are talking sentiment here.

3 of the picks we were missing in this years draft were for McCaffrey not Lance. We'll be missing another next year too. I'm not complaining about that.

I think that when you evaluate the cost for Lance you have to reckon in what it would have cost in any case to get a potential top tier QB through any means. Whether trade or draft you have to pay a king's ransom, so I don't think the price was necessarily too high. Did they whiff on the target though? We don't really know. Kid has played 4 games or so. I'm hoping all this 'L@nce $ucks' type chat is going to look mighty stoopid a few years down he line.

Originally posted by joeknows:
3 of the picks we were missing in this years draft were for McCaffrey not Lance. We'll be missing another next year too. I'm not complaining about that.

I think that when you evaluate the cost for Lance you have to reckon in what it would have cost in any case to get a potential top tier QB through any means. Whether trade or draft you have to pay a king's ransom, so I don't think the price was necessarily too high. Did they whiff on the target though? We don't really know. Kid has played 4 games or so. I'm hoping all this 'L@nce $ucks' type chat is going to look mighty stoopid a few years down he line.

no you don't that's a fallacy

Brock Purdy
Warner
Brady
Hurts
Dak
Russ
Brees
Young
Montana

in fact all our FQBs our HOF guys were not acquired for a kings ransom, far from it

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
no you don't that's a fallacy

Brock Purdy
Warner
Brady
Hurts
Dak
Russ
Brees
Young
Montana

in fact all our FQBs our HOF guys were not acquired for a kings ransom, far from it

It's a king's ransom if you want to do it right away, i.e.- if you think you are in a 'win now' window.

Let's look at your examples -

Purdy - forget it - you can't go looking for a top tier QB in the 7th round. That was an exception.
Warner - signed from Arena Football basically. Again, total exception. You can't go shopping for a top QB in the 'little leagues'.
Brady - 6th round draft pick. If the niners had waited till the 6th round the only QB available (assuming someone else would have taken Trey Lance) was Sam Ehlinger. Brady he aint.
Hurts - Eagles were nowhere near 'win now' when they drafted Hurts. They had 3 losing seasons in a row culminating in a 4-11 record in 2020. They were in rebuild and were able to develop a QB from scratch. It took 3 further seasons before Hurts did anything significant (yes, it's taking Lance just as long, but that was not the plan!).

And so it goes on - Young was considered an absolute bust prior to his trade to the 49ers; King Joe was not brought into a 'win now' situation either.

None of the above was replicable by Lynch and Shanahan in 2021. None of that is possible without a hindsight machine. For every one of those success stories you would have to harvest another 20 or so duds (perhaps more). Picking at 3 overall reduces those odds massively.

I'm not saying that we made the right choice. Time will tell. I'm just saying there weren't a bunch of similar choices that could be made, and certainly not much cheaper.

Originally posted by joeknows:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
no you don't that's a fallacy

Brock Purdy
Warner
Brady
Hurts
Dak
Russ
Brees
Young
Montana

in fact all our FQBs our HOF guys were not acquired for a kings ransom, far from it

It's a king's ransom if you want to do it right away, i.e.- if you think you are in a 'win now' window.

Let's look at your examples -

Purdy - forget it - you can't go looking for a top tier QB in the 7th round. That was an exception.
Warner - signed from Arena Football basically. Again, total exception. You can't go shopping for a top QB in the 'little leagues'.
Brady - 6th round draft pick. If the niners had waited till the 6th round the only QB available (assuming someone else would have taken Trey Lance) was Sam Ehlinger. Brady he aint.
Hurts - Eagles were nowhere near 'win now' when they drafted Hurts. They had 3 losing seasons in a row culminating in a 4-11 record in 2020. They were in rebuild and were able to develop a QB from scratch. It took 3 further seasons before Hurts did anything significant (yes, it's taking Lance just as long, but that was not the plan!).

And so it goes on - Young was considered an absolute bust prior to his trade to the 49ers; King Joe was not brought into a 'win now' situation either.

None of the above was replicable by Lynch and Shanahan in 2021. None of that is possible without a hindsight machine. For every one of those success stories you would have to harvest another 20 or so duds (perhaps more). Picking at 3 overall reduces those odds massively.

I'm not saying that we made the right choice. Time will tell. I'm just saying there weren't a bunch of similar choices that could be made, and certainly not much cheaper.

None were replicable.. what on earth, we legit drafted Purdy, so forget imagining if we could do it, we already done did it

Hurts was otb when we were on the clock
so was Mahomes
Cousins acquired by MIN
Stafford by LAR
Brady by TB
all this stuff taking place while KS is running the 49er show
we could have effectively traded Solomon Thomas for Mahomes, it would have been 1 one, not 3.
sure you mention hindsight, but let's get real, how many NFL QBs require an investment of three ones, maybe Lance and DEN version of Russ, basically every other QB is wayyy cheaper in draft capital.

i will never understand ppl saying oh it's no big deal flipping all these ones for a QB cuz you are swinging for the fences, I mean that same logic would hold if we gave up 7 years of ones, at what point do we stop and say this is stupid.

You can't predict the future so there's no way I could say I wouldn't give up a lot of draft capital to move up. If the team falls on hard times, which is always possible then they could do something drastic to try and get back to the top. If Trey and Brock fail to get the team to a SB victory, they could possibly make a big move again if there was a QB sitting in a spot that they could grab.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
You can't predict the future so there's no way I could say I wouldn't give up a lot of draft capital to move up. If the team falls on hard times, which is always possible then they could do something drastic to try and get back to the top. If Trey and Brock fail to get the team to a SB victory, they could possibly make a big move again if there was a QB sitting in a spot that they could grab.

the fact you can't predict the future is precisely why you shouldn't move up
you are putting all your eggs in one basket and hoping the pick hits

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
None were replicable.. what on earth, we legit drafted Purdy, so forget imagining if we could do it, we already done did it

Hurts was otb when we were on the clock
so was Mahomes
Cousins acquired by MIN
Stafford by LAR
Brady by TB
all this stuff taking place while KS is running the 49er show
we could have effectively traded Solomon Thomas for Mahomes, it would have been 1 one, not 3.
sure you mention hindsight, but let's get real, how many NFL QBs require an investment of three ones, maybe Lance and DEN version of Russ, basically every other QB is wayyy cheaper in draft capital.

i will never understand ppl saying oh it's no big deal flipping all these ones for a QB cuz you are swinging for the fences, I mean that same logic would hold if we gave up 7 years of ones, at what point do we stop and say this is stupid.

It's a big deal. But it can be managed if you are hitting on the other picks like this team has.

What's gonna be much harder to manage going forward is if the team misses again with a max QB contract.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
None were replicable.. what on earth, we legit drafted Purdy, so forget imagining if we could do it, we already done did it

Hurts was otb when we were on the clock
so was Mahomes
Cousins acquired by MIN
Stafford by LAR
Brady by TB
all this stuff taking place while KS is running the 49er show
we could have effectively traded Solomon Thomas for Mahomes, it would have been 1 one, not 3.
sure you mention hindsight, but let's get real, how many NFL QBs require an investment of three ones, maybe Lance and DEN version of Russ, basically every other QB is wayyy cheaper in draft capital.

i will never understand ppl saying oh it's no big deal flipping all these ones for a QB cuz you are swinging for the fences, I mean that same logic would hold if we gave up 7 years of ones, at what point do we stop and say this is stupid.

It's a big deal. But it can be managed if you are hitting on the other picks like this team has.

What's gonna be much harder to manage going forward is if the team misses again with a max QB contract.

my suspicion is if we flexed those picks more wisely we already won #6
if by 'you can manage it' you mean your team can still be competitive, sure
I remember the Pistons drafted Darko and passed on Wade and Carmelo
Darko actually has a ring, as they won it all with him, which we have yet to do
so sure, there are historical examples of not getting production out of a big draft investment, and winning anyway
yet Detroit still could have been a much bigger dynasty if they don't whiff on that pick, so it's not like the whiff didn't hurt them, it did
it's just a bad idea imo
on the big contract, there is no such thing as a max contract in the NFL, that's an NBA term or a term for leagues where there is a maximum player salary
most of those deals you can get out, and the less sold you are on the QB, the more you build in annual outs, NFL has yet to adopt fully gtd contracts

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
my suspicion is if we flexed those picks more wisely we already won #6
if by 'you can manage it' you mean your team can still be competitive, sure
I remember the Pistons drafted Darko and passed on Wade and Carmelo
Darko actually has a ring, as they won it all with him, which we have yet to do
so sure, there are historical examples of not getting production out of a big draft investment, and winning anyway
yet Detroit still could have been a much bigger dynasty if they don't whiff on that pick, so it's not like the whiff didn't hurt them, it did
it's just a bad idea imo
on the big contract, there is no such thing as a max contract in the NFL, that's an NBA term or a term for leagues where there is a maximum player salary
most of those deals you can get out, and the less sold you are on the QB, the more you build in annual outs, NFL has yet to adopt fully gtd contracts

They are lottery picks. Hard to know.

We know what DeForrest Buckner brought. No suspicion is needed.

Don't want to lose All Pro Drake Jackson because of 40 mil going to Brock Purdy or Trey Lance and not get the production in return.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
my suspicion is if we flexed those picks more wisely we already won #6
if by 'you can manage it' you mean your team can still be competitive, sure
I remember the Pistons drafted Darko and passed on Wade and Carmelo
Darko actually has a ring, as they won it all with him, which we have yet to do
so sure, there are historical examples of not getting production out of a big draft investment, and winning anyway
yet Detroit still could have been a much bigger dynasty if they don't whiff on that pick, so it's not like the whiff didn't hurt them, it did
it's just a bad idea imo
on the big contract, there is no such thing as a max contract in the NFL, that's an NBA term or a term for leagues where there is a maximum player salary
most of those deals you can get out, and the less sold you are on the QB, the more you build in annual outs, NFL has yet to adopt fully gtd contracts

They are lottery picks. Hard to know.

We know what DeForrest Buckner brought

the fact they are hard to know is why I would rather have three swings of the axe and not one super swing
Buck was a stud in the NFL and we flipped him for a swing at the unpredictable draft, the mistake there was not paying the man a big deal, should have backed up the truck for Buck

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
the fact they are hard to know is why I would rather have three swings of the axe and not one super swing
Buck was a stud in the NFL and we flipped him for a swing at the unpredictable draft, the mistake there was not paying the man a big deal, should have backed up the truck for Buck

There is a reason they didn't back the truck up. They were overpaying at QB.

It's why they can afford Hargrave now.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
None were replicable.. what on earth, we legit drafted Purdy, so forget imagining if we could do it, we already done did it

Hurts was otb when we were on the clock
so was Mahomes
Cousins acquired by MIN
Stafford by LAR
Brady by TB
all this stuff taking place while KS is running the 49er show
we could have effectively traded Solomon Thomas for Mahomes, it would have been 1 one, not 3.
sure you mention hindsight, but let's get real, how many NFL QBs require an investment of three ones, maybe Lance and DEN version of Russ, basically every other QB is wayyy cheaper in draft capital.

i will never understand ppl saying oh it's no big deal flipping all these ones for a QB cuz you are swinging for the fences, I mean that same logic would hold if we gave up 7 years of ones, at what point do we stop and say this is stupid.

Replicable is when something happens again (or it can be made to happen again), not when it happens as a one off .

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
the fact they are hard to know is why I would rather have three swings of the axe and not one super swing
Buck was a stud in the NFL and we flipped him for a swing at the unpredictable draft, the mistake there was not paying the man a big deal, should have backed up the truck for Buck

There is a reason they didn't back the truck up. They were overpaying at QB.

lol there is always money, we went out and added Trent that same offseason
there was no overpay at QB, with that QB out of the lineup we stacked Ls
I don't buy this philosophy of QB on the rook contract, cuz at some point you will have to pay your QB the 2nd contract, unless you want to keep chaining one rook QB after another, that will fail tho, as eventually you will get dud QBs.
TL quickly has burned up half his rook contract, doing next to nothing, and his rook deal isn't all that cheap either

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
lol there is always money, we went out and added Trent that same offseason
there was no overpay at QB, with that QB out of the lineup we stacked Ls
I don't buy this philosophy of QB on the rook contract, cuz at some point you will have to pay your QB the 2nd contract, unless you want to keep chaining one rook QB after another, that will fail tho, as eventually you will get dud QBs.
TL quickly has burned up half his rook contract, doing next to nothing, and his rook deal isn't all that cheap either

Yah paying 40 mil a year for slightly above average production would ABSOLUTELY be an overpay.

9 mil a year is a far cry from 27.

Trent was nearly 10 mil less in cap hit in 2020 then Buckner. Wasn't the same at all.