Draft record failure

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
Not being able to afford to sign your draft picks 2nd contract is a good problem to have IMO

This.

If you have guys that you can't sign but other teams want, it means you're getting value back in a trade or draft compensation when they walk elsewhere. Its a major factor in how Baltimore has been able to stay competitive for two decades.

No matter how people dance around it, there is no good excuse for the dismal early drafting record of this regime. Yes the roster is strong, imagine how much stronger it could be if they weren't constantly blowing early picks on guys like Kinlaw, Pettis, Hurd, Sermon, Tarvarius Moore and all the firsts they dropped on Lance.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
Not being able to afford to sign your draft picks 2nd contract is a good problem to have IMO

This.

If you have guys that you can't sign but other teams want, it means you're getting value back in a trade or draft compensation when they walk elsewhere. Its a major factor in how Baltimore has been able to stay competitive for two decades.

No matter how people dance around it, there is no good excuse for the dismal early drafting record of this regime. Yes the roster is strong, imagine how much stronger it could be if they weren't constantly blowing early picks on guys like Kinlaw, Pettis, Hurd, Sermon, Tarvarius Moore and all the firsts they dropped on Lance.

100%

I think we are in a similar boat as to when we were right there for a SB with Harbaugh and Baalkes horrendous draft picks didn't let us get over that hump.

we want to get 3-4 starters per draft and we want to have a regime like Bmore where we can let them walk bc we can hit big on another draft

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33297949/nfl-draft-which-teams-gotten-best-value-2012-rank-all-32

it's not pretty for us

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
100%

I think we are in a similar boat as to when we were right there for a SB with Harbaugh and Baalkes horrendous draft picks didn't let us get over that hump.

we want to get 3-4 starters per draft and we want to have a regime like Bmore where we can let them walk bc we can hit big on another draft

4 starters per draft is a very high bar.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
Not being able to afford to sign your draft picks 2nd contract is a good problem to have IMO

This.

If you have guys that you can't sign but other teams want, it means you're getting value back in a trade or draft compensation when they walk elsewhere. Its a major factor in how Baltimore has been able to stay competitive for two decades.

No matter how people dance around it, there is no good excuse for the dismal early drafting record of this regime. Yes the roster is strong, imagine how much stronger it could be if they weren't constantly blowing early picks on guys like Kinlaw, Pettis, Hurd, Sermon, Tarvarius Moore and all the firsts they dropped on Lance.

They'd be the unquestioned best roster in the league. That being said they are in the conversation for that without doing that. So while tweaks should be made to allow for draft to come to them more often it's also difficult to be upset with a top 3 roster however they are getting there.

Originally posted by 9ers4eva:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
100%

I think we are in a similar boat as to when we were right there for a SB with Harbaugh and Baalkes horrendous draft picks didn't let us get over that hump.

we want to get 3-4 starters per draft and we want to have a regime like Bmore where we can let them walk bc we can hit big on another draft

4 starters per draft is a very high bar.

Extremely unrealistic . 3 is a great draft

They are gamblers. Sometimes they hit,...sometimes they miss.

All that calculated "if if" stuff is for the birds cause that's simply not how gambling works. If you are going to add in good-to-great hits in the 1st and 2nd round picks,...then you're going to need to subtract the hits in the lower rounds,...starting with Mr. Irrelevant last year,....as he's the most valuable player on our roster right now being paid peanuts.

So filling in Kinlaw pick as a quality starting piece on defense? Fine. Then make the Brock pick a player that was cut and now out of the league.

You see how this works? You gotta play this both ways. You cant play the "IF" game and still keep all the players that have far outperformed where they were taken or what they signed for.

Saying there's no excuse is nonsense IMO cause I just gave you one, lol. If you want conservative, calculated experts,...these are not your guys, and it's never going to be the way they do things.

What they are doing is pretty clear,....and the only question is whether or not it ever wears out its welcome. As of now, they are winning at the game.

I think we all want them to hit on the higher rounds more frequently and the pendulum will probably swing at some point.

The goal is to get 2 to 3 starters per year and it really doesn't matter where they are selected. Each round just adjusts the probability per selection and it has no bearing on how good the player can become.

It's easy to be an armchair GM...not easy to be a real one. I'd bet if you talked to any team GM they'd say they've had their share of great picks and not-so-great picks. In the end, it's a crapshoot...there are some "can't-miss" prospects that hit, a goodly number that don't. I think there's room for criticism, but that has to be tempered with praise for compiling the rosters we've enjoyed the past 4-5 years. Could they do better...hopefully, yes. That said, I think they've done a very good job overall with the draft.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

So imagine how they could be ranked better than 1st in defense? the offense could have been better but it only had its new stud FQB in for 6 games.

The results of the draft are the roster and the roster is measured by rankings.

There is no draft record failure, the point is moot.

Good enough to not lose to the Chiefs? Good enough to not lose to the Rams in the NFCCG?

No matter how good you are, you can always be better and since the 49ers as of yet don't have a Mahomes that can make up for a lot of shortcomings, they need to max out the value of their draft picks. Using a total of four 1st rounders and one third round pick on Kinlaw and Lance, getting zero back in production for those five picks is not maxing the value of those picks.

Had they gotten even gotten average return on those picks its likely that they have 6 SB trophies right now and a better overall roster.

What piece geta them which Super Bowl?

We need to stop gambling in the 1st and start drafting bpa go ahead and gamble/drafting need 2-7 rounds.
Solomon Thomas, Reuben Foster, Trey Lance, and Javon Kinlaw were all gambles

Originally posted by eman:
for all the success we have enjoyed picking in the late rounds and getting gems like Fred Warner, George Kittle, Talanoa Hufuanga, it was very interesting to look back and see all the draft whiffs this team made in the early rounds !!

Let's look back at the first round picks this regime made

2017: Solomon Thomas (#3)
Reuben Foster (#31)
2018: Mike McGlinchey (#9)
2019: Nick Bosa (#2)
2020: Jevon Kinlaw (#14)
Brandon Aiyuk (#25)
2021: Trey Lance (#3)

2 out of 7 were hits! Nick Bosa was a can't miss prospect
but we had 3 top 3 picks, 5 top 13 picks
to only come out with 2 picks that hit is really unacceptable !!

when we go for top player available, we hit well!
but when we go for need, we end up with duds like Thomas, Kinlaw, Mcglinchey.

McGlinchey was drafted too high, but he wasn't horrible compared to some of the others. To add to your list the lost first rounders in 2022 and 2023. Aiyuk is very good but I don't think he is better than Tee Higgins (2nd round), or Michael Pittman Jr. (2nd round). Bosa was a complete no brainer so glad the Cardinals didn't pick him.

Originally posted by EastBay:

Originally posted by eman:
for all the success we have enjoyed picking in the late rounds and getting gems like Fred Warner, George Kittle, Talanoa Hufuanga, it was very interesting to look back and see all the draft whiffs this team made in the early rounds !!

Let's look back at the first round picks this regime made

2017: Solomon Thomas (#3)
Reuben Foster (#31)
2018: Mike McGlinchey (#9)
2019: Nick Bosa (#2)
2020: Jevon Kinlaw (#14)
Brandon Aiyuk (#25)
2021: Trey Lance (#3)

2 out of 7 were hits! Nick Bosa was a can't miss prospect
but we had 3 top 3 picks, 5 top 13 picks
to only come out with 2 picks that hit is really unacceptable !!

when we go for top player available, we hit well!
but when we go for need, we end up with duds like Thomas, Kinlaw, Mcglinchey.

McGlinchey was drafted too high, but he wasn't horrible compared to some of the others. To add to your list the lost first rounders in 2022 and 2023. Aiyuk is very good but I don't think he is better than Tee Higgins (2nd round), or Michael Pittman Jr. (2nd round). Bosa was a complete no brainer so glad the Cardinals didn't pick him.

Agree. It's really only 1/6 because bosa was such a complete no brainier it took no evaluation to know he was the pick. Aiyuk being the only pick they have hit on.

We are lucky they traded the 3 picks for lance because we would just be cursing those busts names instead of the 3 lost for lance instead. Given their track record.

On the macro level I am quite happy with this regime's track record. When you include Undrafted FA to the list we have developed a ton of talent. Think of all the guys that have gone from practice squad to solid starter in the League.

Early draft picks are always a gamble, however these guys have put together a very talented roster using all the tools available.

Originally posted by eman:
No I'd rather have half my 1st rd picks hit, while getting the gems in later rounds as we did

just pointing out , we had high draft picks and we are not hitting on them

If it's so easy to hit on all rounds why don't other team's do it & win 5,6,7+ back to back SB's?

No front office is perfect or we'd be ticked off every year, unless it was the 49er FO. John & Kyle built the team up and have got them back into contention most every year since year 3, that's about the best a fan can hope for is a decent shot at a SB ring.