Draft record failure

Let's go back to 2000. How many good 1 st round picks have we really gotten.

Alex Smith
Patrick Willis
Joe Staley
Aldon Smith
Veron Davis

To name a few.

Originally posted by Since07:
We need to stop gambling in the 1st and start drafting bpa go ahead and gamble/drafting need 2-7 rounds.
Solomon Thomas, Reuben Foster, Trey Lance, and Javon Kinlaw were all gambles

College performance compared to NFL performance is a massive step up. What is great in college is below par in NFL. It is a huge trap.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
Not being able to afford to sign your draft picks 2nd contract is a good problem to have IMO

This.

If you have guys that you can't sign but other teams want, it means you're getting value back in a trade or draft compensation when they walk elsewhere. Its a major factor in how Baltimore has been able to stay competitive for two decades.

No matter how people dance around it, there is no good excuse for the dismal early drafting record of this regime. Yes the roster is strong, imagine how much stronger it could be if they weren't constantly blowing early picks on guys like Kinlaw, Pettis, Hurd, Sermon, Tarvarius Moore and all the firsts they dropped on Lance.

I think there are some extremes here and you have to notice them as well, which is why sometimes these discussions are infuriating. The extreme of Lynch and co should be fired for their draft failures, which came before the it's all good because they are winning crowd.

Yes, they absolutely need to do better and in spite of yet another failed first round pick, I think there has been a small shift since 2017. It hurts because they have been so slow to change and the things they tried was a big middle finger to conventional wisdom.

1. Red flag guys- after Reuben Foster, they haven't really invested into guys with character concerns. Some might say Foster shouldn't have been picked, but he was a great talent and great value where he was taken. The signs were there that we should've passed, but they gave it a shot and failed. We haven't seen them take a guy with those kinds of red flags since (which is also why the we could've drafted Micah Parsons talk is silly- I can imagine what that guy is going to be like with money and veteran status in the locker room).

2. Guys with injury concerns- I don't think any team has been burned by injuries the way we have over a 5-6 year period. We took Kinlaw, in spite of the medical concerns. After the nighmarish year of 2020 and Kinlaw's inability to stay healthy, we haven't invested high picks in guys with those injury issues.

3. The talented, the raw, the positionless,etc- This is Solomon Thomas. It's also Trey Lance (the first 2 adjectives). It remains to be seen if they move off of this. They also have to get over the great guy thing- meaning both Thomas and Lance were great guys, very likeble. But that didn't make them good.

4. The third round running back- the curse was finally broken in 2023, and regardless of what happens with Latu and Moody, I think both should surpass the contributions of Trey Sermon and TDP.

5. Wide receiver whiffs- We have gotten so good in this area that people forget this was an area of weakness at one point.

I think their biggest issue early is overthinking and drafting for need as opposed to going BPA. If they can just switch to a BPA philosophy on day 1 and 2, we are going to go on a serious run.

I had this conversation on Twitter earlier.

I think there is valid concern there. For me I need Kyle to learn from his mistakes and maybe be willing to listen to others more than he has.

Hitting on Brock is crazy luck and by all accounts the pick was pushed for by Griese and one of our front office assistants. And that seems to be a trend for the late round guys, they seem to be more assistant led picks.

Well one thing we've seen is if Kyle has a guy HE really likes or wants it doesn't matter where the rankings are, where the consensus for those guys is board wise…we go and get them.

That's why I want Kyle to be right on his guys because those are the guys who we fight to draft. So having them work out is important.

We remember CJ Beathard? We moved up into the 3rd to get him just so Kyle could feel good about it that night. Joe Williams? Off the board but Kyle wanted him. We moved up into the 4th to get him.

While it's great to hit on late round guys it's always a risk to get those since the further down you go the more chances are another team grabs them. That goes even more for QB position.

I hope Kyle is here for a long time and eventually when Brock retires we'll have to hit on another QB. Kyle has to be right on in his evaluation for that one. Can't have another Lance or Beathard situation.

i think this is a pretty good take by Cowherd. You have to click and listen to the video. It's about the results and less about the how we got to those results.

yes we have been bad with early round picks but we have still been successful overall. I hope they get better in that area but until we start losing I won't worry.

Of course Cowherd is right there. It doesn't matter how you find your QB. Just that you find them. We did in the 7th round.

Originally posted by genus49:
I had this conversation on Twitter earlier.

I think there is valid concern there. For me I need Kyle to learn from his mistakes and maybe be willing to listen to others more than he has.

Hitting on Brock is crazy luck and by all accounts the pick was pushed for by Griese and one of our front office assistants. And that seems to be a trend for the late round guys, they seem to be more assistant led picks.

Well one thing we've seen is if Kyle has a guy HE really likes or wants it doesn't matter where the rankings are, where the consensus for those guys is board wise…we go and get them.

That's why I want Kyle to be right on his guys because those are the guys who we fight to draft. So having them work out is important.

We remember CJ Beathard? We moved up into the 3rd to get him just so Kyle could feel good about it that night. Joe Williams? Off the board but Kyle wanted him. We moved up into the 4th to get him.

While it's great to hit on late round guys it's always a risk to get those since the further down you go the more chances are another team grabs them. That goes even more for QB position.

I hope Kyle is here for a long time and eventually when Brock retires we'll have to hit on another QB. Kyle has to be right on in his evaluation for that one. Can't have another Lance or Beathard situation.

I'm with you - I think kyle has a ton of influence on who we draft in the first three rounds and we've missed quite a bit. Then we seem to hit on our 4-7th round and UDFA much more. The fact that we've missed as much as we have in the first three rounds is strange and I think it's cause kyle falls in love with certain players and it's almost always a mistake. The only good news is that when we do hit in the first 2 rounds, It's usually an awesome player. but when we miss, its horrific and they don't even play.

2017: Soloman Thomas (can't believe we took him), reuban Foster, Witherspoon, Cj Beathard, Joe Williams - this is the first Three rounds.

2018: McGlinchey (not bad but I don't think he played like you'd expect from a top 10 pick)
Dante Pettis...

2019: Bosa (a braindead monkey would of picked Bosa), Deebo Samuel (amazing), Jalen Hurd

2020: Kinlaw (awful), Aiyuk (amazing)

2021: Trey Lance (Awful), Aaron Banks (look to be a really good pick), Trey Sermon (awful)

First Round: Hit 3/9 picks (Bosa, Aiyuk, McG - Mcg was servicable atleast)

Second Round: We've only had 4 second round picks - 2/3 (I'm not counting the fourth one, Drake, because we don't know yet. Deebo, Aaron Banks - missed on pettis)

Third Round: 1/10 - Fred Warner is our only hit so far.

Total 1-3 Round Picks: 6/22 - We've had 22 selections in the first three rounds and have hit on 6 (Bosa, Aiyuk, McG, Deebo, Aaron Banks, Fred Warner)
We are hitting 27% of the time in the first three rounds (not including the most recent draft)

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
I think there are some extremes here and you have to notice them as well, which is why sometimes these discussions are infuriating. The extreme of Lynch and co should be fired for their draft failures, which came before the it's all good because they are winning crowd.

Yes, they absolutely need to do better and in spite of yet another failed first round pick, I think there has been a small shift since 2017. It hurts because they have been so slow to change and the things they tried was a big middle finger to conventional wisdom.

1. Red flag guys- after Reuben Foster, they haven't really invested into guys with character concerns. Some might say Foster shouldn't have been picked, but he was a great talent and great value where he was taken. The signs were there that we should've passed, but they gave it a shot and failed. We haven't seen them take a guy with those kinds of red flags since (which is also why the we could've drafted Micah Parsons talk is silly- I can imagine what that guy is going to be like with money and veteran status in the locker room).

2. Guys with injury concerns- I don't think any team has been burned by injuries the way we have over a 5-6 year period. We took Kinlaw, in spite of the medical concerns. After the nighmarish year of 2020 and Kinlaw's inability to stay healthy, we haven't invested high picks in guys with those injury issues.

3. The talented, the raw, the positionless,etc- This is Solomon Thomas. It's also Trey Lance (the first 2 adjectives). It remains to be seen if they move off of this. They also have to get over the great guy thing- meaning both Thomas and Lance were great guys, very likeble. But that didn't make them good.

4. The third round running back- the curse was finally broken in 2023, and regardless of what happens with Latu and Moody, I think both should surpass the contributions of Trey Sermon and TDP.

5. Wide receiver whiffs- We have gotten so good in this area that people forget this was an area of weakness at one point.

I think their biggest issue early is overthinking and drafting for need as opposed to going BPA. If they can just switch to a BPA philosophy on day 1 and 2, we are going to go on a serious run.

Agree with all of this. I think they need to calm down and let the draft come to them early on. Don't fall in love and reach for a player or become blind to their issues, especially injury issues just because you're crazy about their film or personality or desperate for help at the position. As you said, they've clearly adjusted their approach when they've made mistakes so hopefully they keep refining and start getting better value out of these earlier picks because they are going to really need it, especially when its Brock's turn to get paid.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
I think there are some extremes here and you have to notice them as well, which is why sometimes these discussions are infuriating. The extreme of Lynch and co should be fired for their draft failures, which came before the it's all good because they are winning crowd.

Yes, they absolutely need to do better and in spite of yet another failed first round pick, I think there has been a small shift since 2017. It hurts because they have been so slow to change and the things they tried was a big middle finger to conventional wisdom.

1. Red flag guys- after Reuben Foster, they haven't really invested into guys with character concerns. Some might say Foster shouldn't have been picked, but he was a great talent and great value where he was taken. The signs were there that we should've passed, but they gave it a shot and failed. We haven't seen them take a guy with those kinds of red flags since (which is also why the we could've drafted Micah Parsons talk is silly- I can imagine what that guy is going to be like with money and veteran status in the locker room).

2. Guys with injury concerns- I don't think any team has been burned by injuries the way we have over a 5-6 year period. We took Kinlaw, in spite of the medical concerns. After the nighmarish year of 2020 and Kinlaw's inability to stay healthy, we haven't invested high picks in guys with those injury issues.

3. The talented, the raw, the positionless,etc- This is Solomon Thomas. It's also Trey Lance (the first 2 adjectives). It remains to be seen if they move off of this. They also have to get over the great guy thing- meaning both Thomas and Lance were great guys, very likeble. But that didn't make them good.

4. The third round running back- the curse was finally broken in 2023, and regardless of what happens with Latu and Moody, I think both should surpass the contributions of Trey Sermon and TDP.

5. Wide receiver whiffs- We have gotten so good in this area that people forget this was an area of weakness at one point.

I think their biggest issue early is overthinking and drafting for need as opposed to going BPA. If they can just switch to a BPA philosophy on day 1 and 2, we are going to go on a serious run.

Agree with all of this. I think they need to calm down and let the draft come to them early on. Don't fall in love and reach for a player or become blind to their issues, especially injury issues just because you're crazy about their film or personality or desperate for help at the position. As you said, they've clearly adjusted their approach when they've made mistakes so hopefully they keep refining and start getting better value out of these earlier picks because they are going to really need it, especially when its Brock's turn to get paid.

Yup. I look at the 2023 and the 2024 draft that will dictate how long we get to sustain ourselves. It was the '86 draft that got us through the 80s and into the early 90s. Hopefully this current draft and the next do the same. I expect to lose Dre Greenlaw, Lenoir, Juice, Williams, Mitchell and AA (can people believe its year 9?) in the next 2-3 years. We will need to continue to hit and reload, having good to great players on rookie deals.

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
Yup. I look at the 2023 and the 2024 draft that will dictate how long we get to sustain ourselves. It was the '86 draft that got us through the 80s and into the early 90s. Hopefully this current draft and the next do the same. I expect to lose Dre Greenlaw, Lenoir, Juice, Williams, Mitchell and AA (can people believe its year 9?) in the next 2-3 years. We will need to continue to hit and reload, having good to great players on rookie deals.

I hope we can resign Greenlaw. I think we can get Lenoir on a cheaper extension if we do it soon, same with Mitchell, AA, but I expect to lose Juice.

I think we will sign an extension with AA soon to help with his cap hit and generate cap room.

Originally posted by Eastcoast49er:
Let's go back to 2000. How many good 1 st round picks have we really gotten.

Alex Smith
Patrick Willis
Joe Staley
Aldon Smith
Veron Davis

To name a few.

.... AND the beat goes ON !!!

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
Yup. I look at the 2023 and the 2024 draft that will dictate how long we get to sustain ourselves. It was the '86 draft that got us through the 80s and into the early 90s. Hopefully this current draft and the next do the same. I expect to lose Dre Greenlaw, Lenoir, Juice, Williams, Mitchell and AA (can people believe its year 9?) in the next 2-3 years. We will need to continue to hit and reload, having good to great players on rookie deals.

I hope we can resign Greenlaw. I think we can get Lenoir on a cheaper extension if we do it soon, same with Mitchell, AA, but I expect to lose Juice.

I think we will sign an extension with AA soon to help with his cap hit and generate cap room.

I don't know, that's a lot. I wish we can, bust I just don't see it. If Deebo returns to form, he's going to be up for a new deal in 2 seasons. I expect us to retain Aiyuk. I'd love to keep Mitchell, but that injury history is brutal. It would have to be an incentive laden deal, because as great as I think he can be, he just isn't reliable. If Mitchell could get through a season, it would be the most talented backfields going back to the Million Dollar Backfield. No disrespect to Craig/Rathman, but Mitchell/CMC/Juice would be next level.

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
Yup. I look at the 2023 and the 2024 draft that will dictate how long we get to sustain ourselves. It was the '86 draft that got us through the 80s and into the early 90s. Hopefully this current draft and the next do the same. I expect to lose Dre Greenlaw, Lenoir, Juice, Williams, Mitchell and AA (can people believe its year 9?) in the next 2-3 years. We will need to continue to hit and reload, having good to great players on rookie deals.

I hope we can resign Greenlaw. I think we can get Lenoir on a cheaper extension if we do it soon, same with Mitchell, AA, but I expect to lose Juice.

I think we will sign an extension with AA soon to help with his cap hit and generate cap room.

I don't know, that's a lot. I wish we can, bust I just don't see it. If Deebo returns to form, he's going to be up for a new deal in 2 seasons. I expect us to retain Aiyuk. I'd love to keep Mitchell, but that injury history is brutal. It would have to be an incentive laden deal, because as great as I think he can be, he just isn't reliable. If Mitchell could get through a season, it would be the most talented backfields going back to the Million Dollar Backfield. No disrespect to Craig/Rathman, but Mitchell/CMC/Juice would be next level.

Maybe AB can chime in on it - he was takling about this. it's how we will clear some cap room going forward, extending some our key guys and making their hits lower and pushing it out. Like Aiyuk, Deebo, Armstead etc. I dont think we keep juice and that is why we have Colleto in the wings this year. it'll be tough but its year 7, some of these guys have been here a long time.

Originally posted by eman:
for all the success we have enjoyed picking in the late rounds and getting gems like Fred Warner, George Kittle, Talanoa Hufuanga, it was very interesting to look back and see all the draft whiffs this team made in the early rounds !!

Let's look back at the first round picks this regime made

2017: Solomon Thomas (#3)
Reuben Foster (#31)
2018: Mike McGlinchey (#9)
2019: Nick Bosa (#2)
2020: Jevon Kinlaw (#14)
Brandon Aiyuk (#25)
2021: Trey Lance (#3)

2 out of 7 were hits! Nick Bosa was a can't miss prospect
but we had 3 top 3 picks, 5 top 13 picks
to only come out with 2 picks that hit is really unacceptable !!

when we go for top player available, we hit well!
but when we go for need, we end up with duds like Thomas, Kinlaw, Mcglinchey.

You cant say mcg was a dud.

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by genus49:
I had this conversation on Twitter earlier.

I think there is valid concern there. For me I need Kyle to learn from his mistakes and maybe be willing to listen to others more than he has.

Hitting on Brock is crazy luck and by all accounts the pick was pushed for by Griese and one of our front office assistants. And that seems to be a trend for the late round guys, they seem to be more assistant led picks.

Well one thing we've seen is if Kyle has a guy HE really likes or wants it doesn't matter where the rankings are, where the consensus for those guys is board wise…we go and get them.

That's why I want Kyle to be right on his guys because those are the guys who we fight to draft. So having them work out is important.

We remember CJ Beathard? We moved up into the 3rd to get him just so Kyle could feel good about it that night. Joe Williams? Off the board but Kyle wanted him. We moved up into the 4th to get him.

While it's great to hit on late round guys it's always a risk to get those since the further down you go the more chances are another team grabs them. That goes even more for QB position.

I hope Kyle is here for a long time and eventually when Brock retires we'll have to hit on another QB. Kyle has to be right on in his evaluation for that one. Can't have another Lance or Beathard situation.

I'm with you - I think kyle has a ton of influence on who we draft in the first three rounds and we've missed quite a bit. Then we seem to hit on our 4-7th round and UDFA much more. The fact that we've missed as much as we have in the first three rounds is strange and I think it's cause kyle falls in love with certain players and it's almost always a mistake. The only good news is that when we do hit in the first 2 rounds, It's usually an awesome player. but when we miss, its horrific and they don't even play.

2017: Soloman Thomas (can't believe we took him), reuban Foster, Witherspoon, Cj Beathard, Joe Williams - this is the first Three rounds.

2018: McGlinchey (not bad but I don't think he played like you'd expect from a top 10 pick)
Dante Pettis...

2019: Bosa (a braindead monkey would of picked Bosa), Deebo Samuel (amazing), Jalen Hurd

2020: Kinlaw (awful), Aiyuk (amazing)

2021: Trey Lance (Awful), Aaron Banks (look to be a really good pick), Trey Sermon (awful)

First Round: Hit 3/9 picks (Bosa, Aiyuk, McG - Mcg was servicable atleast)

Second Round: We've only had 4 second round picks - 2/3 (I'm not counting the fourth one, Drake, because we don't know yet. Deebo, Aaron Banks - missed on pettis)

Third Round: 1/10 - Fred Warner is our only hit so far.

Total 1-3 Round Picks: 6/22 - We've had 22 selections in the first three rounds and have hit on 6 (Bosa, Aiyuk, McG, Deebo, Aaron Banks, Fred Warner)
We are hitting 27% of the time in the first three rounds (not including the most recent draft)

Check this out

no claim this is 100% correct, I sure as heck am not about to do the leg work to prove it right or wrong

Long term Draft Breakdown (NFL)

"The data shows that it becomes much, much more unlikely to find an elite player in round 2 than anywhere in round 1 – only 5.3% of players at any position selected in round 2 went on to make even one First Team All Pro team, as compared to 22% for picks 1 – 10, 18% for picks 11 – 20, and 13.% for picks 21 – 32. Only 17.9% of 2nd round picks made even one Pro Bowl, as compared to 51%, 40.5%, and 29.2% for picks 1 – 10, 11 – 20, and 21 – 32, respectively. But it's the "bust rate" in which round 2 picks really fall off the cliff: 34.4% only started 1+ seasons."As an executive summary, if you take nothing else from this column pay attention to the total percentages of starters unearthed in each round:

3rd round: 29.19%

4th round: 20.30%

5th round: 14.42%

6th round: 8.84%

7th round: 6.40%