Draft record failure

Originally posted by Dshearn:

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by genus49:
I had this conversation on Twitter earlier.

I think there is valid concern there. For me I need Kyle to learn from his mistakes and maybe be willing to listen to others more than he has.

Hitting on Brock is crazy luck and by all accounts the pick was pushed for by Griese and one of our front office assistants. And that seems to be a trend for the late round guys, they seem to be more assistant led picks.

Well one thing we've seen is if Kyle has a guy HE really likes or wants it doesn't matter where the rankings are, where the consensus for those guys is board wise…we go and get them.

That's why I want Kyle to be right on his guys because those are the guys who we fight to draft. So having them work out is important.

We remember CJ Beathard? We moved up into the 3rd to get him just so Kyle could feel good about it that night. Joe Williams? Off the board but Kyle wanted him. We moved up into the 4th to get him.

While it's great to hit on late round guys it's always a risk to get those since the further down you go the more chances are another team grabs them. That goes even more for QB position.

I hope Kyle is here for a long time and eventually when Brock retires we'll have to hit on another QB. Kyle has to be right on in his evaluation for that one. Can't have another Lance or Beathard situation.

I'm with you - I think kyle has a ton of influence on who we draft in the first three rounds and we've missed quite a bit. Then we seem to hit on our 4-7th round and UDFA much more. The fact that we've missed as much as we have in the first three rounds is strange and I think it's cause kyle falls in love with certain players and it's almost always a mistake. The only good news is that when we do hit in the first 2 rounds, It's usually an awesome player. but when we miss, its horrific and they don't even play.

2017: Soloman Thomas (can't believe we took him), reuban Foster, Witherspoon, Cj Beathard, Joe Williams - this is the first Three rounds.

2018: McGlinchey (not bad but I don't think he played like you'd expect from a top 10 pick)
Dante Pettis...

2019: Bosa (a braindead monkey would of picked Bosa), Deebo Samuel (amazing), Jalen Hurd

2020: Kinlaw (awful), Aiyuk (amazing)

2021: Trey Lance (Awful), Aaron Banks (look to be a really good pick), Trey Sermon (awful)

First Round: Hit 3/9 picks (Bosa, Aiyuk, McG - Mcg was servicable atleast)

Second Round: We've only had 4 second round picks - 2/3 (I'm not counting the fourth one, Drake, because we don't know yet. Deebo, Aaron Banks - missed on pettis)

Third Round: 1/10 - Fred Warner is our only hit so far.

Total 1-3 Round Picks: 6/22 - We've had 22 selections in the first three rounds and have hit on 6 (Bosa, Aiyuk, McG, Deebo, Aaron Banks, Fred Warner)
We are hitting 27% of the time in the first three rounds (not including the most recent draft)

Check this out

no claim this is 100% correct, I sure as heck am not about to do the leg work to prove it right or wrong

Long term Draft Breakdown (NFL)

"The data shows that it becomes much, much more unlikely to find an elite player in round 2 than anywhere in round 1 – only 5.3% of players at any position selected in round 2 went on to make even one First Team All Pro team, as compared to 22% for picks 1 – 10, 18% for picks 11 – 20, and 13.% for picks 21 – 32. Only 17.9% of 2nd round picks made even one Pro Bowl, as compared to 51%, 40.5%, and 29.2% for picks 1 – 10, 11 – 20, and 21 – 32, respectively. But it's the "bust rate" in which round 2 picks really fall off the cliff: 34.4% only started 1+ seasons."As an executive summary, if you take nothing else from this column pay attention to the total percentages of starters unearthed in each round:

3rd round: 29.19%

4th round: 20.30%

5th round: 14.42%

6th round: 8.84%

7th round: 6.40%

Here's the kicker on that study.

it is incredibly difficult to find a franchise quarterback. The fact that not one single quarterback of 34 drafted (3 more than any other position group and a more than 1 standard deviation above the median point) in the top 10 over the last 20 years has multiple First Team All Pro selections, and only 3 have even one, is absolutely shocking. That's more than a full standard deviation below the mean as measured by percentage drafted.

So, between the '86 49ers draft and the '79 49ers draft, I think the '79 49ers draft was the best in franchise history. I"m hoping the 2022 49ers draft tops that. We shall see!

Originally posted by Giedi:
Here's the kicker on that study.

it is incredibly difficult to find a franchise quarterback. The fact that not one single quarterback of 34 drafted (3 more than any other position group and a more than 1 standard deviation above the median point) in the top 10 over the last 20 years has multiple First Team All Pro selections, and only 3 have even one, is absolutely shocking. That's more than a full standard deviation below the mean as measured by percentage drafted.

So, between the '86 49ers draft and the '79 49ers draft, I think the '79 49ers draft was the best in franchise history. I"m hoping the 2022 49ers draft tops that. We shall see!

Arr you drunk?

I suspect that if you looked at every team the results would be similar. If one team was a lot better than every other team, they would be winning all the time. The Patriots had terrible drafts especially on offense. They couldn't draft receivers or RBs to save their soul but they still won. Free agency can make up for a lot of draft mistakes but it usually costs a lot more to do it that way.

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by Giedi:
Here's the kicker on that study.

it is incredibly difficult to find a franchise quarterback. The fact that not one single quarterback of 34 drafted (3 more than any other position group and a more than 1 standard deviation above the median point) in the top 10 over the last 20 years has multiple First Team All Pro selections, and only 3 have even one, is absolutely shocking. That's more than a full standard deviation below the mean as measured by percentage drafted.

So, between the '86 49ers draft and the '79 49ers draft, I think the '79 49ers draft was the best in franchise history. I"m hoping the 2022 49ers draft tops that. We shall see!

Arr you drunk?

Nope. Considering its so hard to find a franchise QB in the draft.

Every team has failures but you can clearly see the depth of this roster has been depleted. A lot of wasted draft picks for Trey. And just a crazy amount of wasted 3rd round selections that just aren't producing. Could've used those picks to fortify the depth. Especially with the o line, CB, and DE positions. Missing on these early round guys is definitely an issue. Sooner or later it will show up on the field. Hopefully they can get 6 before it does. And somebody should have been suspended for a day without pay for drafting a dam fg kicker in the 3rd.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
I suspect that if you looked at every team the results would be similar. If one team was a lot better than every other team, they would be winning all the time. The Patriots had terrible drafts especially on offense. They couldn't draft receivers or RBs to save their soul but they still won. Free agency can make up for a lot of draft mistakes but it usually costs a lot more to do it that way.

The free agency aspect can be almost as a shot in the dark as the draft. Like for example, a 2nd and a 4th for Steve Young. Tampa got ripped off, in a sense by that trade. But agree, free agency can make up for draft mistakes, for sure. As you said you sacrifice cap space for that dimension of it. I think, again just my opinion, we lost valuable draft capital with Trey's trade to Dallas because I can see him be a top flight QB after some development time. But that can be remedied by such trades as the CMC trade, which was a trade from a collapsing bottom feeding team. CMC was basically a firesale. Now he's priceless in Kyle's offense.

Originally posted by lamontb:
Every team has failures but you can clearly see the depth of this roster has been depleted. A lot of wasted draft picks for Trey. And just a crazy amount of wasted 3rd round selections that just aren't producing. Could've used those picks to fortify the depth. Especially with the o line, CB, and DE positions. Missing on these early round guys is definitely an issue. Sooner or later it will show up on the field. Hopefully they can get 6 before it does. And somebody should have been suspended for a day without pay for drafting a dam fg kicker in the 3rd.

I don't think you can blame the draft for depth issues. I don't think we have major depth issues either. Sure there are some spots that could be better but every team is like that.

You also have to consider we have transitioned from a team that lacked a lot of talent to a team that has a lot of talent and are now paying the star players huge contracts. When a team has 5+ players in the top 100 and all of them have big contracts, your depth will take a hit bc you just dont have money to pay some guys.

Originally posted by mattster03:
McGlinchy was not a big miss. We have gotten quite a few years out of him as a starter and he has been a good run blocker

we all wanted fitzpatrick or james. and those 2 turned into perennial all pros, while all we got was a an average ol

BIG MISS

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by Giedi:
Here's the kicker on that study.

it is incredibly difficult to find a franchise quarterback. The fact that not one single quarterback of 34 drafted (3 more than any other position group and a more than 1 standard deviation above the median point) in the top 10 over the last 20 years has multiple First Team All Pro selections, and only 3 have even one, is absolutely shocking. That's more than a full standard deviation below the mean as measured by percentage drafted.

So, between the '86 49ers draft and the '79 49ers draft, I think the '79 49ers draft was the best in franchise history. I"m hoping the 2022 49ers draft tops that. We shall see!

Arr you drunk?

Nope. Considering its so hard to find a franchise QB in the draft.

You notice historically, franchises that had dynasties largely had two things - a franchise QB and then a draft or two during that QB realm where they absolutely nailed it. It's rare, but possible. I think this front office can do it, but yeah man they really miss on the top and higher picks compared to the rest of their drafts.

Lynch really needs to stop drafting day 1 and 2 picks. He's said this before that he is responsible for those first 2 days picks.

Kyle didn't want Lance, he wanted Wilson or Mac Jones, but when Saleh took Wilson Lynch made the call to Lance because Jones was a mid to late 1st.

Lynch drafted Kinlaw after not being able to negotiate a DBuck extension.

He drafted Solly Thomas because he was a classmate from Stanford.

He drafted Rueben Foster because he liked his personality despite all the red flags from the combine, his shoulder, to the off field issues.

He has hit on Bosa and Aiyuk though.

Our scouts add Peters saved our later rounds. It's time to let them take over the entire draft process.

Why do some people keep insisting that Kyle wanted Mac Jones? Nobody but Kyle and maybe Lynch knows the real truth. As far as losing the other 2 first rounders, there's no way of knowing who the 49ers would have picked. That trade set in motion other trades so we don't know for sure who would have been there when they picked or who they would have on their board. What we know for sure is the trade turned out to be a mistake. It was a pick that was worth the risk but his injuries derailed any plans they had for him. In the end. I think they gave up too quickly. He had fewer NFL appearances than any top 5 pick in history.

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
Why do some people keep insisting that Kyle wanted Mac Jones? Nobody but Kyle and maybe Lynch knows the real truth. As far as losing the other 2 first rounders, there's no way of knowing who the 49ers would have picked. That trade set in motion other trades so we don't know for sure who would have been there when they picked or who they would have on their board. What we know for sure is the trade turned out to be a mistake. It was a pick that was worth the risk but his injuries derailed any plans they had for him. In the end. I think they gave up too quickly. He had fewer NFL appearances than any top 5 pick in history.

His buddy Sims and a few others said he wanted Mac. Most zoners wanted Mac at our original draft spot.

Originally posted by PRIMETIME21:
Only thing that gets me is we could have had Micah parsons instead of Trey lance… like we might be hoisting one already by that move Alone

There is zero chance Micah Parsons was on our draft board. We werent looking for more linebackers and Dallas lucked into him being an edge rusher.

Originally posted by Cisco0623:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:

Originally posted by Giedi:
Here's the kicker on that study.

it is incredibly difficult to find a franchise quarterback. The fact that not one single quarterback of 34 drafted (3 more than any other position group and a more than 1 standard deviation above the median point) in the top 10 over the last 20 years has multiple First Team All Pro selections, and only 3 have even one, is absolutely shocking. That's more than a full standard deviation below the mean as measured by percentage drafted.

So, between the '86 49ers draft and the '79 49ers draft, I think the '79 49ers draft was the best in franchise history. I"m hoping the 2022 49ers draft tops that. We shall see!

Arr you drunk?

Nope. Considering its so hard to find a franchise QB in the draft.

You notice historically, franchises that had dynasties largely had two things - a franchise QB and then a draft or two during that QB realm where they absolutely nailed it. It's rare, but possible. I think this front office can do it, but yeah man they really miss on the top and higher picks compared to the rest of their drafts.

To a certain extent you and I are in agreement. Where I differ from you is that all important edge rusher. To have a perennial playoff team you need that Franchise QB, but in addition you also need a franchise defensive end (Fred Dean, Charles Haley, Aldon Smith, NIck Bosa). Those two will net you a team that will get you into the playoffs year in and year out. After that, you need a head coach that can take you to the next level (Walsh, Reid, Bellichick, Landry, Noll, Shula). When you have all three, your team is basically a dynasty level team at that point.

Originally posted by Eastcoast49er:
Let's go back to 2000. How many good 1 st round picks have we really gotten.

Alex Smith
Patrick Willis
Joe Staley
Aldon Smith
Veron Davis

To name a few.

LOL at having Alex Smith on this list.