49ERS at BROWNS Pregame Thread - 2023 Season Week 6

The 49ers have weaknesses the Browns should be excited about: Inside the Numbers

However, while Purdy is dominating zone coverage, his numbers look much more pedestrian against man coverage.
Against zone coverage:

• 78.3% completion percentage (1st among starting quarterbacks)
• 9.5 yards per attempt (2nd)
• 81.4% on-target percentage (5th)

Against man coverage:

• 55% completion percentage (16th)
• 7.8 yards per attempt (13th)
• 60.5% on-target percentage (24th)

This bodes well for a physical Browns, whose strength is playing suffocating man coverage in the secondary. The Browns, as they do in a multitude of statistical categories, rank first in completion percentage allowed (33.3%) and yards per play allowed (2.9) when playing man coverage.

However, there is one thing the 49ers have struggled to defend this season: runs up the middle. When opposing offenses have ran the ball up the middle, the 49ers defense has allowed:

• 4.4 yards per carry (26th among NFL defenses)
• 7.8% very positive run rate (22nd)
• 30.8% of runs pick up first down (25th)

Additionally, the 49ers have also struggled mightily against zone run-blocking schemes. Against zone runs, they have allowed:
4.1 yards per carry (24th)

• 12.1% very positive run rate (28th)
• 39.4% of runs pick up first down (32nd)

Runs up the middle and zone runs are the two greatest weaknesses of the 49ers run defense. Given this information, we can take this one step further by combining them both. On runs up the middle that are also zone runs, the 49ers have allowed:

• 6.5 yards per carry (32nd)
• 18.2% very positive run rate (29th)
• 63.6% of runs pick up first down (32nd)

The Browns rushing attack, which is a predominantly zone-blocking scheme under Kevin Stefanski, is excellent running up the middle as well:

• 4.8 yards per carry (4th)
• 30% very positive run rate (1st)
• 50% of runs pick up first down (2nd)

Reaching into the stats to hype themselves up lol.

KS is 1-8 against Jim Schwartz and Purdy can't beat press man. Oh noes!

Let them run up the middle if they think it's our kryptonite. I don't think that's a winning strategy even if they still had Chubb, and I respect the hell out of that guy.

Interesting take, though, especially considering the weather may lend itself to that type of game.

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by billbird2111:
Cleveland Browns media is DOWN and DEPRESSED. Part of that depression stems from the blowout loss the Browns took at the hands of the Ravens (28-3) and part of it stems from the upcoming schedule against the 49ers. Forget about hope. Forget about bravado. It's more of a "how do we not get murdered by the 49ers this weekend" type of attitude. Some things that I learned, and will include a link below.

1. Nobody really knows if DeShawn Watson is going to play or if he even can. Watson did get lots of treatment, reportedly, during the bye week. But get this: All of that treatment came from therapists in TEXAS. Which I found to be a little strange. Why isn't Watson, the starting QB for the Browns, getting treatment in Cleveland? The Browns, apparently, aren't worried about it. But some of the media pundits did show a smidgeon of concern. Such as, "why can't Watson get treatment in Cleveland?"
2. The run game. There isn't any. Or, at least there wasn't any semblance of a run game in the first contest without Nick Chubb. Baltimore shut it down. The Browns had no answer. The team generated close to 100-yards rushing against Baltimore, but that was a tad misleading. Half of that number came from one run in the 4th quarter of a game that was already over.
3. Major concerns with the LT, Jedrick Willis. He is apparently awful. Not just bad. But really, really bad. He's given up 18 pressures through the first four games, plus four QB hits and two sacks. There are suggestions that Watson doesn't trust him. Things are so bad at the moment that Cleveland is already looking for a replacement.
4. The 49er defense will face the NFL's 30th ranked offense. If Watson can't go, the team will turn to its third string QB, PJ Walker. The 49ers could also see rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. He threw three picks against Baltimore and was also sacked four times.

SOURCE: https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/longformarticle/cleveland-browns-morning-news-1010-deshaun-watson-san-francisco-forty-niners-217842525/#2265973 Look for the GameDay Rewind video on the right hand side of the screen for the updates I've detailed above.

Muhahahah just how I like it.

I know some want us to be more battle tested but I'd rather these mid season games be easier and less snaps. In the rams game, our defense played 60-80 snaps (depending on the player). In the cowboys game, the most our starters played was 30 or so snaps - that's a huge difference and great for their health.

if we can go in there and our starters play another 30 snaps or snaps, that's amazing and helps us down the stretch. Sure, it sucks for our individual stats but does a great job of keeping us healthy for the rough stretch at the end and keeps us fresh for the playoffs.

it's a marathon and not a sprint - nothing is easy in the nfl and if we can get lucky with some light games, I'll take it all day long. Let everyone else play 60-80 snaps on defense.

Ill add this isn't sone young on the come up team like Detroit. This team has seen wars for 4 years. They have had deep playoff runs for for years. This team is good and calloused due to those experiences. They also aren't content to be 5-0. They are after homefield advantage and the Super Bowl.

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by billbird2111:

Originally posted by Dr_Bill_Walsh:

Who are these idiots picking the 49ers to score less than 30 points? When they haven't all season? Or giving up three TD's? When, again, they haven't all season? Do these clowns even watch football games?

If the browns had a good offense, I'd understand, but their offense is awful. So even if they start the game solid on D (unlikely) - they'll break eventually.

browns have the 1 ranked D now ('not for long 😈). So I respect their defense - really good d line and corners. But they won't be able to deal with us cause their O will be turning the ball over and going 3 and out every time.

Thats the game I expect. The Browns will be around for a half, but after being given nothing they will tire out and the points will come. I'm seeing 31 - 10.

Originally posted by Overkill:
The 49ers have weaknesses the Browns should be excited about: Inside the Numbers

However, while Purdy is dominating zone coverage, his numbers look much more pedestrian against man coverage.
Against zone coverage:

• 78.3% completion percentage (1st among starting quarterbacks)
• 9.5 yards per attempt (2nd)
• 81.4% on-target percentage (5th)

Against man coverage:

• 55% completion percentage (16th)
• 7.8 yards per attempt (13th)
• 60.5% on-target percentage (24th)

This bodes well for a physical Browns, whose strength is playing suffocating man coverage in the secondary. The Browns, as they do in a multitude of statistical categories, rank first in completion percentage allowed (33.3%) and yards per play allowed (2.9) when playing man coverage.

However, there is one thing the 49ers have struggled to defend this season: runs up the middle. When opposing offenses have ran the ball up the middle, the 49ers defense has allowed:

• 4.4 yards per carry (26th among NFL defenses)
• 7.8% very positive run rate (22nd)
• 30.8% of runs pick up first down (25th)

Additionally, the 49ers have also struggled mightily against zone run-blocking schemes. Against zone runs, they have allowed:
4.1 yards per carry (24th)

• 12.1% very positive run rate (28th)
• 39.4% of runs pick up first down (32nd)

Runs up the middle and zone runs are the two greatest weaknesses of the 49ers run defense. Given this information, we can take this one step further by combining them both. On runs up the middle that are also zone runs, the 49ers have allowed:

• 6.5 yards per carry (32nd)
• 18.2% very positive run rate (29th)
• 63.6% of runs pick up first down (32nd)

The Browns rushing attack, which is a predominantly zone-blocking scheme under Kevin Stefanski, is excellent running up the middle as well:

• 4.8 yards per carry (4th)
• 30% very positive run rate (1st)
• 50% of runs pick up first down (2nd)

Reaching into the stats to hype themselves up lol.

KS is 1-8 against Jim Schwartz and Purdy can't beat press man. Oh noes!

Let them run up the middle if they think it's our kryptonite. I don't think that's a winning strategy even if they still had Chubb, and I respect the hell out of that guy.

Interesting take, though, especially considering the weather may lend itself to that type of game.

But a lot of those running stats came with chubb in. I don't know, we'll see

Wait doesn't the Steelers run the same defense as the Browns or similar with press man??

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by JTB1974:
I can see this being a low scoring game. The weather is suppose to be terrible and the Browns defense is legit. This is a Jake Moody game.

I agree, I think that's why the lines are so tight. The Browns defense is very legit.

They are. Issue is I can't see their offense holding up. We will get too many bites at the apple, either due to short fields, too many three and outs, controlling time of possession, etc. Need to hold them to 13 or less. If we do that, I can see us slowly working our way to 26 to 30 points.

Has CLE defense been successful against the run while playing man coverage? Because if they haven't, I don't see them using a whole lot of man coverage accept on maybe obvious passing downs.

Yeah max points I am giving CLE is 17..SF 28-35. Conservatively, 28 SF 14 CLE cause idk, rain, lol but let's drop another 30 🍔

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by Sickaa:

Originally posted by FredFlintstone:
What the hell is up with Gray? That dude tear every joint and muscle in his shoulder or what? What about Beal that pass rusher from UGA?

Do we know when he's expected to return?

idk if we will ever reactivate him this year, unless we run into WR Depth issues. We may save the players we can reactivate until later in the season to see what happens. I don't see him getting any reps anyways - Bell & Jennings are playing really well.

I'd love Gray to play but yeah, I don't see any room for him. The starters are locked. Jennings is a lock. Ray Ray is a lock and Bell has looked really good. If anything I'd hope he gets a shot when against defenses with poor pass coverage and/or are slow on the back end. But he's likely to be a healthy scratch most of the year.

24-13 niners. Would love to keep the 30 pt streak going, but have a feeling it comes to an end. That's ok as long as we win

Originally posted by frenchmov:

Originally posted by Overkill:
The 49ers have weaknesses the Browns should be excited about: Inside the Numbers

However, while Purdy is dominating zone coverage, his numbers look much more pedestrian against man coverage.
Against zone coverage:

• 78.3% completion percentage (1st among starting quarterbacks)
• 9.5 yards per attempt (2nd)
• 81.4% on-target percentage (5th)

Against man coverage:

• 55% completion percentage (16th)
• 7.8 yards per attempt (13th)
• 60.5% on-target percentage (24th)

This bodes well for a physical Browns, whose strength is playing suffocating man coverage in the secondary. The Browns, as they do in a multitude of statistical categories, rank first in completion percentage allowed (33.3%) and yards per play allowed (2.9) when playing man coverage.

However, there is one thing the 49ers have struggled to defend this season: runs up the middle. When opposing offenses have ran the ball up the middle, the 49ers defense has allowed:

• 4.4 yards per carry (26th among NFL defenses)
• 7.8% very positive run rate (22nd)
• 30.8% of runs pick up first down (25th)

Additionally, the 49ers have also struggled mightily against zone run-blocking schemes. Against zone runs, they have allowed:
4.1 yards per carry (24th)

• 12.1% very positive run rate (28th)
• 39.4% of runs pick up first down (32nd)

Runs up the middle and zone runs are the two greatest weaknesses of the 49ers run defense. Given this information, we can take this one step further by combining them both. On runs up the middle that are also zone runs, the 49ers have allowed:

• 6.5 yards per carry (32nd)
• 18.2% very positive run rate (29th)
• 63.6% of runs pick up first down (32nd)

The Browns rushing attack, which is a predominantly zone-blocking scheme under Kevin Stefanski, is excellent running up the middle as well:

• 4.8 yards per carry (4th)
• 30% very positive run rate (1st)
• 50% of runs pick up first down (2nd)

Reaching into the stats to hype themselves up lol.

KS is 1-8 against Jim Schwartz and Purdy can't beat press man. Oh noes!

Let them run up the middle if they think it's our kryptonite. I don't think that's a winning strategy even if they still had Chubb, and I respect the hell out of that guy.

Interesting take, though, especially considering the weather may lend itself to that type of game.

But a lot of those running stats came with chubb in. I don't know, we'll see

CLE man coverage stats are insanely good. This will be a good challenge for the 49er offense. That said, if the 49ers don't turn the ball over I think they'll be fine. CLE offense will need help from their defense (turnovers) to win this game.

Originally posted by Overkill:
The 49ers have weaknesses the Browns should be excited about: Inside the Numbers

However, while Purdy is dominating zone coverage, his numbers look much more pedestrian against man coverage.
Against zone coverage:

• 78.3% completion percentage (1st among starting quarterbacks)
• 9.5 yards per attempt (2nd)
• 81.4% on-target percentage (5th)

Against man coverage:

• 55% completion percentage (16th)
• 7.8 yards per attempt (13th)
• 60.5% on-target percentage (24th)

This bodes well for a physical Browns, whose strength is playing suffocating man coverage in the secondary. The Browns, as they do in a multitude of statistical categories, rank first in completion percentage allowed (33.3%) and yards per play allowed (2.9) when playing man coverage.

However, there is one thing the 49ers have struggled to defend this season: runs up the middle. When opposing offenses have ran the ball up the middle, the 49ers defense has allowed:

• 4.4 yards per carry (26th among NFL defenses)
• 7.8% very positive run rate (22nd)
• 30.8% of runs pick up first down (25th)

Additionally, the 49ers have also struggled mightily against zone run-blocking schemes. Against zone runs, they have allowed:
4.1 yards per carry (24th)

• 12.1% very positive run rate (28th)
• 39.4% of runs pick up first down (32nd)

Runs up the middle and zone runs are the two greatest weaknesses of the 49ers run defense. Given this information, we can take this one step further by combining them both. On runs up the middle that are also zone runs, the 49ers have allowed:

• 6.5 yards per carry (32nd)
• 18.2% very positive run rate (29th)
• 63.6% of runs pick up first down (32nd)

The Browns rushing attack, which is a predominantly zone-blocking scheme under Kevin Stefanski, is excellent running up the middle as well:

• 4.8 yards per carry (4th)
• 30% very positive run rate (1st)
• 50% of runs pick up first down (2nd)

Reaching into the stats to hype themselves up lol.

KS is 1-8 against Jim Schwartz and Purdy can't beat press man. Oh noes!

Let them run up the middle if they think it's our kryptonite. I don't think that's a winning strategy even if they still had Chubb, and I respect the hell out of that guy.

Interesting take, though, especially considering the weather may lend itself to that type of game.

Agree with those bad matchups. One reason I don't like the Wide 9 vs the run is because the wide DT's splits. Those DT's basically are two-gapping and have to hold their ground vs double teams on both sides in the run game. Great for stopping outside zone runs - DE's in the Wide 9 sets the edges, but those inside runs are murder on the DT's and the inside LB's.

Add in the weather, some careless turnovers because of a wet ball, and Browns keeping it a close game, and it can turn bad if the 49ers let their guard down.

What should get Browns off man coverage is CMC/Mason gashing them on the run game. Hopefully that forces Browns to go zone coverage and/or read and react vs Man and gap penetrating - the way Jim Shorts likes to do his regular typical defenses.

Originally posted by Kolohe:
Wait doesn't the Steelers run the same defense as the Browns or similar with press man??

yeah and I thought that the cowboys (before they played us) ran the most man coverage cover 1 in the league - they changed that some against us and now the browns have the league lead but it's close.

has anyone confirmed those stats cause this is the first time I'm seeing anything negative against man coverage. lol his stats have been amazing this season regardless of the coverage - so I'm surprised. I feel like those stats are bunk.

Originally posted by Giedi:
Agree with those bad matchups. One reason I don't like the Wide 9 vs the run is because the wide DT's splits. Those DT's basically are two-gapping and have to hold their ground vs double teams on both sides in the run game. Great for stopping outside zone runs - DE's in the Wide 9 sets the edges, but those inside runs are murder on the DT's and the inside LB's.

Add in the weather, some careless turnovers because of a wet ball, and Browns keeping it a close game, and it can turn bad if the 49ers let their guard down.

What should get Browns off man coverage is CMC/Mason gashing them on the run game. Hopefully that forces Browns to go zone coverage and/or read and react vs Man and gap penetrating - the way Jim Shorts likes to do his regular typical defenses.

Browns defense playing man behind stopping CMC, that's just disrespectful on Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle, or any others running routes. Brock gonna make them pay with his accuracy.

Are we going to witness a Niner Faithful takeover of the Dawg Pound?