🏆 SUPER BOWL LVIII PREGAME THREAD - SF 49ERS vs KC CHIEFS 🏆

Originally posted by Niners99:

Originally posted by tankle104:

This British man watched AFC and NFC championship games and here were his observations. He nailed it in my opinion. pic.twitter.com/XqJVnxLyQC

— Geoff Abbott (@VisionaryDigMar) January 31, 2024

Agree on the kickoff

The penalties costing the offense a down would kill scoring, which the NFL would NEVER do.

They can chip the balls and track them, but unless they're chipping body parts, there will still be the element of the human eye to determine when the player was down.

Some announcers actually provide good info, like Romo, but unfortunately he us also annoying at the same time. For the most part hes right, the announcers are lame. Id MUCH prefer to hear Papa and Tim Ryan's radio broadcast synced with the TV.

I don't think Romo does anything other than sound like a kid who forgot to take his Ritalin and say the word "Jim" like 47x a quarter. Totally agreed on the sync thing I've never been able to figure that out.

Not very confident, just based on the way we looked for 5 of the 8 quarters we played in our 2 playoff games. KC isn't going to let us come back if we start crappy.

My biggest concern is Wilks. I have no confidence in his game plan. I feel like he constantly comes up with crap strategies that Warner basically has to adjust from to right the ship.

Originally posted by Niners99:
Not very confident, just based on the way we looked for 5 of the 8 quarters we played in our 2 playoff games. KC isn't going to let us come back if we start crappy.

My biggest concern is Wilks. I have no confidence in his game plan. I feel like he constantly comes up with crap strategies that Warner basically has to adjust from to right the ship.

Then I guess we should just not watch the Super Bowl then.

Good job everyone. Let's go home.

Originally posted by Dirtydonedirtcheap69:
I don't think Romo does anything other than sound like a kid who forgot to take his Ritalin and say the word "Jim" like 47x a quarter. Totally agreed on the sync thing I've never been able to figure that out.

Pretty sure they make that impossible on purpose, so people can't bypass the telecast. You would need an online radio service that allows you to pause the feed and then start it 7-8 seconds later from that same spot.

Originally posted by JTsBiggestFan:
I think Armstead should put out on the edge on early downs, inside only on obvious passing downs.

I'm guessing Kinlaw would be inside a lot if so?

Yes and overall Kin has been playing better.

Originally posted by Niners99:
Not very confident, just based on the way we looked for 5 of the 8 quarters we played in our 2 playoff games. KC isn't going to let us come back if we start crappy.

My biggest concern is Wilks. I have no confidence in his game plan. I feel like he constantly comes up with crap strategies that Warner basically has to adjust from to right the ship.

You watch KC? They have been far from dominant in the playoffs.

I think Wilks has been damn good about second half adjustments

Originally posted by VaBeachNiner:

Originally posted by Niners99:
Not very confident, just based on the way we looked for 5 of the 8 quarters we played in our 2 playoff games. KC isn't going to let us come back if we start crappy.

My biggest concern is Wilks. I have no confidence in his game plan. I feel like he constantly comes up with crap strategies that Warner basically has to adjust from to right the ship.

Then I guess we should just not watch the Super Bowl then.

Good job everyone. Let's go home.

I have optimism with certain parts too, like CMC against that KC run D. I just have no basis of leaning towards the positive, considering our track record in big games. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me SEVEN times, shame on me. This is our 8th NFC championship game since 1997, and were 0-7 winning the SB. Hopefully this is the year.

So I have a logistic regression model that I've been working on for two years, it's ~72% correct and I don't use s**t like wins or turnovers, it's cause and effect based on the ability to move the ball and prevent your opponent from doing the same. It's all weighted by strength of schedule and qb efficiency. If I run it with the full season of data (stripping week 17) we are ~63% likely to win. If I use everything since week 11 (except 17) which appears more predictive, that moves down to 56%. The bottom line is that it's going to be close and the point spread is f'ing perfect. To me it's a coin toss but we should be able to pull it out. Niners by 3.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by Niners99:
Not very confident, just based on the way we looked for 5 of the 8 quarters we played in our 2 playoff games. KC isn't going to let us come back if we start crappy.

My biggest concern is Wilks. I have no confidence in his game plan. I feel like he constantly comes up with crap strategies that Warner basically has to adjust from to right the ship.

You watch KC? They have been far from dominant in the playoffs.

I think Wilks has been damn good about second half adjustments

KC definitely isn't as good this year, but its still Mahomes. He always pulls something out of his butt. Almost like Russell Wilson with Seattle. Wilks cant afford another bad start. GB and DET were young and inexperienced. KC knows how to close.

Originally posted by Dirtydonedirtcheap69:
So I have a logistic regression model that I've been working on for two years, it's ~72% correct and I don't use s**t like wins or turnovers, it's cause and effect based on the ability to move the ball and prevent your opponent from doing the same. It's all weighted by strength of schedule and qb efficiency. If I run it with the full season of data (stripping week 17) we are ~63% likely to win. If I use everything since week 11 (except 17) which appears more predictive, that moves down to 56%. The bottom line is that it's going to be close and the point spread is f'ing perfect. To me it's a coin toss but we should be able to pull it out. Niners by 3.

Are you a data scientist?

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by JTsBiggestFan:
I think Armstead should put out on the edge on early downs, inside only on obvious passing downs.

I'm guessing Kinlaw would be inside a lot if so?

Yes and overall Kin has been playing better.

For once we agree, he's looked quite lively imo. Dude is motivated.

Originally posted by Dirtydonedirtcheap69:
So I have a logistic regression model that I've been working on for two years, it's ~72% correct and I don't use s**t like wins or turnovers, it's cause and effect based on the ability to move the ball and prevent your opponent from doing the same. It's all weighted by strength of schedule and qb efficiency. If I run it with the full season of data (stripping week 17) we are ~63% likely to win. If I use everything since week 11 (except 17) which appears more predictive, that moves down to 56%. The bottom line is that it's going to be close and the point spread is f'ing perfect. To me it's a coin toss but we should be able to pull it out. Niners by 3.

That doesn't take scheme into consideration though. Its all about how you match up with a specific team, not what you did against other opponents in recent memory.

Originally posted by Young2Owens:

Originally posted by Dirtydonedirtcheap69:
So I have a logistic regression model that I've been working on for two years, it's ~72% correct and I don't use s**t like wins or turnovers, it's cause and effect based on the ability to move the ball and prevent your opponent from doing the same. It's all weighted by strength of schedule and qb efficiency. If I run it with the full season of data (stripping week 17) we are ~63% likely to win. If I use everything since week 11 (except 17) which appears more predictive, that moves down to 56%. The bottom line is that it's going to be close and the point spread is f'ing perfect. To me it's a coin toss but we should be able to pull it out. Niners by 3.

Are you a data scientist?

I'm a data engineering and analytics consultant. I won't claim data scientist but predictive is not that complicated.

Originally posted by Niners99:

Originally posted by VaBeachNiner:

Originally posted by Niners99:
Not very confident, just based on the way we looked for 5 of the 8 quarters we played in our 2 playoff games. KC isn't going to let us come back if we start crappy.

My biggest concern is Wilks. I have no confidence in his game plan. I feel like he constantly comes up with crap strategies that Warner basically has to adjust from to right the ship.

Then I guess we should just not watch the Super Bowl then.

Good job everyone. Let's go home.

I have optimism with certain parts too, like CMC against that KC run D. I just have no basis of leaning towards the positive, considering our track record in big games. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me SEVEN times, shame on me. This is our 8th NFC championship game since 1997, and were 0-7 winning the SB. Hopefully this is the year.

I'm optimistic we'll win, but I feel the same overall. I had very cautious optimism about the Lions game the entire 4'th quarter (even up by 10) until the final kneel down because of how many times this team has pulled defeat from the jaws of victory over the past 12 seasons. Once they won I went ape s**t though

Originally posted by Niners99:

Originally posted by Dirtydonedirtcheap69:
So I have a logistic regression model that I've been working on for two years, it's ~72% correct and I don't use s**t like wins or turnovers, it's cause and effect based on the ability to move the ball and prevent your opponent from doing the same. It's all weighted by strength of schedule and qb efficiency. If I run it with the full season of data (stripping week 17) we are ~63% likely to win. If I use everything since week 11 (except 17) which appears more predictive, that moves down to 56%. The bottom line is that it's going to be close and the point spread is f'ing perfect. To me it's a coin toss but we should be able to pull it out. Niners by 3.

That doesn't take scheme into consideration though. Its all about how you match up with a specific team, not what you did against other opponents in recent memory.

Looking forward to seeing your analysis