🏆 SUPER BOWL LVIII PREGAME THREAD - SF 49ERS vs KC CHIEFS 🏆

I always love Steve young's analysis. He makes a great a point that most likely the game will be defensive and not a shootout, but if it was the Niners offense is technically the one far more capable of doing it. But yes our defense must step up etc.

Originally posted by Dirtydonedirtcheap69:

Originally posted by Niners99:

Originally posted by Dirtydonedirtcheap69:
So I have a logistic regression model that I've been working on for two years, it's ~72% correct and I don't use s**t like wins or turnovers, it's cause and effect based on the ability to move the ball and prevent your opponent from doing the same. It's all weighted by strength of schedule and qb efficiency. If I run it with the full season of data (stripping week 17) we are ~63% likely to win. If I use everything since week 11 (except 17) which appears more predictive, that moves down to 56%. The bottom line is that it's going to be close and the point spread is f'ing perfect. To me it's a coin toss but we should be able to pull it out. Niners by 3.

That doesn't take scheme into consideration though. Its all about how you match up with a specific team, not what you did against other opponents in recent memory.

Looking forward to seeing your analysis

analysis: 49ers -2

Originally posted by Dirtydonedirtcheap69:

Originally posted by Young2Owens:

Originally posted by Dirtydonedirtcheap69:
So I have a logistic regression model that I've been working on for two years, it's ~72% correct and I don't use s**t like wins or turnovers, it's cause and effect based on the ability to move the ball and prevent your opponent from doing the same. It's all weighted by strength of schedule and qb efficiency. If I run it with the full season of data (stripping week 17) we are ~63% likely to win. If I use everything since week 11 (except 17) which appears more predictive, that moves down to 56%. The bottom line is that it's going to be close and the point spread is f'ing perfect. To me it's a coin toss but we should be able to pull it out. Niners by 3.

Are you a data scientist?

I'm a data engineering and analytics consultant. I won't claim data scientist but predictive is not that complicated.

Oh cool I'm a software engineer myself

Originally posted by Young2Owens:

Originally posted by Dirtydonedirtcheap69:

Originally posted by Young2Owens:

Originally posted by Dirtydonedirtcheap69:
So I have a logistic regression model that I've been working on for two years, it's ~72% correct and I don't use s**t like wins or turnovers, it's cause and effect based on the ability to move the ball and prevent your opponent from doing the same. It's all weighted by strength of schedule and qb efficiency. If I run it with the full season of data (stripping week 17) we are ~63% likely to win. If I use everything since week 11 (except 17) which appears more predictive, that moves down to 56%. The bottom line is that it's going to be close and the point spread is f'ing perfect. To me it's a coin toss but we should be able to pull it out. Niners by 3.

Are you a data scientist?

I'm a data engineering and analytics consultant. I won't claim data scientist but predictive is not that complicated.

Oh cool I'm a software engineer myself

👍🏼😎

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Clay has SF winning based on his projections

[tweet

Early Super Bowl LVIII Boxscore Projection - Chiefs vs. 49ers pic.twitter.com/6pZXVubD1A

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) February 1, 2024

So is this guy someone who is good at predicting things? interesting set of data. is a gambler?

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Clay has SF winning based on his projections

[tweet

Early Super Bowl LVIII Boxscore Projection - Chiefs vs. 49ers pic.twitter.com/6pZXVubD1A

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) February 1, 2024

So is this guy someone who is good at predicting things? interesting set of data. is a gambler?

Looks like he's run the seasons data through a model that effectively compares the two teams and projects what everyone will do. Very similar to the gal on NFL network with the slinky outfits and with every score basically predicted to be the same. No real hypothesis just data in/data out.

Originally posted by Niners99:

Originally posted by VaBeachNiner:

Originally posted by Niners99:
Not very confident, just based on the way we looked for 5 of the 8 quarters we played in our 2 playoff games. KC isn't going to let us come back if we start crappy.

My biggest concern is Wilks. I have no confidence in his game plan. I feel like he constantly comes up with crap strategies that Warner basically has to adjust from to right the ship.

Then I guess we should just not watch the Super Bowl then.

Good job everyone. Let's go home.

I have optimism with certain parts too, like CMC against that KC run D. I just have no basis of leaning towards the positive, considering our track record in big games. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me SEVEN times, shame on me. This is our 8th NFC championship game since 1997, and were 0-7 winning the SB. Hopefully this is the year.

Yeah... I want to be as optimistic as the next fan, but some of you older 49ers fans have to realize we 30 something old fans have only known disappointment our whole lives when it comes to this team.

.

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Clay has SF winning based on his projections

[tweet

Early Super Bowl LVIII Boxscore Projection - Chiefs vs. 49ers pic.twitter.com/6pZXVubD1A

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) February 1, 2024

So is this guy someone who is good at predicting things? interesting set of data. is a gambler?

He is an ESPN writer. Specialty is Fantasy football and stat models or predicting player stats to rank players on a weekly basis.

Originally posted by Niners99:
Not very confident, just based on the way we looked for 5 of the 8 quarters we played in our 2 playoff games. KC isn't going to let us come back if we start crappy.

My biggest concern is Wilks. I have no confidence in his game plan. I feel like he constantly comes up with crap strategies that Warner basically has to adjust from to right the ship.

I'm going to spam this gif to combat any doubt. 49ers are a good team, don't underestimate them.

So the Green Bay Packers have a offensive line rated #6 in the league, The Lions line is #2 and now we are facing The Chiefs with the #4 rated offensive line. Purdy on the other hand has done everything this year behind a offensive line rated #17. Let that sink in, he has put up amazing stats with a line that really only has one true stud, Trent Williams. Just imagine for a moment what this team would look like with a top 10 rated offensive line. Every time I hear that Purdy is not him, or he is a game manager, I just want to bristle. All the talking heads want to tell you that BP has so many fantastic offensive players around him, but not one of them ever points out the difficulties he has worked around.

Of all the negative stuff in this forum and in the media, interestingly enough the Niners moved to a full -2.5 spread. We went from -1, to -1.5, to -2.5 now. I expect it to hold there for a while, but bettors are putting their money on us right now.

I know it doesn't mean a damn thing, but money is real so people believe in us.

Originally posted by Dirtydonedirtcheap69:

Originally posted by Niners99:

Originally posted by Dirtydonedirtcheap69:
So I have a logistic regression model that I've been working on for two years, it's ~72% correct and I don't use s**t like wins or turnovers, it's cause and effect based on the ability to move the ball and prevent your opponent from doing the same. It's all weighted by strength of schedule and qb efficiency. If I run it with the full season of data (stripping week 17) we are ~63% likely to win. If I use everything since week 11 (except 17) which appears more predictive, that moves down to 56%. The bottom line is that it's going to be close and the point spread is f'ing perfect. To me it's a coin toss but we should be able to pull it out. Niners by 3.

That doesn't take scheme into consideration though. Its all about how you match up with a specific team, not what you did against other opponents in recent memory.

Looking forward to seeing your analysis

Im not going to claim I have a better answer, I just think each game is its own thing. This 2023 49ers roster hasn't played this 2023 Chiefs roster. We don't know how the schemes match up, or how everyone will respond to an extremely unique pressure situation. Based on 2019, id say its safe to say Bosa and Deebo will show up big time.

I hope Shanahan designs the entire game plan around CMC. Let the best RB in the league attack a mediocre run D and wear them down. Let it open up the passing game.

Thankfully our mediocre run D is facing a Chiefs team that doesn't really have a strong run game.

Can the Niners please have a dominant game? Last one we had was against the cardinals.

Originally posted by Niners99:
KC definitely isn't as good this year, but its still Mahomes. He always pulls something out of his butt. Almost like Russell Wilson with Seattle. Wilks cant afford another bad start. GB and DET were young and inexperienced. KC knows how to close.

Couldn't pull anything out of his butt vs TB in the SB. SF is the opposite of inexperienced.

they've put up 30+ pts 3 times this yr. Mahomes is Mahomes BUT they're here because of that defense imo.

I think SF matches up well vs KC. I wanted them over the Ravens

Originally posted by Alfienator:
Can the Niners please have a dominant game? Last one we had was against the cardinals.

No. Torture is the theme for us 49er fans this postseason. Be sure to stretch out your glutes pregame, it's going to be a butt clencher.