Originally posted by KowboyKiller:
What's up BigT, we like it when opposing fans come here and chat it up. At first I was one of the chest beaters, thinking that the Ravens choked, that the Bills were injured and choked, but digging into what the Chiefs are doing on defense has changed my tune quite a bit. What they've been doing to teams in the 2nd half of games is crazy. The niners are going to need to start hot in this game and keep that intensity throughout, if they stutter out the gate like they have the past two games they're going to have a bad time. On paper our outside zone runs with CMC is a massive advantage against the Chiefs D who struggle with those, but Miami couldn't pull it off with Mostert and the Ravens didn't stick with the run game at all when it wasn't working early. That's the matchup I'm looking forward to the most. Purdy and this passing O has the highest efficiency in the league and one of the best ever, but that's a strength on strength matchup and we will need to pound it early and often to have success with that. Shanahan likes to get cute sometimes though, thinking he's outsmarting the other coach by doing what they won't expect and it backfires when he starts throwing all the time when he should be running it. I hope he knows this is not the game to try that.
We're also praying that Steve Wilks doesn't just run a bunch of vanilla shell zones to give Mahomes all the time he needs to find Kelce or Rice while Bosa is being basically tackled to the ground all game. We don't run a lot of man defense but we did last week in the 2nd half comeback and will have to against Mahomes. After losing our all pro safety Hufanga and DE Ferrell our run defense has been pretty bad, Chase Young has been getting a lot of heat due to an inability to set the edge so you'll be seeing a lot of runs in his direction. However they do tighten up in the 2nd half and in the red zone (usually). I'm really worried about the Chiefs running screen after screen because that is something this defense has trouble with sometimes.
If the Chiefs win this game it will have been the most difficult playoff run ever per DVOA. What are your thoughts on why the Chiefs are playing at such a high level after the somewhat down season they had?
Honestly it has me scratching my head. The only thing I can say is Mahomes is a freaking gamer. He got the snot kicked out of him Sunday and loved every minute of it. To those that think the Ravens held us scoreless in the second half they are right, but we didn't need to score. One of the biggest changes I see in Mahomes is his patience and disengagement with passing stats. The last year with Hill teams had them figured out. Play two deep safety and mitigate the long pass. He would try to force his will and get frustrated. He will now play the screen/ short pass game and is satisfied. He realizes that 5k passing yards means nothing if you don't win it all ( ie Moon, Marino, Rivers and others) he has basically turned Into a mobile Brady. It also helps when you have one a couple and they play the underdog role well.
You are right the swing pass outside run is the way to get to this defense. Don't get down on Shanahan, Reid outsmarts himself frequently. Gets away from what is working and outsmarts himself.
Pacheco is a wrecking ball. The team feds off his energy. If he has good success it will be demoralizing and could turn the game. He is running right up the middle and runs like he is mad at the ground.
