Originally posted by KowboyKiller:
I thought this was a really good analysis from an experienced handicapper. His perspective on picking the niners to win is that he believes the defense's drop in performance is less likely to continue for a 3rd game in a row than the Chiefs maintaining their offense's improvement during the playoffs when looking at all the factors involved, which he does.
This is a great video though admittedly I know nothing of this guy's track record. I genuinely hope he's right about "the Niners defensive coaching staff couldn't possibly be so stupid as to continue with the Wide 9 and play soft zone in the secondary."
But I think his best point was that the Chiefs played a terrible playoff team to start, the Dolphins. Then they played an overrated and decimated Bills team who didn't have much in the way of skill players. The Ravens' offense committed coaching malpractice in the AFC Championship while the Chiefs offense really only played a good quarter and a half. The added value that people are assigning the Chiefs may not be "real."
With the way the Packers handled the Cowboys, there's a possibility that they were just really good by the end of the season. Particularly when we're talking about a young team like that, they were healthy and they weren't the same team that started the season. It should also be noted that the Chiefs couldn't beat them this year.
As for the Lions, I feel pretty strongly that they have the best set of RBs, TE and WRs in the league outside of the Niners. Additionally, they were also young and healthy. Both the Packers and Lions also have excellent o-lines, far better than the Chiefs. In hindsight, the Lions in particular represented a bad matchup. Great against the run, effective on offense in all phases, though Goff was a weakness. The Lions also beat the Chiefs.
I think we're going to see a reversion to the 2019 playoff offense. Accordingly, I think we're going to see a lot of Charlie Woerner (an underrated blocking TE) and very few three WR sets.
The offense will get their points, but I worry about the defense getting some stops and adjusting.