🏆 SUPER BOWL LVIII PREGAME THREAD - SF 49ERS vs KC CHIEFS 🏆

Originally posted by eastie:

Originally posted by okdkid:
Vegas refuses to move the line. Providing incentive for people to put money on KC.

Now why would they want more money on the Chiefs? Hmmmm

Because the game being on the west coast has more Niner money coming in. The objective for a casino is to win money. They don't give a crap about who's who. Just get enough money bet on BOTH TEAMS THAT HOWEVER THE GAME TURNS OUT, THEY WIN.

I don't think most people understand how Vegas makes money.

if a game is 50/50 odds Vegas sets it up like this.

bet on team A $10 wins $9
Bet on team B $10 wins $9

if team A wins, Vegas gets $10 from bet B and pays bet A $9 dollars. They guarantee 10% profit per bet and want lots of bets.

They don't gamble, the "juice" isn't 10% but yall get the point.

Originally posted by Shorteous:

Originally posted by NinerPride365:

Originally posted by okdkid:
Vegas refuses to move the line. Providing incentive for people to put money on KC.

Now why would they want more money on the Chiefs? Hmmmm

Because they like to print money?

Because they have a large liability on the books for futures bets where 49ers picked 9ers to win Super Bowl at favorable odds. They are balancing it out, that and I've heard most of the sharp money has come in on 9ers which would be at larger dollar value than the majority of the small bets coming in on Chiefs. Their goal is to split action to grantee money, not gamble.

The most total money is on the Chiefs. The most $1,000+ bets (sharp money) are on SF. But still more money (and total bets) have come in on KC.

Vegas would only provide incentive for people to put their money on one side for this long with this much action if they were confident.

Originally posted by RiceOwensStokes:

Originally posted by billbird2111:

Originally posted by RiceOwensStokes:
They should've stayed in Santa Clara

this week has been a mess

In the Webzone? Yes. I can hardly wait for the game to start so the regular boo birds come out to tell us what a failure Brock is, or how Kyle really isn't a good coach, or how the 49ers aren't that good, or one of a million things we hear from these accounts. Until the team begins to win, and in that case, the boo birds vanish.

My best guess is that Reid will try to sock it to the 49er defense early. Both the Packers and Lions pulled this off with great success. It was not successful in the long run, but did show a weakness. I expect that Reid will try to exploit that.

My greatest desire is that Brock does his best Brock and dominates like we know he can from the first snap till the last. A blowout? Fine by me.

No, bad practice field, fire alarms being pulled, no police escorts to practice. Just feels like there's some force in the universe that's against SF

Those things only matter if the team is already looking for excuses to lose the game. If they deserve to win, they're not going to let a few minor inconveniences distract them.

Originally posted by thl408:
This could be the next big adaptation for offenses, passing out of heavy personnel. If we consider Kyle to be at the cutting edge of offensive innovation, then we should have anticipated this coming when he drafted two TEs in the same draft.
For this game, I think it's critical that Juice stays on the field to provide the threat of both run and pass via personnel. Then use CMC/Deebo interchangeably on a down to down basis to keep KC's defense off balance.

For sure, and also Juszczyk is getting a bit long in the tooth, and we need a younger guy as his understudy. What I like about the two tight end picks is (i think) both can be great fullback in Kyles system. I think thats the reason he double dipped this last draft.

Originally posted by JTsBiggestFan:

Originally posted by Hysterikal:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by tnteicher:
C'mon. Remember Purdy is an elite quarterback. He should let it rip.

Who said don't let it rip? He's got more air yards than anyone this yr.

Mark Twain warned you that he would bring you down to his level and beat you with experience.

Yup, lol.

Do we have to tolerate the troll?

I'm all for good debate, but just being an annoying punkass doesn't do much good for anyone.

Trolls feed on responses. If they are ignored they slowly starve and die a painful death.

Originally posted by Shorteous:

Originally posted by eastie:

Originally posted by okdkid:
Vegas refuses to move the line. Providing incentive for people to put money on KC.

Now why would they want more money on the Chiefs? Hmmmm

Because the game being on the west coast has more Niner money coming in. The objective for a casino is to win money. They don't give a crap about who's who. Just get enough money bet on BOTH TEAMS THAT HOWEVER THE GAME TURNS OUT, THEY WIN.

I don't think most people understand how Vegas makes money.

if a game is 50/50 odds Vegas sets it up like this.

bet on team A $10 wins $9
Bet on team B $10 wins $9

if team A wins, Vegas gets $10 from bet B and pays bet A $9 dollars. They guarantee 10% profit per bet and want lots of bets.

They don't gamble, the "juice" isn't 10% but yall get the point.

Technically, the juice is typically 10%
If you bet Niners at -2.5 at -110 odds, you must put up $110 to win $100
Sometime though, if they don't want to move the line, it might be like SF -2.5 at -115, in which case you have to wager $115 to win $100
Etc., etc...

That being said, there are instances where the books are unbalanced and Vegas is in a position to bank or take a bath, it happens, though not frequently.

Niners walking out to Metallica ...whoa ...amazing

Originally posted by ColorMeBaddFan:

Originally posted by tankle104:

Brock Purdy came in for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Miami last year. I asked Dolphins 5-time Pro Bowl RT Terron Armstead about Purdy and here's what he had to say:

"Brock Purdy is the real thing. Those narratives don't come from credible avenues."

"He's fearless. I think… pic.twitter.com/RHqNsg7H0j

— Chase Senior (@Chase_Senior) February 8, 2024

I stepped away from the Miami game for a little bit and came back and saw Purdy playing. My initial thought was "well, the season's over." By the end of the game, however, I thought the Niners may have found a gem. Miami was pretty good last year and that was a critical game and Brock was clearly not in over his head.

Everyone younger than their early 30s won't have a clue of what I'm talking about, but the only other time I distinctly remember that happening during a single regular season game was with Trent Green way back in the late 90s. Green went into that season as the #3 QB for the Deadskins. Hostetler got hurt in the preseason and Frerotte got hurt in the first regular season game. Green comes in and immediately looks better than Frerotte. The difference is Green was around 28 already and simply not gotten a chance prior to that point. Norv Turner decided immediately after the game that Green was going to start the rest of the year.

Green wasn't a scrub, he made the Pro Bowl twice. Ironically, he got hurt the next year for the Rams and was Wally Pipped by Kurt Warner.

I remember Brady replacing Bledsoe, but Brady during those first 2-3 years wasn't as good as Bledsoe at his peak. Purdy immediately looked better than Jimmy G.

I kept telling my brother " he's the golden boy "

Cam can say it's not from a place of malice, but it is obviously from a place of jealousy. No teams will teach him in the league and is jealous that a guy he thinks he is better than is killing it. Jimmy G was the definition of a stay out of the way QB as he rarely threw the ball and was tasked with simple passes and handoffs. I hope Purdy wins the game and MVP award to prove Cam wrong.

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by Shorteous:

Originally posted by NinerPride365:

Originally posted by okdkid:
Vegas refuses to move the line. Providing incentive for people to put money on KC.

Now why would they want more money on the Chiefs? Hmmmm

Because they like to print money?

Because they have a large liability on the books for futures bets where 49ers picked 9ers to win Super Bowl at favorable odds. They are balancing it out, that and I've heard most of the sharp money has come in on 9ers which would be at larger dollar value than the majority of the small bets coming in on Chiefs. Their goal is to split action to grantee money, not gamble.

The most total money is on the Chiefs. The most $1,000+ bets (sharp money) are on SF. But still more money (and total bets) have come in on KC.

Vegas would only provide incentive for people to put their money on one side for this long with this much action if they were confident.

Don't forget about the liabilities with the future bets when people were getting odds of 800,1000, 2000 for the Niners to win the Super Bowl. That needs to be balanced out with the ledgers on the futures bets plus the actual game action.

I think people are underestimating GB and Detroit. They played a perfect game against the niners and still lost. This chiefs team doesn't have enough weapons to keep up with this niners squad.

Jags gameplan. It's what I'm expecting.

How do you score points on KC? Run the ball, and pass off play action. It's unstoppable if orchestrated correctly. Then you just need the defense to show up.

Originally posted by NinerPride365:

Originally posted by Shorteous:

Originally posted by eastie:

Originally posted by okdkid:
Vegas refuses to move the line. Providing incentive for people to put money on KC.

Now why would they want more money on the Chiefs? Hmmmm

Because the game being on the west coast has more Niner money coming in. The objective for a casino is to win money. They don't give a crap about who's who. Just get enough money bet on BOTH TEAMS THAT HOWEVER THE GAME TURNS OUT, THEY WIN.

I don't think most people understand how Vegas makes money.

if a game is 50/50 odds Vegas sets it up like this.

bet on team A $10 wins $9
Bet on team B $10 wins $9

if team A wins, Vegas gets $10 from bet B and pays bet A $9 dollars. They guarantee 10% profit per bet and want lots of bets.

They don't gamble, the "juice" isn't 10% but yall get the point.

Technically, the juice is typically 10%
If you bet Niners at -2.5 at -110 odds, you must put up $110 to win $100
Sometime though, if they don't want to move the line, it might be like SF -2.5 at -115, in which case you have to wager $115 to win $100
Etc., etc...

That being said, there are instances where the books are unbalanced and Vegas is in a position to bank or take a bath, it happens, though not frequently.

You're right it is generally 10% vig

Here's what has me scratching my head: Top NFL analysts predict this will be a low scoring Super Bowl, which will give the Chiefs the edge over the 49ers because the Chiefs only allowed their opponents to score 17.3 points per game during the 2023 season. However, these analysts conveniently forget that during the 2022 season, the #1 AFC seed Chiefs Opp PPG was 4.4 points higher at 21.7, and yet the Eagles scored 24 points by halftime in Super Bowl LVII, a.k.a. the Kelce Bowl, and 35 points total for the game, which was the highest ever by the losing team in a Super Bowl. In other words, the Chiefs have a slightly better defense than they did last season, while they have significantly less firepower on offense as KC averaged only 21.8 points per game in 2023, in contrast to scoring 29.2 PPG in 2022. So hypothetically speaking, if the Chiefs score 21 points in Super Bowl LVIII, what's to prevent the NIners from scoring 30 points?

Originally posted by RonnieLott:
Cam can say it's not from a place of malice, but it is obviously from a place of jealousy. No teams will teach him in the league and is jealous that a guy he thinks he is better than is killing it. Jimmy G was the definition of a stay out of the way QB as he rarely threw the ball and was tasked with simple passes and handoffs. I hope Purdy wins the game and MVP award to prove Cam wrong.

I loved Kyle's explanation. QBs need three things, they need to be game managers, they need to play in the system, and they need to be game changers when the system doesn't give answers. If you are not all three eventually you won't be in the NFL anymore.Could be 1 game, 1 season, or more but you will not make it. Cam… you are 34 and really have been out of the game for awhile. Although you can be a game changer you weren't 1 or 2 and you can't cut it in the NFL and were forced to stop playing football.

The crazy thing is that the Raiders made the Chiefs look bad but it's like now the Cheifs are playing in the Raiders stadium as the home team