🏆 SUPER BOWL LVIII PREGAME THREAD - SF 49ERS vs KC CHIEFS 🏆

how could we ever stand up to the big bad chiefs? Oh noes!

F that let's smack these queefs

Isn't Ambry a press man corner? I would love to see them press on their receivers and force them to win. Force Mahomes to make tight window throws which he is not very good at. Mahomes and Kelce thrive in zone. That's gonna be the real issue.

Originally posted by RonnieLott:
I think people are underestimating GB and Detroit. They played a perfect game against the niners and still lost. This chiefs team doesn't have enough weapons to keep up with this niners squad.

Jags gameplan. It's what I'm expecting.

How do you score points on KC? Run the ball, and pass off play action. It's unstoppable if orchestrated correctly. Then you just need the defense to show up.

No they didn't. Green Bay was stopped on 4th down, missed a FG, threw 2 INTs, etc.
The Lions did even more wrong with multiple critical 4th down TO's, the fumble by Gibbs, dropped passes, etc.

The Lions and Packers were good opponents but lets not change facts to support an argument.

Purdy is the most scrutinized player in NFL history! At this point the hate is getting really weirdo! Just goes to show how much things have changed over the years. It is really unbelievable that so much hate and negativity is thrown at Brock Purdy. Sounds like most of these haters prefer a RB with a big arm and a pea sized brain to be a starting QB in the NFL.. CRAZY! smh.. When it comes to probowl votes that alone shows you what type of fan base he has already established in a rather short period of time.

Originally posted by Shorteous:

Originally posted by eastie:

Originally posted by okdkid:
Vegas refuses to move the line. Providing incentive for people to put money on KC.

Now why would they want more money on the Chiefs? Hmmmm

Because the game being on the west coast has more Niner money coming in. The objective for a casino is to win money. They don't give a crap about who's who. Just get enough money bet on BOTH TEAMS THAT HOWEVER THE GAME TURNS OUT, THEY WIN.

I don't think most people understand how Vegas makes money.

if a game is 50/50 odds Vegas sets it up like this.

bet on team A $10 wins $9
Bet on team B $10 wins $9

if team A wins, Vegas gets $10 from bet B and pays bet A $9 dollars. They guarantee 10% profit per bet and want lots of bets.

They don't gamble, the "juice" isn't 10% but yall get the point.

The problem is that 50% of the money isn't on each team. 70%+ is on the chiefs. Large discrepancy. So if the niners win, they keep all of that 70%+ and if they lose, they pay a majority of the betters winnings. That becomes more than their 10%.

the 10% stuff only works if the money is even, and it isn't. The line usually moves in a situation like this but right now they don't care, encouraging more people to bet on the chiefs.

Originally posted by okdkid:

Originally posted by Shorteous:

Originally posted by NinerPride365:

Originally posted by okdkid:
Vegas refuses to move the line. Providing incentive for people to put money on KC.

Now why would they want more money on the Chiefs? Hmmmm

Because they like to print money?

Because they have a large liability on the books for futures bets where 49ers picked 9ers to win Super Bowl at favorable odds. They are balancing it out, that and I've heard most of the sharp money has come in on 9ers which would be at larger dollar value than the majority of the small bets coming in on Chiefs. Their goal is to split action to grantee money, not gamble.

The most total money is on the Chiefs. The most $1,000+ bets (sharp money) are on SF. But still more money (and total bets) have come in on KC.

Vegas would only provide incentive for people to put their money on one side for this long with this much action if they were confident.

Sharpe are volume betters where they are stacking their analytics against Vegas. Vegas doesn't know who's going to win, no one can know. Sharps don't care if one bet wins or loses because they believe if their odds are better than Vegas, over time they can model real ROI and profit on many bets.

I believe, the sharps are on 9ers because the probability of 9ers winning is higher than the probability dictated by the line. This reinforces the fact Vegas hasn't changed it because of the liabilities they hold on their books for 9ers futures bets.

Sharps were smart, wait for lines to open, get driven down to 1 point by the public money to get even better odds than the opening line. They played the optics of Patick Mahomes against Vegas.

The Chiefs didn't score at all in the 2nd half of the AFCCG. After their scripted drives, they couldn't move the ball very well at all. The Ravens also panicked and stopped running the ball way too early. They should have come out in the 2nd half and ran the hell out of the ball. They also had some bad penalties and turnovers. That is the only reason KC won that game. If the 49ers commit to running the ball, weather their scripted drives, don't turn the ball over, and don't commit a bunch of dumb penalties, they can beat this team.

Originally posted by tankle104:

Originally posted by Shorteous:

Originally posted by eastie:

Originally posted by okdkid:
Vegas refuses to move the line. Providing incentive for people to put money on KC.

Now why would they want more money on the Chiefs? Hmmmm

Because the game being on the west coast has more Niner money coming in. The objective for a casino is to win money. They don't give a crap about who's who. Just get enough money bet on BOTH TEAMS THAT HOWEVER THE GAME TURNS OUT, THEY WIN.

I don't think most people understand how Vegas makes money.

if a game is 50/50 odds Vegas sets it up like this.

bet on team A $10 wins $9
Bet on team B $10 wins $9

if team A wins, Vegas gets $10 from bet B and pays bet A $9 dollars. They guarantee 10% profit per bet and want lots of bets.

They don't gamble, the "juice" isn't 10% but yall get the point.

The problem is that 50% of the money isn't on each team. 70%+ is on the chiefs. Large discrepancy. So if the niners win, they keep all of that 70%+ and if they lose, they pay a majority of the betters winnings. That becomes more than their 10%.

the 10% stuff only works if the money is even, and it isn't. The line usually moves in a situation like this but right now they don't care, encouraging more people to bet on the chiefs.

I don't know the bet details so I believe you but I did read that Vegas doesn't want the 9ers to win because of all the in season bets for the 9ers to win the superbowl. They are trying to even the books out IMO with the actual game line, which is why the sharps are on the 9ers because I'm guessing the line does not equal the correct probability of win / loss

Originally posted by Young2Owens:
how could we ever stand up to the big bad chiefs? Oh noes!

F that let's smack these queefs

Need to.

I actually think vegas did them a favor as the underdog.

They are going to play off it.

It's been less than two seasons and it's still surreal that the 49ers have Christian McCaffery!

CMC will be Super Bowl MVP!! I love the symmetry with Kyle's dad winning a SB with Christian's dad... the pic of little CMC running on a field of confetti wearing his dad's jersey is epic

Originally posted by bmvanthiel:

Originally posted by RonnieLott:
I think people are underestimating GB and Detroit. They played a perfect game against the niners and still lost. This chiefs team doesn't have enough weapons to keep up with this niners squad.

Jags gameplan. It's what I'm expecting.

How do you score points on KC? Run the ball, and pass off play action. It's unstoppable if orchestrated correctly. Then you just need the defense to show up.

No they didn't. Green Bay was stopped on 4th down, missed a FG, threw 2 INTs, etc.
The Lions did even more wrong with multiple critical 4th down TO's, the fumble by Gibbs, dropped passes, etc.

The Lions and Packers were good opponents but lets not change facts to support an argument.

A.I. is not conscious.

Originally posted by RiceOwensStokes:

Originally posted by billbird2111:

Originally posted by RiceOwensStokes:
They should've stayed in Santa Clara

this week has been a mess

In the Webzone? Yes. I can hardly wait for the game to start so the regular boo birds come out to tell us what a failure Brock is, or how Kyle really isn't a good coach, or how the 49ers aren't that good, or one of a million things we hear from these accounts. Until the team begins to win, and in that case, the boo birds vanish.

My best guess is that Reid will try to sock it to the 49er defense early. Both the Packers and Lions pulled this off with great success. It was not successful in the long run, but did show a weakness. I expect that Reid will try to exploit that.

My greatest desire is that Brock does his best Brock and dominates like we know he can from the first snap till the last. A blowout? Fine by me.

No, bad practice field, fire alarms being pulled, no police escorts to practice. Just feels like there's some force in the universe that's against SF

You mean, "The Swifties" are real?

We literally have space ships and can fly across the world in less than a day. Still no one has figured out how to have reporters ask questions and be heard

With such a great team as Niners with great players as Brock Purdy (only in his 1-1/2 years as starter), Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiuks, and George Kittle, the Super Bowl winner is a sure one.

Originally posted by Hysterikal:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by tnteicher:
C'mon. Remember Purdy is an elite quarterback. He should let it rip.

Who said don't let it rip? He's got more air yards than anyone this yr.

Mark Twain warned you that he would bring you down to his level and beat you with experience.

Oh I've already put him in his place multiple times. Now im just having fun