🏆 SUPER BOWL LVIII PREGAME THREAD - SF 49ERS vs KC CHIEFS 🏆

Originally posted by boast:

I knew they had improved overall which was funny considering they dropped off in terms of EPA.

I think EPA is giving a more accurate measure of our team currently. We were tops in offense and middle of the pack defensively. We are not a top 10 defense I don't think. Obviously the playoffs would help in supporting that case.

Do you have the weighted DVOA numbers? I'm not sure they differ from this split much, but I appreciate higher value being assigned to recent performances (like 3-5 weeks back)

Originally posted by Silky:
I'm going to put my tin foil hat on and go through the one conspiracy in my head. Now that the NFL got what they want and Tay Tay is in the SB, do they care if the Chiefs actually win the SB?

Yes this is the one thought I had towards the Swifies story .. They may want Taylor to consol Kelce after the loss. That's my one hope lol.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by boast:

I knew they had improved overall which was funny considering they dropped off in terms of EPA.

I think EPA is giving a more accurate measure of our team currently. We were tops in offense and middle of the pack defensively. We are not a top 10 defense I don't think. Obviously the playoffs would help in supporting that case.

Do you have the weighted DVOA numbers? I'm not sure they differ from this split much, but I appreciate higher value being assigned to recent performances (like 3-5 weeks back)

i do not but here are the details for the above image

1) The first thing you may notice when comparing regular DVOA to weighted DVOA is that the Kansas City Chiefs defense has improved over the course of the season while the San Francisco 49ers defense has declined. This is in large part an artifact of teams sitting starters in Week 18. The Chiefs defense played very well against Easton Stickwhile the 49ers defense did not play well against Carson Wentz. Here are both defenses split at midseason but with Week 18 removed. This is a particularly apt split because 49ers safety Talanoa Hufanga was injured early in Week 11 against Tampa Bay.

This table also makes clear one of the major storylines of Super Bowl LVIII, which is that both defenses are susceptible to the run against two teams with strong running backs. It's a colossal advantage for the 49ers in particular. The 49ers were No. 1 rushing on first down and No. 2 rushing on second down. The Chiefs were 26th and 25th on defense, respectively. Things are closer on third downs, where the 49ers were 15th and the Chiefs defense was 18th.

2) The 49ers running game averaged 7.2 yards per carry when opponents had only 6 in the box. The Chiefs put only 6 in the box 38% of the time during the regular season, usually when they were tied or leading by a small amount. Do not do that!

3) I introduced a new cornerback coverage DVOA this year, which I've written about here a few times and on Twitter a lot. The cornerback coverage DVOA is based on all coverage snaps, so it's tracking not only giving up completions but giving up big plays as well as preventing targets in the first place.

It's notable that none of the 49ers cornerbacks stand out as particularly better or worse in the cornerback coverage DVOA. They all are a little bit above average. They were all better in the second half of the season.

L'Jarius Sneed at -23% DVOA is the best KC corner by the new cornerback coverage DVOA. Trent McDuffie comes out as surprisingly average, very different from his All-Pro reputation. Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson are very slightly below average. Just like the 49ers cornerbacks, the Chiefs cornerbacks all come out as better in the second half of the season.

4) The 49ers are the No. 1 defense against passes up the middle. Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, of course. Mahomes was average on middle passes during the regular season. But he's been fantastic on middle passes in the postseason: 10-for-17, 11.5 yards per pass, almost all first downs.

5) The Chiefs defense was only 19th in DVOA against wide receivers in the slot or lined up tight during the regular season. They were sixth against wide receivers lined up wide.

6) The Chiefs offense struggled on first downs this season (17th in DVOA) and they only have 13.2% DVOA there in the playoffs (seventh out of 14 playoff teams). 49ers defense was seventh in the league on first downs during the regular season. The Chiefs have been much better on second downs and third downs during the playoffs.

7) The 49ers have a better DVOA against 11 personnel (-11%) because of turnovers, but allow fewer yards per play (4.6 vs. 5.2) to 12 personnel.

8) The Chiefs have a clear advantage on special teams, particularly on field goals and punts (with a good punter compared to poor punt returns from the 49ers).

Originally posted by boast:
i do not but here are the details for the above image

1) The first thing you may notice when comparing regular DVOA to weighted DVOA is that the Kansas City Chiefs defense has improved over the course of the season while the San Francisco 49ers defense has declined. This is in large part an artifact of teams sitting starters in Week 18. The Chiefs defense played very well against Easton Stickwhile the 49ers defense did not play well against Carson Wentz. Here are both defenses split at midseason but with Week 18 removed. This is a particularly apt split because 49ers safety Talanoa Hufanga was injured early in Week 11 against Tampa Bay.

This table also makes clear one of the major storylines of Super Bowl LVIII, which is that both defenses are susceptible to the run against two teams with strong running backs. It's a colossal advantage for the 49ers in particular. The 49ers were No. 1 rushing on first down and No. 2 rushing on second down. The Chiefs were 26th and 25th on defense, respectively. Things are closer on third downs, where the 49ers were 15th and the Chiefs defense was 18th.

2) The 49ers running game averaged 7.2 yards per carry when opponents had only 6 in the box. The Chiefs put only 6 in the box 38% of the time during the regular season, usually when they were tied or leading by a small amount. Do not do that!

3) I introduced a new cornerback coverage DVOA this year, which I've written about here a few times and on Twitter a lot. The cornerback coverage DVOA is based on all coverage snaps, so it's tracking not only giving up completions but giving up big plays as well as preventing targets in the first place.

It's notable that none of the 49ers cornerbacks stand out as particularly better or worse in the cornerback coverage DVOA. They all are a little bit above average. They were all better in the second half of the season.

L'Jarius Sneed at -23% DVOA is the best KC corner by the new cornerback coverage DVOA. Trent McDuffie comes out as surprisingly average, very different from his All-Pro reputation. Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson are very slightly below average. Just like the 49ers cornerbacks, the Chiefs cornerbacks all come out as better in the second half of the season.

4) The 49ers are the No. 1 defense against passes up the middle. Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, of course. Mahomes was average on middle passes during the regular season. But he's been fantastic on middle passes in the postseason: 10-for-17, 11.5 yards per pass, almost all first downs.

5) The Chiefs defense was only 19th in DVOA against wide receivers in the slot or lined up tight during the regular season. They were sixth against wide receivers lined up wide.

6) The Chiefs offense struggled on first downs this season (17th in DVOA) and they only have 13.2% DVOA there in the playoffs (seventh out of 14 playoff teams). 49ers defense was seventh in the league on first downs during the regular season. The Chiefs have been much better on second downs and third downs during the playoffs.

7) The 49ers have a better DVOA against 11 personnel (-11%) because of turnovers, but allow fewer yards per play (4.6 vs. 5.2) to 12 personnel.

8) The Chiefs have a clear advantage on special teams, particularly on field goals and punts (with a good punter compared to poor punt returns from the 49ers).

Thanks for posting the context. Honestly didn't catch that it filtered out week 18… which is necessary. I did the same when looking at their EPA numbers.

This is our year. It won't be easy but I believe.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Thanks for posting the context. Honestly didn't catch that it filtered out week 18… which is necessary. I did the same when looking at their EPA numbers.

So all in all - it translates to us winning the super bowl?!

does anyone have statistics on our o line pass pro? Specifically since week 11 and how it's done in the playoffs? It seems to have gotten better

Originally posted by bigbobby49:
This is our year. It won't be easy but I believe.

moody with the game winner

Originally posted by tankle104:
So all in all - it translates to us winning the super bowl?!

does anyone have statistics on our o line pass pro? Specifically since week 11 and how it's done in the playoffs? It seems to have gotten better

The more telling DVOA numbers at least in terms of the game were the struggles KC has had with the zone run… which is our bread and butter. If we can be successful there we should be able to rip in the playaction pass game. Don't think we want to do to much drop back passing unless we have no choice.

I think we should have success offensively. I'm worried about our defense, but KC doesn't have the horses to run us out of the game early I don't think. We have more flexibility I think in this matchup than either of the first two playoff games.

Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
moody with the game winner

As long as it's more than a 40 yard FG…

Originally posted by Dr_Bill_Walsh:
It's actually based on the first 2 Super Bowls played, not the years…

Super Bowl I : Green Bay (NFL) was the designated home team, wore green jerseys; Kansas City (AFL) was the visiting team, wore white; based on which league was older

Super Bowl II : Oakland Raiders (AFL) was the home team, wore black jerseys; Green Bay (NFL) was the visiting team, wore white

…after the leagues merged in 1970, the rotation continued in the Super Bowl, now between the NFC and AFC, where odd-numbered Super Bowls the NFC is designated "home" and for even-numbered Super Bowls, it's the AFC that's "home". Home team can choose to wear their dark home jerseys or their white "road" jerseys, so sometimes a "home team" wears white instead, either because that's what they always wear (Cowboys), they won all their playoff games on the road and are superstitious about continuing to wear white (2005 Steelers), they lost a lot of Super Bowls wearing their dark jerseys (Broncos, wearing orange), or they won a previous Super Bowl wearing white (Patriots). Niners in 1994 and Rams in 2018 got special permission to wear throwback unis instead.

The white with the SB logo looks sick af

Originally posted by 49ersking:
Both HCs might be good, however, most likely, Shanahan is not going to outsmart Reid. Spagnuolo > Wilks, plus he has proven experience. Mahomes > Purdy.
There is that any given Sunday, but something very different/out of ordinary has to happen for the 49ers to win.

This is not the proper way to compare the coaches and players. For example, Spagnulo is not coaching against Wilks. Your analysis is invalid.

Originally posted by tankle104:
So all in all - it translates to us winning the super bowl?!

not necessarily. the team with the top weighted DVOA in the past 40 years just lost to KC on Sunday.

Originally posted by boast:
not necessarily. the team with the top weighted DVOA in the past 40 years just lost to KC on Sunday.

Here's the table from today's DVOA commentary showing the #RavensFlock with the highest weighted DVOA (more weight to recent games) ever through the Divisional Round. But one of the top teams on the list lost to Mahomes. pic.twitter.com/a6MZdUv6Gk

— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) January 22, 2024

Yep. Their offense really s**t the bed.

We don't have the Ravens D but I imagine we'd cruise to victory if the Chiefs were going to be held to 17 points.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by boast:
not necessarily. the team with the top weighted DVOA in the past 40 years just lost to KC on Sunday.

Here's the table from today's DVOA commentary showing the #RavensFlock with the highest weighted DVOA (more weight to recent games) ever through the Divisional Round. But one of the top teams on the list lost to Mahomes. pic.twitter.com/a6MZdUv6Gk

— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) January 22, 2024

Yep. Their offense really s**t the bed.

We don't have the Ravens D but I imagine we'd cruise to victory if the Chiefs were going to be held to 17 points.

yeah pulled a typical Harbaugh and completely abandoned their dominant run game for their MVP-hopeful QB pass game.

let's hope Kyle doesnt do the same.

Originally posted by boast:
yeah pulled a typical Harbaugh and completely abandoned their dominant run game for their MVP-hopeful QB pass game.

let's hope Kyle doesnt do the same.

They had that horrific goal line fumble too and Lamar didn't pass the win the game from the pocket test. They did a good job containing him and the plays just weren't made