Stats and Strats: Matchup preview vs Chiefs - 2023 Season Super Bowl

One thread cannot contain all the hype. Please post SF/KC related articles, stats, scheme breakdowns, videos, etc. here since the main pregame thread moves fast and informational tidbits get quickly buried. Basically, this thread is for football nerdy stuff.

This chart breaks down DL play, specifically stunt and blitz rates (pass blitz, run blitz). 'Sim pressure' is when a defense rushes an unexpected defender (ex: slot CB) but drops a DL back into coverage. Still a four man rush (not a blitz), but it looks like a blitz because the 4th rusher is a LB/CB.

We talked about Wilks stunting more. Based on this chart the 49ers are middle of the pack in stunt rate when compared to the rest of the league.

Film breakdown of how KC is effective.
TLDW: they disguise coverage well and have creative pressure packages. They often start in a 2 high shell and that explains some of their problems stopping the run, but they try to alleviate the downside of using a 2 high shell (light in the box) by having a large sized DL group to help defend the run.

pasted from other pregame thread

Originally posted by YACBros85:

PFF rankings matchup

Overall
KC- 8th
SF- 1st

Offense
KC- 11th
SF- 1st

Passing
KC- 5th
SF- 10th

PBLCK
KC- 7th
SF- 25th

Receiving
KC- 16th
SF- 1st

Rushing
KC- 10th
SF- 1st

RBLCK
KC- 17th
SF- 1st

Defense
KC- 13th
SF- 3rd

Run Def
KC- 16th
SF- 15th

Tackling
KC- 15th
SF- 6th

Pass rush
KC- 17th
SF- 3rd

Coverage
KC- 10th
SF- 3rd

Special teams
KC- 4th
SF- 23rd

They looked like a one and done during the season. Regular season numbers may be heavily skewed for Niners

Great info THL as always! Nice thread

Originally posted by boast:

1) The first thing you may notice when comparing regular DVOA to weighted DVOA is that the Kansas City Chiefs defense has improved over the course of the season while the San Francisco 49ers defense has declined. This is in large part an artifact of teams sitting starters in Week 18. The Chiefs defense played very well against Easton Stickwhile the 49ers defense did not play well against Carson Wentz. Here are both defenses split at midseason but with Week 18 removed. This is a particularly apt split because 49ers safety Talanoa Hufanga was injured early in Week 11 against Tampa Bay.

This table also makes clear one of the major storylines of Super Bowl LVIII, which is that both defenses are susceptible to the run against two teams with strong running backs. It's a colossal advantage for the 49ers in particular. The 49ers were No. 1 rushing on first down and No. 2 rushing on second down. The Chiefs were 26th and 25th on defense, respectively. Things are closer on third downs, where the 49ers were 15th and the Chiefs defense was 18th.

2) The 49ers running game averaged 7.2 yards per carry when opponents had only 6 in the box. The Chiefs put only 6 in the box 38% of the time during the regular season, usually when they were tied or leading by a small amount. Do not do that!

3) I introduced a new cornerback coverage DVOA this year, which I've written about here a few times and on Twitter a lot. The cornerback coverage DVOA is based on all coverage snaps, so it's tracking not only giving up completions but giving up big plays as well as preventing targets in the first place.

It's notable that none of the 49ers cornerbacks stand out as particularly better or worse in the cornerback coverage DVOA. They all are a little bit above average. They were all better in the second half of the season.

L'Jarius Sneed at -23% DVOA is the best KC corner by the new cornerback coverage DVOA. Trent McDuffie comes out as surprisingly average, very different from his All-Pro reputation. Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson are very slightly below average. Just like the 49ers cornerbacks, the Chiefs cornerbacks all come out as better in the second half of the season.

4) The 49ers are the No. 1 defense against passes up the middle. Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, of course. Mahomes was average on middle passes during the regular season. But he's been fantastic on middle passes in the postseason: 10-for-17, 11.5 yards per pass, almost all first downs.

5) The Chiefs defense was only 19th in DVOA against wide receivers in the slot or lined up tight during the regular season. They were sixth against wide receivers lined up wide.

6) The Chiefs offense struggled on first downs this season (17th in DVOA) and they only have 13.2% DVOA there in the playoffs (seventh out of 14 playoff teams). 49ers defense was seventh in the league on first downs during the regular season. The Chiefs have been much better on second downs and third downs during the playoffs.

7) The 49ers have a better DVOA against 11 personnel (-11%) because of turnovers, but allow fewer yards per play (4.6 vs. 5.2) to 12 personnel.

8) The Chiefs have a clear advantage on special teams, particularly on field goals and punts (with a good punter compared to poor punt returns from the 49ers).

Good advanced stats stuff, taken from the main pregame thread.

(long) Article about KC defense disguising a lot and how it helps them defend presnap motion:
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2024/1/25/24050457/kansas-city-chiefs-baltimore-ravens-afc-championship-steve-spagnuolo-mike-macdonald-defense-motion

(TLDR: Defenses use the fact that offensive presnap motion is a tell as to when the ball will be snapped. A big part of disguising coverage is being as late as possible on the post snap rotation. Rotating too early allows the QB to see what's about to happen. So defenses key on the motion player. Once the offensive player goes in motion, the defense has a good idea of when the ball will be snapped. And that's when they activate their defensive disguise tactics). 49ers are one of the teams with a high percentage of presnap motion.

--------------------------------
Ideally, the coverage starts to rotate just as the ball is snapped so that defenders are already flying in motion when the quarterback goes to make his reads. But you don't always know when exactly the ball will be snapped.
… unless you're playing one of those teams that uses motion all the time. Then you can be pretty sure when the ball will be snapped.

Spags rotates coverages as much as any defensive coach in the league, spinning from two-high to one-high or from one-high to two-high, dropping a cornerback to a zone typically filled by a safety and a safety down into a zone typically filled by a linebacker.

Originally posted by Heroism:

NFL teams can't cover this simple play properly

KC might run it a couple of times today pic.twitter.com/hj659g1VjR

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) January 28, 2024

Diagram from the great @TheHonestNFL

Reid will call this on Ambry Thomas' side https://t.co/E1PkptXjzG pic.twitter.com/25HAOCkbY2

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) January 29, 2024

Ted Nguyen doing cut ups on Twitter? hell yeah.
The past couple seasons has seen pattern matching coverages become a staple of all defensive schemes. These types of route combos are designed to wreck those pattern matching rules by making the picture muddy for the defensive players. Pattern matching defenders are asked to read the depth and leverage of routes and decide post snap who is covering who. When an offensive play designer understands those rules, they put routes in "no man's land" and it confuses the defenders, leading to busted coverages.

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
They looked like a one and done during the season. Regular season numbers may be heavily skewed for Niners

yup for sure for the offense the defense should be pretty accurate

Originally posted by thl408:
This chart breaks down DL play, specifically stunt and blitz rates (pass blitz, run blitz). 'Sim pressure' is when a defense rushes an unexpected defender (ex: slot CB) but drops a DL back into coverage. Still a four man rush (not a blitz), but it looks like a blitz because the 4th rusher is a LB/CB.

We talked about Wilks stunting more. Based on this chart the 49ers are middle of the pack in stunt rate when compared to the rest of the league.

There's been some talk in Eagles nation that Fangio isn't aggressive.

1st-he blitzes at about league avg rate.
2nd-he uses simulated pressures at the highest rate in the league

His combined blitz + sim pressure rate is 2nd highest in NFL.

Also, tied for 4th in use of Cover 0 pic.twitter.com/U85CusvSxn

— Nick Waters (@Philly_Films) January 25, 2024

This is intresting i kind of like the balance we have i am not really a huge fan of simulated pressure so I'm ok with using that at a lower rate. Whats interesting is that our pass rushing scheme is the exact same as the texans (Ryans)

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-statistical-final-team-tiers-dropback-outcomes-2023
There's a bunch of nerdy graphs and charts in that link.

Originally posted by thl408:
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-statistical-final-team-tiers-dropback-outcomes-2023
There's a bunch of nerdy graphs and charts in that link.

SF standing out like Secretariat in a horse race