Stats and Strats: Matchup preview vs Chiefs - 2023 Season Super Bowl

I didn't pay for the sub so this is only a preview of the article, but it has some interesting snippets about the KC defense.

https://www.matchquarters.com/p/attacking-the-b-gaps-in-protection-chiefs-spags
In '23, the scheme blossomed. Spags finally had the players he needed to run his pressure-intensive concepts dominated by split-field coverages. After the regular season, this year's Chiefs defense ranked 7th in DVOA and 5th against the pass. The timing couldn't have been better, as KC's offense 'struggled' (a relative term) all year. The defense carried the team in Andy Reid's 11th year in KC.

Spagnuolo runs one of the most unique defenses in the NFL. The Chiefs run the third-highest rate of Cover 2 (19.1%) and the tenth-highest rate of Quarters, according to PFF. Though Spags will run Cover 6 (QQH/HQQ), it is not a significant part of his base schematics. But, when 'umbrella' concepts (MOFC/MOFO) are combined, the Chiefs run the highest rate of split-field coverages in the NFL, 2% higher than the Cardinals.

Coverage usage makes Spags unique, but how he implements his split-field coverages behind pressures makes his defenses special. Kansas City has the eighth-highest blitz rate in the NFL at 31.2%. On passing downs, the Chiefs utilize five-man pressures on 60.5% of them. That number is not high compared to the rest of the league, but Spags' Trap-2 pressures (5MPRS + Cover 2) are what has become a must-watch for teams wanting to blitz but maintain a split-field shell.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Their high rate of 2 high shells could explain why they are good defending the pass and, statistically, not good at defending the run. I wouldn't be surprised if KC's gameplan is to go away from so much 2 high and come with more single high in an effort to get another defender into the box to stop the SF run game. KC might like their matchup of their CBs versus the 49ers WRs in man coverage. When watching the game, keep an eye out for if KC is single high or two high. If they are single high, that is not normal for them.

The term (5MPRS + Cover 2, 5man pressure Cover2) from above means that they zone blitz with a 2 high shell behind it. Most zone blitzes are 'fire zones' where it's 3deep/3under. '5MPRS + Cover 2' means 2 deep/4under. When they go 2deep/4under, KC is banking on the blitz getting home so that their 2 deep guys aren't victimized. Will be interesting to see how Kyle combats this. It'd be nice to pick up the blitz and attack deep, but that's a big ask for the 49ers OL protection. I'd love to see a well timed screen pass to CMC.

Originally posted by thl408:
Film breakdown of how KC is effective.
TLDW: they disguise coverage well and have creative pressure packages. They often start in a 2 high shell and that explains some of their problems stopping the run, but they try to alleviate the downside of using a 2 high shell (light in the box) by having a large sized DL group to help defend the run.

How would you take advantage of this?

Originally posted by thl408:
I didn't pay for the sub so this is only a preview of the article, but it has some interesting snippets about the KC defense.

https://www.matchquarters.com/p/attacking-the-b-gaps-in-protection-chiefs-spags
In '23, the scheme blossomed. Spags finally had the players he needed to run his pressure-intensive concepts dominated by split-field coverages. After the regular season, this year's Chiefs defense ranked 7th in DVOA and 5th against the pass. The timing couldn't have been better, as KC's offense 'struggled' (a relative term) all year. The defense carried the team in Andy Reid's 11th year in KC.

Spagnuolo runs one of the most unique defenses in the NFL. The Chiefs run the third-highest rate of Cover 2 (19.1%) and the tenth-highest rate of Quarters, according to PFF. Though Spags will run Cover 6 (QQH/HQQ), it is not a significant part of his base schematics. But, when 'umbrella' concepts (MOFC/MOFO) are combined, the Chiefs run the highest rate of split-field coverages in the NFL, 2% higher than the Cardinals.

Coverage usage makes Spags unique, but how he implements his split-field coverages behind pressures makes his defenses special. Kansas City has the eighth-highest blitz rate in the NFL at 31.2%. On passing downs, the Chiefs utilize five-man pressures on 60.5% of them. That number is not high compared to the rest of the league, but Spags' Trap-2 pressures (5MPRS + Cover 2) are what has become a must-watch for teams wanting to blitz but maintain a split-field shell.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Their high rate of 2 high shells could explain why they are good defending the pass and, statistically, not good at defending the run. I wouldn't be surprised if KC's gameplan is to go away from so much 2 high and come with more single high in an effort to get another defender into the box to stop the SF run game. KC might like their matchup of their CBs versus the 49ers WRs in man coverage. When watching the game, keep an eye out for if KC is single high or two high. If they are single high, that is not normal for them.

Good one, to follow, the single high was the opener vs BAL, and a reason why the Ravens didn't run. It tests the ability of Lamar to come up with answers in some sort of quick game. I think that's maybe the key, how quick can Brock play, and have the right answers, to beat this look. It invites us to pass. A challenge is KC has two corners who are sticky and they play very hands on. We have the skill guys, and the playcaller, and the QB to beat it, a matter of Brock executing early in the biggest game of his life. You get the ball out quick to Deebo, BA, CMC, or 85 vs single high and it can be one man to beat for a housecall.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by thl408:
Film breakdown of how KC is effective.
TLDW: they disguise coverage well and have creative pressure packages. They often start in a 2 high shell and that explains some of their problems stopping the run, but they try to alleviate the downside of using a 2 high shell (light in the box) by having a large sized DL group to help defend the run.

How would you take advantage of this?

same as last time.. but don't let them bat down balls at the LOS

Originally posted by thl408:
Film breakdown of how KC is effective.
TLDW: they disguise coverage well and have creative pressure packages. They often start in a 2 high shell and that explains some of their problems stopping the run, but they try to alleviate the downside of using a 2 high shell (light in the box) by having a large sized DL group to help defend the run.

That safey rotation at 7:26 was nifty. It almost looked like the backside safety was tipping that he'd be a robber or buzzing and then they counter rolled back to 2 high lol.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by thl408:
Film breakdown of how KC is effective.
TLDW: they disguise coverage well and have creative pressure packages. They often start in a 2 high shell and that explains some of their problems stopping the run, but they try to alleviate the downside of using a 2 high shell (light in the box) by having a large sized DL group to help defend the run.

How would you take advantage of this?

I hope Kyle entertains the thought of running into an 8 man box. Forget what the whiteboard says (run versus 7 in the box, pass versus 8 in the box) and commit to the run game to challenge KC's front. I don't know how patient they will be if it's 2nd & 9, but I would not go 'by the book' and not run the ball simply because it's an 8 man front. I'm just looking at the weights of the KC DL now, and I don't see them being big. I don't know why that video above said that.

On passing downs, Kyle needs to do something to assist Brock's presnap reads. Post #10 of this thread mentions how defenses key the motion player to know when the ball is about to be snapped, and that's when they activate their coverage rotation (disguise). Change up when the ball is snapped, somehow. One way to take advantage of defenses that like to rotate their safeties postsnap, is to attack where the rotation is occurring because that space is being vacated with the safety running away from that area. That's on Kyle to understand when and where it's happening.

There are two basic types of pass plays. One type if fully committed to beating a certain coverage - Kyle/Brock better be sure they knows what they are about to see from the defense if Kyle wants to call these. The other type beats a certain coverage on the left side of the field, and a different coverage on the right. Kyle may need to dial up more of these and put the pressure on Brock to make the right decision. This is to beat all the crafty zone coverages.
When it comes to man coverage, I do think KC's CBs are good and that will present a problem for Aiyuk/Deebo/Jennings. The focus should then shift to Kittle/CMC versus LBs and safeties. Let them work underneath on crossers and/or choice routes.

Originally posted by Heroism:
That safey rotation at 7:26 was nifty. It almost looked like the backside safety was tipping that he'd be a robber or buzzing and then they counter rolled back to 2 high lol.

And they keyed the motion player to know when to activate their post snap rotation. I didn't think there was a downside to running a lot of presnap motion. DCs have found one.

This is so fitting, Warner breaking down '4 strong', which means a formation that is 4x1. 4x1 is popular now because of all the split safety coverages. Split safety coverages is used to put 4 defenders vs 3 WRs on one side of the field, and 3 defenders vs 2 WRs to the other side of the field. 4x1 breaks this coverage principle.

TLDW:
Isolate the 1 WR backside. This is ideally Aiyuk, but KC has good CBs that won't let Aiyuk win everytime.
Flood the 4 WR side and space the defenders out so that someone is open.
Run a few of the WRs on the 4 side to the backside (1 WR side) to attack that side of the defense since when defenses see 4x1, they send help over to the 4 WR side. This requires good pass pro.

'Spags is a wizard': How Steve Spagnuolo turned Chiefs defense into one of NFL's best
https://theathletic.com/5224800/2024/01/26/steve-spagnuolo-chiefs-defense-nfl-playoffs/

Seems figuring out the KC defense could be the key to the game.

1. KC Def vs. Bills
"We made some (pre-snap) checks that we never practiced," safety Justin Reid said. "We put them in at halftime and went out and executed them on the field. It made all the difference." "We fixed the things that needed to be fixed," linebacker Drue Tranquill said.

Seems KC is flexible so Niners need to adjust to adjustments even if offense finds success in first half.

2. "Spags is a wizard, man," defensive end Mike Danna said. "He's got tons of blitzes, and he knows how to get after a quarterback."
Spagnuolo leaned into his reputation, creating havoc for the quarterback while not surrendering long completions. The Chiefs blitzed on third down at the fifth-highest rate in the league (39.3 percent), plays that produced the third-highest pressure rate (64.3 percent), according to Next Gen Stats.

Need answers to 3rd down blitz?

3. "The results? The Chiefs led the league with 73 unblocked pressures."
"Spagnuolo's best blend of producing an effective pass rush, exceptional coverage and timely blitzes occurs when he employs dime personnel — six defensive backs, one linebacker and four linemen, a personnel grouping he used most in the league (185 snaps), according to TruMedia."

"The Chiefs' dime personnel generated a league-leading 27 sacks and 92 "splash" plays (such as a turnover, sack, negative-yardage play or a pass breakup.)"

Need answer to dime package blitzes?

4. "Operating from the slot, McDuffie led the Chiefs with five forced fumbles, in addition to recording seven pass breakups, three sacks and nine quarterback hits. He led all defensive backs with 14 unblocked pressures."

Niners need to key-in on and neutralize McDuffie's impact somehow?

5. "Earlier this month, when the defense had its first meeting ahead of the team's wild-card round game against the Dolphins, Spagnuolo informed his players that he would add more wrinkles to the game plan — new plays, blitzes and pre-snap checks — because he appreciated their collective intelligence."

The game featured one of Spagnuolo's best-disguised coverages. Edwards and Conner showed two-high coverage before rotating to a single-high look, with Conner as the deepest defender, before the snap. But after the snap, Edwards and Conner continued to rotate, switching back to two-high coverage. The play ended with Edwards intercepting Tagovailoa's intermediate pass.

In the second half, Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel voiced his frustration while watching the Chiefs defense limit his offense, which averaged 29.2 points on the season, to just seven. "We can't do s—, man," McDaniel said.

Note: KC defense held the #1 AFC offense Miami to 7 points. (They held the #2 AFC offense Baltimore to 10 points)

Expect a custom-tailored game-plan against Niners with their versatile D.
This is not a normal great defense. Shanahan needs to play 5D chess schematically?

Seems like facing this new and improved chiefs D is going to be an uphill battle. Might have to rely on Brock doing some off schedule stuff which could be really good or really bad.

One thing I didn't like from the DET game was when DET used an OT as a TE and the 49ers didn't counter by adding more run stopping to their personnel - 49ers would counter with their base personnel (3LBs, 4 DBs). If DET removes a route runner (TE) and uses an OL instead, then remove some coverage ability, a safety, and put on another LB.

If KC puts 13 personnel on the field, then Wilks needs to remove a CB and put on another LB or safety for added run stopping power. Sacrifice pass coverage for run defense since that's what KC would be doing by playing 13 (1RB, 3 TEs, 1 WR).

Originally posted by Jd925:
'Spags is a wizard': How Steve Spagnuolo turned Chiefs defense into one of NFL's best
https://theathletic.com/5224800/2024/01/26/steve-spagnuolo-chiefs-defense-nfl-playoffs/

Seems figuring out the KC defense could be the key to the game.

1. KC Def vs. Bills
"We made some (pre-snap) checks that we never practiced," safety Justin Reid said. "We put them in at halftime and went out and executed them on the field. It made all the difference." "We fixed the things that needed to be fixed," linebacker Drue Tranquill said.

Seems KC is flexible so Niners need to adjust to adjustments even if offense finds success in first half.

2. "Spags is a wizard, man," defensive end Mike Danna said. "He's got tons of blitzes, and he knows how to get after a quarterback."
Spagnuolo leaned into his reputation, creating havoc for the quarterback while not surrendering long completions. The Chiefs blitzed on third down at the fifth-highest rate in the league (39.3 percent), plays that produced the third-highest pressure rate (64.3 percent), according to Next Gen Stats.

Need answers to 3rd down blitz?

3. "The results? The Chiefs led the league with 73 unblocked pressures."
"Spagnuolo's best blend of producing an effective pass rush, exceptional coverage and timely blitzes occurs when he employs dime personnel — six defensive backs, one linebacker and four linemen, a personnel grouping he used most in the league (185 snaps), according to TruMedia."

"The Chiefs' dime personnel generated a league-leading 27 sacks and 92 "splash" plays (such as a turnover, sack, negative-yardage play or a pass breakup.)"

Need answer to dime package blitzes?

4. "Operating from the slot, McDuffie led the Chiefs with five forced fumbles, in addition to recording seven pass breakups, three sacks and nine quarterback hits. He led all defensive backs with 14 unblocked pressures."

Niners need to key-in on and neutralize McDuffie's impact somehow?

5. "Earlier this month, when the defense had its first meeting ahead of the team's wild-card round game against the Dolphins, Spagnuolo informed his players that he would add more wrinkles to the game plan — new plays, blitzes and pre-snap checks — because he appreciated their collective intelligence."

The game featured one of Spagnuolo's best-disguised coverages. Edwards and Conner showed two-high coverage before rotating to a single-high look, with Conner as the deepest defender, before the snap. But after the snap, Edwards and Conner continued to rotate, switching back to two-high coverage. The play ended with Edwards intercepting Tagovailoa's intermediate pass.

In the second half, Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel voiced his frustration while watching the Chiefs defense limit his offense, which averaged 29.2 points on the season, to just seven. "We can't do s—, man," McDaniel said.

Note: KC defense held the #1 AFC offense Miami to 7 points. (They held the #2 AFC offense Baltimore to 10 points)

Expect a custom-tailored game-plan against Niners with their versatile D.
This is not a normal great defense. Shanahan needs to play 5D chess schematically?

3. "The results? The Chiefs led the league with 73 unblocked pressures."

This part is scary and the 49ers OL will be tested. Brock will need to cover up for any mistakes the OL makes in blitz pickup. I hope that Kyle occasionally considers beating the blitz with quick throws as opposed to keeping a RB and/or TE in for added pass protection. Perhaps CMC fakes pass pro then slips out for a dumpoff. Get those hot reads ready and take advantage of the added open space when KC blitzes. Brock's #1 rating in throwing versus the blitz will need to shine.

Not sure how this rating is calculated but it shows that KC's defense is excellent at preventing YAC. 49ers have the YAC Bros. Will be epic.