Stats and Strats: Matchup preview vs Chiefs - 2023 Season Super Bowl

Not sure this reveals anything as to what may happen in the game. KC's defense could be gameplan specific so depending on the opponent, favored coverages may change depending on the opponent.

This one could be more relevant since it's only about 3rd downs. Notice KC's blitz rate on 3rd & 7-10 yards. 48% blitz rate.

This is one example of why Kittle and CMC must be relied upon to carry the load in the passing game. Throwing to Aiyuk is going against a strength of the KC defense.

Originally posted by thl408:
The term (5MPRS + Cover 2, 5man pressure Cover2) from above means that they zone blitz with a 2 high shell behind it. Most zone blitzes are 'fire zones' where it's 3deep/3under. '5MPRS + Cover 2' means 2 deep/4under. When they go 2deep/4under, KC is banking on the blitz getting home so that their 2 deep guys aren't victimized. Will be interesting to see how Kyle combats this. It'd be nice to pick up the blitz and attack deep, but that's a big ask for the 49ers OL protection. I'd love to see a well timed screen pass to CMC.

Brendel's going to be key for the 49ers blitz protection and blitz pickup calls. Brendel should be studying all the Spagnuolo's blitz stats on 3rd downs.

The other obvious thing is to just run at the blitz. If a run play is called right (away from the blitz for example), it can be an explosive play against Spagnulo's defense. That might force him to call off the dogs.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by thl408:
Film breakdown of how KC is effective.
TLDW: they disguise coverage well and have creative pressure packages. They often start in a 2 high shell and that explains some of their problems stopping the run, but they try to alleviate the downside of using a 2 high shell (light in the box) by having a large sized DL group to help defend the run.

How would you take advantage of this?

Creative pressure defenses are designed to stop the pass, so it's simple --- Run at them.

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by thl408:
The term (5MPRS + Cover 2, 5man pressure Cover2) from above means that they zone blitz with a 2 high shell behind it. Most zone blitzes are 'fire zones' where it's 3deep/3under. '5MPRS + Cover 2' means 2 deep/4under. When they go 2deep/4under, KC is banking on the blitz getting home so that their 2 deep guys aren't victimized. Will be interesting to see how Kyle combats this. It'd be nice to pick up the blitz and attack deep, but that's a big ask for the 49ers OL protection. I'd love to see a well timed screen pass to CMC.

Brendel's going to be key for the 49ers blitz protection and blitz pickup calls. Brendel should be studying all the Spagnuolo's blitz stats on 3rd downs.

The other obvious thing is to just run at the blitz. If a run play is called right (away from the blitz for example), it can be an explosive play against Spagnulo's defense. That might force him to call off the dogs.

Maybe from midfield onward to their side of the field, we should call a run play on 3rd and 7-10 to at least get to 4th and short

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Good one, to follow, the single high was the opener vs BAL, and a reason why the Ravens didn't run. It tests the ability of Lamar to come up with answers in some sort of quick game. I think that's maybe the key, how quick can Brock play, and have the right answers, to beat this look. It invites us to pass. A challenge is KC has two corners who are sticky and they play very hands on. We have the skill guys, and the playcaller, and the QB to beat it, a matter of Brock executing early in the biggest game of his life. You get the ball out quick to Deebo, BA, CMC, or 85 vs single high and it can be one man to beat for a housecall.

Contrary to popular belief, nickel defenses *can stop the run* but you have to take chances and pretty much overload and commit to stopping the run on a particular play. That means it's weak against the pass (in a sense) - and I think that's what the Ravens were trying to do - pass on those nickel defenses run blitzing. Personally, I think you just run at these nickel defenses and let them prove to you that they can stop the run with their run blitzes. If they can't, you have a scheme advantage throughout the game.

Originally posted by Young2Owens:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by thl408:
The term (5MPRS + Cover 2, 5man pressure Cover2) from above means that they zone blitz with a 2 high shell behind it. Most zone blitzes are 'fire zones' where it's 3deep/3under. '5MPRS + Cover 2' means 2 deep/4under. When they go 2deep/4under, KC is banking on the blitz getting home so that their 2 deep guys aren't victimized. Will be interesting to see how Kyle combats this. It'd be nice to pick up the blitz and attack deep, but that's a big ask for the 49ers OL protection. I'd love to see a well timed screen pass to CMC.

Brendel's going to be key for the 49ers blitz protection and blitz pickup calls. Brendel should be studying all the Spagnuolo's blitz stats on 3rd downs.

The other obvious thing is to just run at the blitz. If a run play is called right (away from the blitz for example), it can be an explosive play against Spagnulo's defense. That might force him to call off the dogs.

Maybe from midfield onward to their side of the field, we should call a run play on 3rd and 7-10 to at least get to 4th and short

Agree, and it's *obvious* where they are going to blitz. It's going to be to the right side of the 49er offensive line.

Originally posted by 4ML:

San Francisco's zone running game this year: 1st in yds/carry.

KC vs zone runs: 31st in yds/carry allowed 😬

Talked about a few of the ways in which SF matches up well with the Chiefs on the ground. pic.twitter.com/2do2yb74wJ

— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) February 5, 2024

from the main thread

Throw all the stats about tendencies out the window. This isn't some average weekly game. Both teams will have completely custom game plans.

Originally posted by All22:
Throw all the stats about tendencies out the window. This isn't some average weekly game. Both teams will have completely custom game plans.

I still like to learn the strengths and weaknesses of the SB opponent and how some aspects of the two teams match up. All good if you find it worthless.

Originally posted by thl408:
This is so fitting, Warner breaking down '4 strong', which means a formation that is 4x1. 4x1 is popular now because of all the split safety coverages. Split safety coverages is used to put 4 defenders vs 3 WRs on one side of the field, and 3 defenders vs 2 WRs to the other side of the field. 4x1 breaks this coverage principle.

Next #StudyBall is diving into the "4 Strong" idea again, this time with the @49ers… Little details that I believe can make these plays astronomically better (in terms of placing pressure on D)… compare to Chiefs 4 Strong StudyBall from yest! @QBConfidential pic.twitter.com/1dJ0IvBIeW

— Kurt Warner (@kurt13warner) February 2, 2024

TLDW:
Isolate the 1 WR backside. This is ideally Aiyuk, but KC has good CBs that won't let Aiyuk win everytime.
Flood the 4 WR side and space the defenders out so that someone is open.
Run a few of the WRs on the 4 side to the backside (1 WR side) to attack that side of the defense since when defenses see 4x1, they send help over to the 4 WR side. This requires good pass pro.

Article on how KC uses 4x1. Again, this is to combat Quarters (split safeties). Might the 49ers go back to their original roots and combat this with Cover3 Mable calls (Seattle Cover3 variant that Saleh taught)? Single up Mooney 1v1 on the 1 WR wide, pattern match the 4 strong side. For example, in the first play of the article (Kelce catch) #0, the strongside Hook, needs to match Kelce, not spot drop.
In the second play of the article (vs LVR Cover6), good example of why split safety coverages get broken versus these overloaded formations. It starts as 3x1, but becomes 4x1.
Wilks needs a plan here and it has to involve pattern matching. It'll also be up to Gipson/Warner to make post huddle audibles, and get the defense into the correct alignment once they see how KC is lining up. Tig Brown needs to be on his game. Rookie safeties dealing with late audibles can be dicey.

TLDR: It's a formation that allows for the bunched WRs to get a clean release, then the defenders' leverage is attacked. A number of examples on how KC uses this.

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2024/02/06/super-bowl-lviii-patrick-mahomes-andy-reid-travis-kelce/
This season, including the playoffs, Mahomes has 28 explosive passes out of 3×1 sets, averaging 31.4 yards per play, and 4.8 yards of separation per play to the intended receiver. No matter the coverage or pressure, the Chiefs create all kinds of havoc in those 3×1 sets.

Those results are further magnified when the call is to send a back or a fourth receiver into the area where the three bunched receivers are. Then, opposing defenses are dealing with Andy Reid's "four-strong" concepts, and the numbers game rarely, if ever, favors the defense.

Originally posted by thl408:
This is one example of why Kittle and CMC must be relied upon to carry the load in the passing game. Throwing to Aiyuk is going against a strength of the KC defense.

Aiyuk ran 82% of his routes this season lined up on the outside

the Chiefs allowed just 6.7 yards per target to boundary WRs this year (second) with a 51% catch rate allowed (second) and 1,311 receiving yards allowed (fourth)

read more on his matchup:https://t.co/fziLMspvUO

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) February 5, 2024

How often did they play against Aiyuk? Will they single him?

Originally posted by Dirtydonedirtcheap69:

Originally posted by thl408:
This is one example of why Kittle and CMC must be relied upon to carry the load in the passing game. Throwing to Aiyuk is going against a strength of the KC defense.

Aiyuk ran 82% of his routes this season lined up on the outside

the Chiefs allowed just 6.7 yards per target to boundary WRs this year (second) with a 51% catch rate allowed (second) and 1,311 receiving yards allowed (fourth)

read more on his matchup:https://t.co/fziLMspvUO

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) February 5, 2024

How often did they play against Aiyuk? Will they single him?

KC might trust their CBs to single him - they have good CBs and they like to play man. I think they are top3 at frequency in calling man coverage, something like that. Aiyuk must be on his game to get separation. There are better matchups for the 49ers that doesn't involve the Chief CBs.