Stats and Strats: Matchup preview vs Chiefs - 2023 Season Super Bowl

Originally posted by Tigerlaw:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Giedi:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Good piece here's a snippet:

Spagnuolo has been lauded for teaching a masterclass on blitzing in the Chiefs' 17-10 AFC championship game in Baltimore vs. the presumptive MVP in Lamar Jackson. The Chiefs blitzed 20 times in that game. All 20 were different blitzes in terms of who blitzed, from where and with what coverage. Let that sink in. Twenty blitzes. All different.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2024-super-bowl-49ers-could-have-answers-for-steve-spagnuolo-and-the-chiefs-vaunted-blitz-attack-heres-how/

We are the top squad against the blitz, I don't think we'll see all the DB blitzes you had on Lamar, a lot of those are to help contain

Funny, I thought Wilks was going to be this way. Once he got burned early in the season, that was about it, it seems.

Wilks can get pressure without blitzes, so I think that's why he doesn't blitz much.

I like balance. The point of the Wilks hire was his ability to coach up and scheme the secondary to another level while also complimenting the massive amount of resources spent on the DL with exotic and timely blitzes.

Wilks doesn't have to do some magical SB scheme...just cover the f**king basics

Last game we gave up 1st downs against 3rd and 8/10/12/14

Opposing offenses should not be converting 3rd and longs against this defense

Yeah, when you can't cover the basics, there's no point in focusing on next-layer of the defensive schemes.

Hmm, same thing the Ravens did to the Niners.

Originally posted by Heroism:
Hmm, same thing the Ravens did to the Niners.

If you go condensed, Spags will send both CBs.

Here is a look at it vs. the Vikings.

>> Call this 'Chucky.'#ArtofX pic.twitter.com/VGgp1zSM3F

— Cody Alexander (@The_Coach_A) February 7, 2024

There is a very simple counter to this and it involves sight adjustments from the WR. If the CB blitzes, adjust to a short out route. Look at how much cushion the safeties have on the outside WRs. Sight adjust those vertical routes (deep curls) into quick outs and YAC it up.

In that play above, imagine at 0:03 of the video, Brock is throwing an Out route, with anticipation. It's pitch and catch.

One way to force the defense to reveal whether they are blitzing or not would be to change up the snapcount. Brock can give hard counts and alter his cadence. But to do this the 49ers would need to eliminate presnap motion, which is a tell as to when the ball is going to be snapped.

Originally posted by jonnydel:
Well, here is part 1 of my much anticipated(if from no one else, me) preview scouting video on the Chiefs. I tried to take a slightly different approach. Went with the coordinators opening dialogue - 5 keys to success, idea. What are the areas they're going to focus on this week. Check it out and let me know what you think of the format.

Originally posted by thl408:
One way to force the defense to reveal whether they are blitzing or not would be to change up the snapcount. Brock can give hard counts and alter his cadence. But to do this the 49ers would need to eliminate presnap motion, which is a tell as to when the ball is going to be snapped.

49ers went uptempo in the 2nd half of the lions game. I'm wondering if they'd start with an uptempo offense sometime in the first half. that might be another way to reveal a blitz call or not.

Zone defense

Mahomes vs zone

KC will use 13 (1rb, 3te, 1wr) personnel to create matchup problems. I think staying in base with 2CBs on the field is not the solution - 49ers need to match the added size of the three TEs. Perhaps this means taking DeMo off the field and adding a third safety, or a 4th LB. I don't think a 4th LB is the way to go.
DET didn't use a third TE but they did use an OL as a second TE in their two TE sets. 49ers stayed in base and got ran on - they did not match the added size.

Originally posted by tankle104:

The 49ers have spent over 50 % of their snaps in 12/22 personnel this postseason.

(Two TEs or RB + Kyle Juszczyk)

That's in two games where they were trailing.

The Chiefs play 73.6% of their snaps with 3 LBs vs this offensive personnel.

This is where George Kittle and… pic.twitter.com/LEcRSXjhHv

— Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) February 8, 2024

taken from main pregame thread.
This is such a simple play and so effective. GB's personnel suggests 'run' - I think it's 22 (2rb/2te/1wr) - and you can see KC spin into single high (8 in box). Fake the RB toss, the TE fakes a block and leaks out to the backside for a wide open pass. This is the type of creativity that Kyle can expand upon since he has multi-purpose players in Juice (FB/TE) and CMC (RB/WR).

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by tankle104:

The 49ers have spent over 50 % of their snaps in 12/22 personnel this postseason.

(Two TEs or RB + Kyle Juszczyk)

That's in two games where they were trailing.

The Chiefs play 73.6% of their snaps with 3 LBs vs this offensive personnel.

This is where George Kittle and… pic.twitter.com/LEcRSXjhHv

— Jordan Vanek (@JordanVanekDFS) February 8, 2024

taken from main pregame thread.
This is such a simple play and so effective. GB's personnel suggests 'run' - I think it's 22 (2rb/2te/1wr) - and you can see KC spin into single high (8 in box). Fake the RB toss, the TE fakes a block and leaks out to the backside for a wide open pass. This is the type of creativity that Kyle can expand upon since he has multi-purpose players in Juice (FB/TE) and CMC (RB/WR).

I was just in the process of quoting tankle104 and bringing this here. What a great find. Hopefully KC is dumb enough to try and run nickel against 12/22 personnel, because they will get the ball ran down their throats.

alright I didn't find this thread before starting the other one...

Jonny didn't touch on this... so I was curioius if he or anyone else has an idea what we'll do.

Things I am worried about. How will we defend Travis Kelce in the redzone. Seems like the Chiefs find a way to get him one on one....and Mahomes just has to throw it up... It can be a PI, like what happened in our last Super Bowl against them... or a TD like what happened against the Ravens a few weeks ago against one of the best Safeties in the league. Hamilton.

Here are those plays...IMO we need to double him the redzone the whole game... let the other WRs beat us.




Also...in last year's Super Bowl.. the Chiefs had their WRs motion like they were going to come across, only to spin around when they reached another wr and break out. Causing confusion with the defense. Leaving their WR wide the f**k open. I haven't seen many teams do this, but the Chiefs killed the Eagles with that s**t on many occasions in the Redzone in that Super Bowl.

I don't remember offenses trying that against us this season... and was curious if other offenses have tried it this season, and how defenses successfully defend it. It would seem the defender trailing the WR shouldn't over commit.... but they would get to the end of the other side late. And if they are passing off the wr.. welp..s**t goes bad.

The plays from last year's Super Bowl. Andy Reid calls this "Corn Dog". 😐

Originally posted by Afrikan:
alright I didn't find this thread before starting the other one...

Jonny didn't touch on this... so I was curioius if he or anyone else has an idea what we'll do.

Things I am worried about. How will we defend Travis Kelce in the redzone. Seems like the Chiefs find a way to get him one on one....and Mahomes just has to throw it up... It can be a PI, like what happened in our last Super Bowl against them... or a TD like what happened against the Ravens a few weeks ago against one of the best Safeties in the league. Hamilton.

Here are those plays...IMO we need to double him the redzone the whole game... let the other WRs beat us.

Also...in last year's Super Bowl.. the Chiefs had their WRs motion like they were going to come across, only to spin around when they reached another wr and break out. Causing confusion with the defense. Leaving their WR wide the f**k open. I haven't seen many teams do this, but the Chiefs killed the Eagles with that s**t on many occasions in the Redzone in that Super Bowl.

I don't remember offenses trying that against us this season... and was curious if other offenses have tried it this season, and how defenses successfully defend it. It would seem the defender trailing the WR shouldn't over commit.... but they would get to the end of the other side late. And if they are passing off the wr.. welp..s**t goes bad.

The plays from last year's Super Bowl. Andy Reid calls this "Corn Dog". 😐

When it comes to the two plays vs PHI, that's Andy Reid understanding the checks that PHI had in place when a boundary WR goes into motion (they swapped man coverage duties). He also knew that PHI likes to play man in this area of the field. Using that knowledge, he tricked the safeties and earned himself two easy touchdowns. This is on Wilkes to self scout and understand what has been put on film, know that Reid has a way to attack it, and proactively change things up. I don't know what specifically to do, but it's up to Wilks to be one step ahead. Easier said than done.

With Kelce it comes down to admitting that he may be a mismatch for any one defender and make sure he's never single covered on any critical downs. Force KC to throw to any WR not named Rice since they aren't very good when compared to Kelce/Rice.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by Afrikan:
alright I didn't find this thread before starting the other one...

Jonny didn't touch on this... so I was curioius if he or anyone else has an idea what we'll do.

Things I am worried about. How will we defend Travis Kelce in the redzone. Seems like the Chiefs find a way to get him one on one....and Mahomes just has to throw it up... It can be a PI, like what happened in our last Super Bowl against them... or a TD like what happened against the Ravens a few weeks ago against one of the best Safeties in the league. Hamilton.

Here are those plays...IMO we need to double him the redzone the whole game... let the other WRs beat us.

Also...in last year's Super Bowl.. the Chiefs had their WRs motion like they were going to come across, only to spin around when they reached another wr and break out. Causing confusion with the defense. Leaving their WR wide the f**k open. I haven't seen many teams do this, but the Chiefs killed the Eagles with that s**t on many occasions in the Redzone in that Super Bowl.

I don't remember offenses trying that against us this season... and was curious if other offenses have tried it this season, and how defenses successfully defend it. It would seem the defender trailing the WR shouldn't over commit.... but they would get to the end of the other side late. And if they are passing off the wr.. welp..s**t goes bad.

The plays from last year's Super Bowl. Andy Reid calls this "Corn Dog". 😐

When it comes to the two plays vs PHI, that's Andy Reid understanding the checks that PHI had in place when a boundary WR goes into motion (they swapped man coverage duties). He also knew that PHI likes to play man in this area of the field. Using that knowledge, he tricked the safeties and earned himself two easy touchdowns. This is on Wilkes to self scout and understand what has been put on film, know that Reid has a way to attack it, and proactively change things up. I don't know what specifically to do, but it's up to Wilks to be one step ahead. Easier said than done.

With Kelce it comes down to admitting that he may be a mismatch for any one defender and make sure he's never single covered on any critical downs. Force KC to throw to any WR not named Rice since they aren't very good when compared to Kelce/Rice.

Then of course the last time we played them, they killed us with the Jet Sweeps to Bosa's side to slow him down... you HAVE think they gonna try pull this s**t again..



Kyle and Wilks will have to seize this moment. This game has to mean EVERYTHING to them. Kyle's legacy right here!

49ers blitz so infrequently that when they do, it works really well.

Originally posted by thl408:
49ers blitz so infrequently that when they do, it works really well.

The 49ers and Chiefs defenses both rank in the top-5 in pressure rate on 3rd down blitzes this season, with the 49ers generating a league-high 64.8% pressure rate
on such plays entering the Super Bowl (incl. playoffs).#SuperBowlLVIII | #FTTB pic.twitter.com/4YcGYyW9lJ

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 9, 2024

Imo keep with that strategy for this game.

I'd rather Mahomes having to consistently hit his WRs from a slowly closing in pocket... than him popping us because we blitzed him too often.. or... him breaking free from an arm tackle from a blitzer to finding someone for a big play.