Should the 49ers Have Deferred on the OT Kickoff

Originally posted by Cisco0623:
Its such a silly argument when we have A REAL GAME'S RESULT as ACTUAL DATA lol analytics is destroying sports

If you're against analytics, that's one thing. The problem is when people selectively use them to make arguments about optimal decision making and ignore them when they disagree with what the optimal decision is.

I mentioned several times I would have deferred, but there is no analytical argument to be made that indicates that is the optimal decision. Looking at the available models, the optimal decision is to receive (though it is effectively 50/50).

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
If you're against analytics, that's one thing. The problem is when people selectively use them to make arguments about optimal decision making and ignore them when they disagree with what the optimal decision is.

I mentioned several times I would have deferred, but there is no analytical argument to be made that indicates that is the optimal decision. Looking at the available models, the optimal decision is to receive (though it is effectively 50/50).

It's hard to tout analytics, on a situation which never existed until SB Sunday. What analytics are you even looking at, and how are they deriving their conclusion? What variables are they plugging in? I would be interested to know, should any poster have info on those lines..

Reality:

We gave Brock 3 downs. We kicked on 4th down.
We gave Pat 4 downs. They went on 4th down.

An additional down, is hard to fathom how good that is. We operating with impartial info and they operated with full info. The team going 2nd has the kill shot, (unless the team going first acts like maniacs and gets a TD and 2 pt convo). So to me clearly going 2nd is WAY better. Romo at the kickoff said exactly that, you want to go 2nd. Unless you have some other reason, like resting your D, and Kyle said in the immediate aftermath, that played no role in his process. I would love to replay that overtime going 2nd. Even if KC gets us with the TD, it's unlikely they risk a 2 pt convo, going first. Also, it gives us an extra down, so we are still out there on 4th, not kicking a FG, we get one more play.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
It's hard to tout analytics, on a situation which never existed until SB Sunday. What analytics are you even looking at, and how are they deriving their conclusion? What variables are they plugging in? I would be interested to know, should any poster have info on those lines..

Reality:

We gave Brock 3 downs. We kicked on 4th down.
We gave Pat 4 downs. They went on 4th down.

An additional down, is hard to fathom how good that is. We operating with impartial info and they operated with full info. The team going 2nd has the kill shot, (unless the team going first acts like maniacs and gets a TD and 2 pt convo). So to me clearly going 2nd is WAY better. Romo at the kickoff said exactly that, you want to go 2nd. Unless you have some other reason, like resting your D, and Kyle said in the immediate aftermath, that played no role in his process. I would love to replay that overtime going 2nd. Even if KC gets us with the TD, it's unlikely they risk a 2 pt convo, going first. Also, it gives us an extra down, so we are still out there on 4th, not kicking a FG, we get one more play.

It's right there for you to look at and understand. It seems obvious based on this post that you don't have a full understanding of how situations can be modeled beyond looking at historical data. I don't mean to be insulting to you with that comment because I would think it applies to everyone who isn't an actual data scientist.

Beyond that, you're preaching to the choir with your reasoning to defer. I posited a lot of the same points. But again, if you're going to talk about optimal decision making based on analytics… you (and me) appear to be on the wrong side here. Accept it rather than selectively giving analytics credibility only when you agree with the conclusion.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
It's hard to tout analytics, on a situation which never existed until SB Sunday. What analytics are you even looking at, and how are they deriving their conclusion? What variables are they plugging in? I would be interested to know, should any poster have info on those lines..

Reality:

We gave Brock 3 downs. We kicked on 4th down.
We gave Pat 4 downs. They went on 4th down.

An additional down, is hard to fathom how good that is. We operating with impartial info and they operated with full info. The team going 2nd has the kill shot, (unless the team going first acts like maniacs and gets a TD and 2 pt convo). So to me clearly going 2nd is WAY better. Romo at the kickoff said exactly that, you want to go 2nd. Unless you have some other reason, like resting your D, and Kyle said in the immediate aftermath, that played no role in his process. I would love to replay that overtime going 2nd. Even if KC gets us with the TD, it's unlikely they risk a 2 pt convo, going first. Also, it gives us an extra down, so we are still out there on 4th, not kicking a FG, we get one more play.

It's right there for you to look at and understand. It seems obvious based on this post that you don't have a full understanding of how situations can be modeled beyond looking at historical data. I don't mean to be insulting to you with that comment because I would think it applies to everyone who isn't an actual data scientist.

Beyond that, you're preaching to the choir with your reasoning to defer. I posited a lot of the same points. But again, if you're going to talk about optimal decision making based on analytics… you (and me) appear to be on the wrong side here. Accept it rather than selectively giving analytics credibility only when you agree with the conclusion.

It's right where? Any link?

How is still up for a debate? Everyone should agree what the right choice was. Because every other College Coach has already!

Kyle f**ked up. Simple as that. Him trying to pass blame on the analytics crew lol. He should have also told them about WHO Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are... their mindset. The options they would have... four downs... and a 2pt to end it. Told them to add those to the data before making that idiotic decision on the most important moment of his life.

Originally posted by Afrikan:
How is still up for a debate? Everyone should agree what the right choice was. Because every other College Coach has already!

Kyle f**ked up. Simple as that. Him trying to pass blame on the analytics crew lol. He should have also told them about WHO Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are... their mindset. The options they would have... four downs... and a 2pt to end it. Told them to add those to the data before making that idiotic decision on the most important moment of his life.

The infuriating thing, is Kyle hates analytics, and has ranted against them. The one time he leans into it, and he effs us. I would love to see how they model taking the ball first as a good idea, in a detailed deep dive. Kyle played checkers in OT and Andy was playing chess.

Originally posted by Afrikan:
How is still up for a debate? Everyone should agree what the right choice was. Because every other College Coach has already!

Kyle f**ked up. Simple as that. Him trying to pass blame on the analytics crew lol. He should have also told them about WHO Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are... their mindset. The options they would have... four downs... and a 2pt to end it. Told them to add those to the data before making that idiotic decision on the most important moment of his life.

Honestly, I can see it both ways. The bigger issue is kicking a field goal and thinking there would be a 3rd possession. That was the faulty logic of choosing first. His 3rd quarter, penalties on offense, and approaching football like things will just consistently flow as drawn up are bigger issues to me. Those bigger issues reduce the margin of error for this team.

Even if they had taken the ball 2nd, I don't have confidence that we would've matched the Chiefs (I think they would've scored 8 points if they got the ball first). The 3rd quarter is what put us in the predicament for it even to come down to an OT decision.

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:

Originally posted by Cisco0623:
Its such a silly argument when we have A REAL GAME'S RESULT as ACTUAL DATA lol analytics is destroying sports

If you're against analytics, that's one thing. The problem is when people selectively use them to make arguments about optimal decision making and ignore them when they disagree with what the optimal decision is.

I mentioned several times I would have deferred, but there is no analytical argument to be made that indicates that is the optimal decision. Looking at the available models, the optimal decision is to receive (though it is effectively 50/50).

It is very delicate/subjective to me. I think analytics is fine to assist someone in making a decision, but should not be the ultimate guiding light/deciding factor either if that makes sense. I believe it can become a crutch to a coaches instincts and has just gotten too deep. It can be a coaches way to defer responsibility in their own mind tbh.

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:

Originally posted by Afrikan:
How is still up for a debate? Everyone should agree what the right choice was. Because every other College Coach has already!

Kyle f**ked up. Simple as that. Him trying to pass blame on the analytics crew lol. He should have also told them about WHO Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are... their mindset. The options they would have... four downs... and a 2pt to end it. Told them to add those to the data before making that idiotic decision on the most important moment of his life.

Honestly, I can see it both ways. The bigger issue is kicking a field goal and thinking there would be a 3rd possession. That was the faulty logic of choosing first. His 3rd quarter, penalties on offense, and approaching football like things will just consistently flow as drawn up are bigger issues to me. Those bigger issues reduce the margin of error for this team.

Even if they had taken the ball 2nd, I don't have confidence that we would've matched the Chiefs (I think they would've scored 8 points if they got the ball first). The 3rd quarter is what put us in the predicament for it even to come down to an OT decision.

But we would have had four downs to do so... with the 4th down being expected... not a 4th and inches decision type of situation. But a guaranteed 4th down effecting the decisions to call what on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down.

And we would have went out on our terms... we would have had the ball in our hands. Rather go down like that. And I'm sure the players would have as well... instead of watching Patrick F'n Mahomes march down the field, like the whole world knew he would...being given four downs.

I'll ask others here.. do yall ever envision a HC ever giving Mahomes four downs ever again?

Besides Kyle obviously. He would do it again, the stubborn f**k.

Originally posted by Afrikan:
But we would have had four downs to do so... with the 4th down being expected... not a 4th and inches decision type of situation. But a guaranteed 4th down effecting the decisions to call what on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down.

And we would have went out on our teams... we would have had the ball in our hands. Rather go down like that. And I'm sure the players would have as well... instead of watching Patrick F'n Mahomes march down the field, like the whole world knew he would...being given four downs.

I'll ask others here.. do yall ever envision a HC ever giving Mahomes four downs ever again?

Besides Kyle obviously. He would do it again, the stubborn f**k.

Yup. It's why I am curious on the take the ball first models, and how they interpret the game. To win taking it first, Kyle refers to the we want 3rd possession logic. So he's banking on a tie after 2 possessions. Hard to get a tie after two periods. KC was hellbent on going for two. And was this not fairly predictable? If you take time and think it thru, then sure, KC wants Mahomes to decide it from 2 yards, rather than kicking off and giving us the ball into sudden death.

So a tie relies on both teams not scoring any points, or both teams trading FGs. So on some critical level, the model Kyle embraced, relied on Wilks getting the better.. of MAHOMES. In gut check time. You know, the Wilks that Kyle doesn't trust, and has since fired. He thought that guy would take down Patrick effing Mahomes. Cuz of the model. Pretty crazy, huh..

I have suspicions that if Kyle took the time to actually go over the model with the team, he may have in fact changed it. If he spent more time on it, and with the club, he maybe or the team maybe points out the flaws.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

The story of Shanahan's life.

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
If you're against analytics, that's one thing. The problem is when people selectively use them to make arguments about optimal decision making and ignore them when they disagree with what the optimal decision is.

I mentioned several times I would have deferred, but there is no analytical argument to be made that indicates that is the optimal decision. Looking at the available models, the optimal decision is to receive (though it is effectively 50/50).

It's hard to tout analytics, on a situation which never existed until SB Sunday. What analytics are you even looking at, and how are they deriving their conclusion? What variables are they plugging in? I would be interested to know, should any poster have info on those lines..

Reality:

We gave Brock 3 downs. We kicked on 4th down.
We gave Pat 4 downs. They went on 4th down.

An additional down, is hard to fathom how good that is. We operating with impartial info and they operated with full info. The team going 2nd has the kill shot, (unless the team going first acts like maniacs and gets a TD and 2 pt convo). So to me clearly going 2nd is WAY better. Romo at the kickoff said exactly that, you want to go 2nd. Unless you have some other reason, like resting your D, and Kyle said in the immediate aftermath, that played no role in his process. I would love to replay that overtime going 2nd. Even if KC gets us with the TD, it's unlikely they risk a 2 pt convo, going first. Also, it gives us an extra down, so we are still out there on 4th, not kicking a FG, we get one more play.

Don't worry, that 3rd possession is coming any day now

Originally posted by mcwoot:
Don't worry, that 3rd possession is coming any day now

yessir!

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Mahomes visible shock at the 49ers taking the ball 👀 pic.twitter.com/0zmR4VTMP5

— 📽️ Red Tribe Cinema (@ClayWendler) February 14, 2024

THAT is the footage I was talking about. It's from NFL Turning Point, that airs on ESPN+.

Someone needs to post of the footage of the refs in disbelief.