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Originally posted by Afrikan:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Mahomes visible shock at the 49ers taking the ball 👀 pic.twitter.com/0zmR4VTMP5
— 📽️ Red Tribe Cinema (@ClayWendler) February 14, 2024
THAT is the footage I was talking about. It's from NFL Turning Point, that airs on ESPN+.
Someone needs to post of the footage of the refs in disbelief.
Originally posted by 49erKing:
OOOOHHHHH MAHOMES LOOKED STUNNED WHEN 49ERS ELECTED TO RECEIVE FIRST IN OT!
CHIEF PLAYERS SHOCKED BY 49ERS OT DECISION!
ANDY REID ALMOST SUFFERS A HEART ATTACK AFTER 49ERS ELECT TO RECEIVE!
TAYLOR SWIFT LOOKS TO BE HAVING AN ORGASM AFTER WARNER SAYS WE WANT THE BALL FIRST!!!!
Originally posted by 5thSFG:
Why did we kick a field goal in OT?
It was clearly the wrong decision to receive the ball first. In blackjack if you hit on 12 and bust it was clearly the wrong decision even if analytics suggest the decision was justified
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Originally posted by 5thSFG:
Why did we kick a field goal in OT?
It was clearly the wrong decision to receive the ball first. In blackjack if you hit on 12 and bust it was clearly the wrong decision even if analytics suggest the decision was justified
Cuz Kyle got tight like he does. He knows that if the FG is missed, Moody takes the blame. Or if KC marches downfield, Wilks takes the blame. He rarely trusts the ballgame to come down to his O making a play, cuz he gets worried over getting exposed by Spags, like he did on the 3rd down plays. He'd rather have it determined by our crappier ST and D, mostly out of playing it safe.
I've been posting for years, that if KS is gonna take us where we need to go, he'll need to roll some dice. Going for it on 4th and 3 was a start. The trick play was another. He needed more of that.
Originally posted by 5thSFG:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Originally posted by 5thSFG:
Why did we kick a field goal in OT?
It was clearly the wrong decision to receive the ball first. In blackjack if you hit on 12 and bust it was clearly the wrong decision even if analytics suggest the decision was justified
Cuz Kyle got tight like he does. He knows that if the FG is missed, Moody takes the blame. Or if KC marches downfield, Wilks takes the blame. He rarely trusts the ballgame to come down to his O making a play, cuz he gets worried over getting exposed by Spags, like he did on the 3rd down plays. He'd rather have it determined by our crappier ST and D, mostly out of playing it safe.
I've been posting for years, that if KS is gonna take us where we need to go, he'll need to roll some dice. Going for it on 4th and 3 was a start. The trick play was another. He needed more of that.
Missed the point of the question. We kicked the field goal because we didn't know we needed a touchdown… because we got the ball first. Receiving the ball first but us at a disadvantage in this game 👍🏻
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Originally posted by 5thSFG:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Originally posted by 5thSFG:
Why did we kick a field goal in OT?
It was clearly the wrong decision to receive the ball first. In blackjack if you hit on 12 and bust it was clearly the wrong decision even if analytics suggest the decision was justified
Cuz Kyle got tight like he does. He knows that if the FG is missed, Moody takes the blame. Or if KC marches downfield, Wilks takes the blame. He rarely trusts the ballgame to come down to his O making a play, cuz he gets worried over getting exposed by Spags, like he did on the 3rd down plays. He'd rather have it determined by our crappier ST and D, mostly out of playing it safe.
I've been posting for years, that if KS is gonna take us where we need to go, he'll need to roll some dice. Going for it on 4th and 3 was a start. The trick play was another. He needed more of that.
Missed the point of the question. We kicked the field goal because we didn't know we needed a touchdown… because we got the ball first. Receiving the ball first but us at a disadvantage in this game 👍🏻
Gotcha. You are correct, I see major advantage, in going 2nd. So does KC and their analytics team.
I have been asking for the take the ball first case. No one has given me the rationale for that. I suspect, when ppl are doing their 100k of simulations, they are looking at random QBs. So maybe vs Zach Wilson, you want the ball first and if you have to punt, you can force him to punt, then you get your 3rd possession advantage. Hardly applies to facing Mahomes and Reid.
Originally posted by mcwoot:
To me the only way going first makes sense is if you are committed to 8 points or bust on the first drive
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Originally posted by mcwoot:
To me the only way going first makes sense is if you are committed to 8 points or bust on the first drive
What's interesting is there is a lot of strategy baked into the new playoff OT format. What's shameful, is Kyle didn't feel the need to really think hard on it, or go over it with the squad. It's not coincidental, that the more prepared team, won the game. They gave it more thought, and came to better conclusions. Like you want the ball 2nd. And 2 pt conversions play a role, to deny 3rd possession.
Originally posted by mcwoot:
To me the only way going first makes sense is if you are committed to 8 points or bust on the first drive
This flowchart shows my results from simulating NFL playoff overtime, a hot topic since the Super Bowl.
— Walker Harrison (@WalkWearsCrocs) February 18, 2024
My numbers indicate that there is effectively no advantage between choosing to kick or receive, which aligns with research done by @bburkeESPN and @StatsbyLopez .
Details⬇️ pic.twitter.com/G2HEZnKwSD
Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Originally posted by mcwoot:
To me the only way going first makes sense is if you are committed to 8 points or bust on the first drive
I thought the same initially, but by the numbers going for two on the first drive would be the wrong choice.
It's briefly explained in this series of tweets:
This flowchart shows my results from simulating NFL playoff overtime, a hot topic since the Super Bowl.
— Walker Harrison (@WalkWearsCrocs) February 18, 2024
My numbers indicate that there is effectively no advantage between choosing to kick or receive, which aligns with research done by @bburkeESPN and @StatsbyLopez .
Details⬇️ pic.twitter.com/G2HEZnKwSD
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
There can be two convos. Is the OT format in general terms balanced between two sides. That's a convo. Should we receive or kick, in this exact game, with this precise set of variables? A different convo. If you took your cute flowchart to 49er households as Mahomes was taking the field for drive 2, I think you would get some different responses. Hard to use generalized data, and just slap it onto Mahomes v Wilks and call it good.
Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
There can be two convos. Is the OT format in general terms balanced between two sides. That's a convo. Should we receive or kick, in this exact game, with this precise set of variables? A different convo. If you took your cute flowchart to 49er households as Mahomes was taking the field for drive 2, I think you would get some different responses. Hard to use generalized data, and just slap it onto Mahomes v Wilks and call it good.
Wouldn't ask 49ers fan households, lol. Fans are dumb. It's also not my flow chart. It's from an analytics professional and it's in agreement with others.
And like I've said to you many times, on multiple topics related to this game, you're free to say f**k the numbers just go by feel. That's what coaches have done forever. The problem I have is when you argue the numbers aren't the numbers, and even make up numbers to suit your argument.
You said we were flying by the seat of our pants. That's pretty obviously not the case and is actually what you would prefer the coach to do.
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Yes, I suspected you are not in fact, Walker Harrison. Your chart as in, you are sharing it. My point would be if you are running numbers that include all 32 teams, how do those apply to KC? Do they apply? Should they apply? Do you run simulations of beating Zach Wilson in OT, and say ok based on that, we should have the same strategy vs Mahomes? It's nonsense imo.
In terms of 'flying by the seat of our pants'. There's a definition for that: to do something difficult without the necessary skill or experience. Also: you use your instincts to tell you what to do in a new or difficult situation rather than following a plan.
That's what happened. Kyle said postgame, we don't have experience with OT. Clearly he didn't plan for it. He didn't review it with the club. The players were chaotic in the moment, not really getting the rules. Some said oh we win with a TD. Others had to correct. KC actually spent a lot more time on it, and even without playing in it, they drilled for it. We did not. So I think you took that comment, and you slap it on whatever you like, but it's a reference to our lack of preparation for OT, which is documented by our own players. You can listen to our own players admit they didn't go over OT at any point prior to the game. Wasn't discussed.
Even in your above chart, there is no argument to take the ball. At best, it's 50/50. It is just a sheepish well he didn't eff it up, cuz see, the chart.
Notice a lot of the scenarios, per your chart (you are sharing), are you score 0, and your opponent responds with 0. Anyone with eyes, can tell late game KC was moving it up and down. They ain't scoring zero.