Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Yes, I suspected you are not in fact, Walker Harrison. Your chart as in, you are sharing it. My point would be if you are running numbers that include all 32 teams, how do those apply to KC? Do they apply? Should they apply? Do you run simulations of beating Zach Wilson in OT, and say ok based on that, we should have the same strategy vs Mahomes? It's nonsense imo.
In terms of 'flying by the seat of our pants'. There's a definition for that: to do something difficult without the necessary skill or experience. Also: you use your instincts to tell you what to do in a new or difficult situation rather than following a plan.
That's what happened. Kyle said postgame, we don't have experience with OT. Clearly he didn't plan for it. He didn't review it with the club. The players were chaotic in the moment, not really getting the rules. Some said oh we win with a TD. Others had to correct. KC actually spent a lot more time on it, and even without playing in it, they drilled for it. We did not. So I think you took that comment, and you slap it on whatever you like, but it's a reference to our lack of preparation for OT, which is documented by our own players. You can listen to our own players admit they didn't go over OT at any point prior to the game. Wasn't discussed.
Even in your above chart, there is no argument to take the ball. At best, it's 50/50. It is just a sheepish well he didn't eff it up, cuz see, the chart.
Notice a lot of the scenarios, per your chart (you are sharing), are you score 0, and your opponent responds with 0. Anyone with eyes, can tell late game KC was moving it up and down. They ain't scoring zero.
You seem to struggle understanding the nuance of the argument and keeping up with things that have been said. I've told you multiple times I would have deferred myself. The point of the argument is exactly that there is no actual advantage one way or the other. It's not a massive strategic failure (as you phrased it) to receive the ball in this spot… and if you look at the actual model beyond the opening decision, you would see there are advantages that line up with the guy who made the decision's reasons for doing so. You have described this disingenuously as 'playing for a 3rd possession' when it would accurately be described as making a decision with a 3rd possession being a possibility.
Quintessential monday morning quarterbacking with no substance to back up the argument other than what happened didn't go our way.
The bottom line is we needed to score a td and get a stop and couldn't do either. The new rules never actually came into play.
I addressed in post 207, that sure the NFL doesn't want inherently flawed OT. They don't want the coin toss deciding the winner. So in generalized terms with 100k sims, you can model this as 50/50. I gotcha man, I am with you. And I posted this already FYI..
I do question if you want some generalized model not specific to this game, deciding the outcome or if it means anything at all. I definitely want the ball 2nd, and full info, and a chance to operate on 4 downs and walk off my opponent. That's not monday morning anything, I felt in the moment, as Warner uttered the words, that we effed up. KC agreed, also in the moment, cuz they had a plan for the ball 2nd, and the 2 pt conversion.
Realize we had 3 downs, and them 4 downs, and that's in part why you got the outcome you did. This is a trade. Kyle traded a 1st and 2nd possession disadvantage, cuz he wanted a 3rd possession advantage, that we never got to. You can lean on your model for why he made the right move. I don't think he did make the right move. My opinion.
Also kinda realize the logic pretzel you are in. I can admit, you rightly nailed a lot of your Wilks convo, for months. You didn't really trust our D all year. Yet here, you trust Wilks to D up Mahomes and get it to 3rd possession. So did Kyle. That's what the whole model leans on to justify taking the ball 1st, btw. To get to 3rd possession, the only way is we hold Mahomes to 0, after scoring 0, or we hold him to 3, after scoring 3. Find it hard to believe you would say that Wilks has got this, vs Mahomes in that situation (tad comical btw). I didn't think Wilks had it, or we had it, as a D. I figured Mahomes would walk us off. It's effing Mahomes man. Would have been very lucky to get to 3rd possession. At the end there, KC has us figured out. That's often what GOATs do, in winning time. And it's something your model probably captures not at all.
