Through the first eight games of the 2024 NFL season, the San Francisco 49ers haven't looked quite right on either side of the ball. Injuries have obviously played a big part, but it's hard to deny that what we've seen so far has been an uneven performance. While most expected this to be the case on defense, it's the offensive performance that's left some scratching their heads.
The obvious missing ingredient is Christian McCaffrey, and his absence has been felt in a variety of ways. While the impact of not having the reigning Offensive Player of the Year may not be showing up in the rushing statistics (San Francisco currently ranks fourth in rushing yards per game with 159), it's evident that not being able to rely on McCaffrey's complete skill set is hurting the team in other areas.
In 2023, the 49ers had the fewest third down conversion attempts in the league with just 179 over the entire regular season. That was 23 fewer than the next closest team. They were also fourth in third down conversions at 47.5%. It was the best of both worlds in terms of avoiding and converting the crucial third down.
The team hasn't been as fortunate in 2024, already facing 97 third downs (on pace for 206) and converting at a 43.3% clip. One could argue that not having McCaffrey in the passing game has led to more straining down and distance situations, as Brock Purdy's mostly avoided the check downs to his running backs. Led by McCaffrey's 67 grabs, running backs caught 76 of Purdy's 308 completions in 2023 (24.6%). This season Jordan Mason, Isaac Guerendo and Patrick Taylor have combined for just 15 receptions (9.6% of Purdy's completions).
The red zone has also been an issue, and this could be tied directly to McCaffrey as well. Last season the 49ers had the highest redzone percentage (67.5%) with 45 touchdowns in 67 attempts. McCaffrey led the way with 18 of those scores. To this point in 2024, while San Francisco's tied for the most red zone appearances with 35, they've only converted 48.6% of the time which is 27th in the league.
So, while moving the ball isn't an issue, scoring at the same rate inside the 20-yard line and outside of it is. San Francisco had 15 touchdowns of 20-plus yards last year during the regular season, with Deebo Samuel (five), George Kittle (three), McCaffrey (three), Brandon Aiyuk (two), Mason (one) and Kyle Juszczyk (one) all contributing. In eight total games this season, the offense has only managed two such scores, one by Jauan Jennings and one by Samuel.
Challenges will still remain through the next nine games. Aiyuk, who might be the only real deep threat, won't be returning after tearing his ACL. While McCaffrey is expected to be back soon, it's remains to be seen if he'll be limited by the Achilles' tendinitis that's kept him sidelined. Regardless, if the 49ers are to return to the Super Bowl, they've need to find ways to be more efficient and explosive on offense.
